Abstract
With the development of Online Social Network, more and more people are inclined to use OSNs to publish information due to its strong interpersonal interaction. In this paper we apply epidemic model to demonstrate user adoption and abandonment procedure in OSNs, where adoption is analogous to the infective and abandonment is analogous to the removal. We modified the traditional SIRS model by taking infective-remoal theory into consideration such that the population of the removal will influence the infective. The modified irSIRS model is verified by real data crawled from Renren Network and Sina Weibo, and the best fit curve exhibit the infective population increase rapidly and decline slowly to an proportion in future time. Through experiments irSIRS model is proved to predict demographic evolution well.
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Zhu, X., Nie, Y., Li, A. (2014). Demographic Prediction of Online Social Network Based on Epidemic Model. In: Han, W., Huang, Z., Hu, C., Zhang, H., Guo, L. (eds) Web Technologies and Applications. APWeb 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8710. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11119-3_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11119-3_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-11118-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-11119-3
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