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Managing Hydropower Under Climate Change in the Mekong Tributaries

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Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty

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Abstract

The Mekong Basin is threatened by accelerated hydropower development and extreme events from climate change. The transboundary Srepok, Sesan, and Sekong (3S) basins contribute the largest discharge of Mekong River’s tributaries, providing critical ecosystem services to the Tonle Sap and the Mekong delta downstream, including sediments, biodiversity, and fish production. This study aims to assess the potential impact of climate change and hydropower development scenarios on flow patterns and hydropower production in the 3S through multi-general circulation models (GCMs), hydrological simulations, and reservoir operation models. Full hydropower development coupled with energy-focused operations will increase dry season flows by 96 % and reduce wet season flows by 25 % at the basin outlet as compared to historical baseline conditions. Climate change is likely to decrease dry season flows by 6–24 %, but projections of wet season and annual flows using different climate change scenarios and GCMs are relatively uncertain. Energy production in the 3S is not likely to be affected substantially by climate-driven changes in flows; only minor changes resulting from either A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and different GCMs. Predicted climate change, however, will result in significant changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme flood events, which will undoubtedly impact on future dam design and operation rules. Coordination of hydropower operations within the 3S basin will be critical to maximise development benefits within the basin and reduce negative environmental impacts at the local, national, and transboundary levels.

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Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank the Mekong River Commission for providing the databases used in this paper. Funding for this project was provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation through a project entitled “Critical Basin at Risk: Assessing and managing ecosystem pressures from development and climate change in the 3S basin”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative, Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR

    Thanapon Piman

  2. Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

    Thanapon Piman, Tom A. Cochrane & Mauricio E. Arias

  3. Information and Knowledge Management, Mekong River Commission, Phnom Penh, Cambodia

    Nguyen D. Dat & Ornanong Vonnarart

Authors
  1. Thanapon Piman
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  2. Tom A. Cochrane
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  3. Mauricio E. Arias
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  4. Nguyen D. Dat
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  5. Ornanong Vonnarart
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thanapon Piman .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Klong Luang, Pathum Thani, Thailand

    Sangam Shrestha

  2. Food Engineering & Bioprocess Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Klong Luang, Thailand

    Anil K. Anal

  3. School of Env., Res. and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, City, Thailand

    P. Abdul Salam

  4. The Netherlands Ntl. Committee IHP-HWRP, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Michael van der Valk

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Piman, T., Cochrane, T.A., Arias, M.E., Dat, N.D., Vonnarart, O. (2015). Managing Hydropower Under Climate Change in the Mekong Tributaries. In: Shrestha, S., Anal, A., Salam, P., van der Valk, M. (eds) Managing Water Resources under Climate Uncertainty. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10467-6_11

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