Abstract
Estimation of time in project that involves several activities requires expert’s knowledge to give an accurate estimation of project duration. In most project, Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) are used to estimate completion time of project with the basic assumption of normality. This assumption is accepted by many scholars without assessing the errors in the result. Thus, this paper examines the validity of this assumption for activities with different probability distribution functions. The effect on the project’s completion time is addressed by considering a single probability distribution for the entire activities of a network and mixed probability distribution functions within the network, using a computer based simulation called ARENA in Villa house construction project. The findings show that the project completion time for activities that follow different probability distribution function do not follow normality.
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© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
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Tesfaye, E., Girma, K., Berhan, E., Beshah, B. (2015). A Simulation of Project Completion Probability Using Different Probability Distribution Functions. In: Abraham, A., Krömer, P., Snasel, V. (eds) Afro-European Conference for Industrial Advancement. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 334. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13572-4_11
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13572-4_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-13571-7
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