Fuzzy Climate Scenarios for Temperature Indicate that Things Could Be Worse Than Previously Thought
Linear evolving emission scenarios are used instead of those of IPCC. They preserve, indeed they cover, the ranges of the corresponding IPCC values for the concentrations, forcings and global temperatures. Then, through fuzzy rules among concentrations, climate sensitivity and global temperature change, a fuzzy model has been conformed and used to explore uncertainties due to: not knowing what the emissions are going to be in the future, the one related to the climate sensitivity of the models (this has to do with different parameterizations of processes used in the models) and the uncertainties in the temperature maps produced by the models. Furthermore we show maps corresponding to 1, 2, etc., degrees centigrade of global and regional temperature increase and discuss the timing of exceeding them. Instead of talk about the uncertainty in temperature at a certain date we talk about the uncertainty in the date certain temperature is reached.
KeywordsTemperature climate change scenarios Uncertainty Greenhouse gas emissions Climate sensitivity
This work was supported by the Programa de Investigación en Cambio Climático (PINCC, www.pincc.unam.mx) of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México.
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