Development Consequences of Armed Conflict

  • Scott Gates
  • Håvard Hegre
  • Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
  • Håvard Strand
Part of the Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development book series (DTSD, volume 4)


This paper conducts the first analysis of the effect of armed conflict on progress in meeting the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals. We also examine the effect of conflict on economic growth. Conflict has clear detrimental effects on the reduction of poverty and hunger, on primary education, on the reduction of child mortality, and on access to potable water. A medium-sized conflict with 2500 battle deaths is estimated to increase undernourishment an additional 3.3 %, reduce life expectancy by about 1 year, increases infant mortality by 10 %, and deprives an additional 1.8 % of the population from access to potable water.


War’s consequences Development Conflict MDGs Growth 



The chapter is a reprint of Gates et al. (2012) with permission from Elsevier. The first paragraph of this chapter was added to the original article. The work is in turn based on a background paper written for the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report. We especially thank Gary Milante, Sarah Cliffe, Colin Scott, and Nadia Piffaretti at the World Bank. We also thank Tilman Brück. Olaf DeGroot, Jim Fearon, Anke Hoeffler, Andy Mack, and other participants at a World Bank Brownbag Seminar, the Households in Conflict Network Workshops (in Berlin and Lisbon), a Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs workshop, the 2010 Tinbergen meetings in Amsterdam, and the 2011 meeting of the International Studies Association for their valuable comments. We thank the World Bank and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for financial support.


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Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Scott Gates
    • 1
    • 2
  • Håvard Hegre
    • 1
    • 3
  • Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
    • 1
  • Håvard Strand
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Peace Research Institute OsloOsloNorway
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of OsloOsloNorway
  3. 3.Department of Peace and Conflict ResearchUppsala UniversityUppsalaSweden

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