Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors pp 67–91Cite as

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirement and Rice Yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Springer Water ((SPWA))

Abstract

This study analyzes the temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirement (IWR) and yield for rainfed rice and irrigated paddy respectively at Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project (NIP) in Myanmar. Climate projections from two General Circulation Models (GCMs) namely ECHAM5 (scenario A2 and A1B) and HadCM3 (scenarios A2 and B2) were derived for NIP for future time windows (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The climate variables were downscaled to basin level by using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Calibrated and validated AquaCrop v4.0 model was used to forecast the rainfed (May–October) yield and irrigation water requirement for irrigated paddy (November–April) under future climate. The analysis shows a decreasing trend in maximum temperature (−0.8 to +0.1 °C) for the three scenarios and three time windows considered; however, an increasing trend is observed for minimum temperature (+0.2 to +0.4 °C) for all cases. The analysis on precipitation also suggests that rainfall in wet season is expected to vary largely from −29 % (2080s; A1B) to +21.9 % (2080s; B2) relative to the average rainfall of the baseline period. A higher variation is observed for the rainfall in dry season ranging from −42 % for 2080s, B2; and +96 % in case of 2020s, A2 scenario. A decreasing trend of irrigation water requirement is observed for irrigated paddy in the study area under the three scenarios indicating that small irrigation schemes are suitable to meet the requirements. An increasing trend in the yield of rainfed paddy was estimated under climate change demonstrating the increased food security in the region.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Abedinpour M, Sarangi A, Rajput TBS, Singh M, Pathak H, Ahmad T (2012) Performance evaluation of AquaCrop model for maize crop in a semi-arid environment. Agric Water Manag 110:55–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ADB (2009) The economics of climate change in Southeast Asia: a regional review. Report by Asian Development Bank. Asian Development Bank, Jakarta

    Google Scholar 

  • Alcamo J, Dronin N, Endejan M, Golubev G, Kirilenko A (2007) A new assessment of climate change impacts on food production shortfalls and water availability in Russia. Glob Environ Change 17:429–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandrov V, Eitinger J, Cajic V, Oberforster M (2002) Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria. Glob Change Biol 8(4):372–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration-guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Amthor J (1998) Perspective on the relative insignificance of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration to crop yield. Field Crops Res 58:109–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Artlert K, Chaleeraktrakoon C, Nguyen V (2013) Modeling and analysis of rainfall processes in the context of climate change for Mekong, Chi and Mun river basin (Thailand). J Hydro-environ Res 7:2–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Babel MS, Agarwal A, Swain DK, Herath S (2011) Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand. Clim Res 46:137–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bárdossy A, Plate EJ (1992) Space-time model of daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation pattern. Water Resour Res 28(5):1247–1259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Silva CS, Weatherhead EK, Knox JW, Rodriguez-Diaz JA (2007) Predicting the impacts of climate change-A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka. Agric Water Manage 93:19–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling WE, Apps M (2005) Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: a view from the IPCC. Clim Change 70:165–189

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erda L, Wei X, Yinlong X, Yue L, Liping B, Liyong X (2005) Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2149–2154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (1998) Crop evapotranspiration—guidelines for computing crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome, Italy

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2009) FAO/WFP crop and food security assessment mission to Myanmar. Special report by Food and Agriculture Organization. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Fuhrer J (2003) Agroecosystem responses to combinations of elevated CO2, ozone and global climate change. Agric Ecosyst Environ 97:1–20

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gerten D, Heinke J, Hoff H, Biemans H, Fader M, Waha K (2011) Global water availability and requirements for future food production. J Hydrometeor 12:885–899

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Greets S, Raes D, Garcia M, Miranda R, Cusicanqui JA, Taboada C, Mendoza J, Huanca R, Mamani A, Condori O, Mamani J, Morales B, Osco V, Steduto P (2009) Simulating yield response of Quinoa to water availability with AquaCrop. Agron J 101:499–508

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horie T (2005) Climate change and food security with special attention to rice. In: Proceedings of global environ action (GEA) conference for sustainable future 2005, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • IFPRI (2009) Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Food policy report of International Food Policy Research Institute. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Inthavon T, Jintrawet A, Chinvanno S, Snidvongs A (2004) Impact of climate change on rainfed lowland rice production in Savannakhet Provience, Lao PDR. Report of APN CAPABLE project, Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the 4th assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang Y, Khan S, Ma X (2009) Climate change impacts on crop yield, crop water productivity and food security—a review. Prog Nat Sci 19:1665–1674

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan P, Swain DK, Bhaskar BC, Nayak SK, Dash RN (2007) Impact of elevated CO2 and temperature on rice yield and methods of adaptation as evaluated by crop simulation studies. Agric Ecosyst Environ 122:233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laux P, Jäckel G, Tingem RM, Kunstmann H (2010) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed conditions in Cameroon—a method to improve attainable crop yield by planting date adaptations. Agric For Meteorol 150:1258–1271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey ADB, Nösberger J, Ort DR (2006) Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312:1918–1921

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Maeda EE, Pellikka PKE, Clark BJF, Siljander M (2011) Prospective changes in irrigation water requirements caused by agricultural expansion and climate changes in the eastern arc mountains of Kenya. J Environ Manag 92:982–993

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mkhabela MS, Bullock PR (2012) Performance of the FAO AquaCrop model for wheat grain yield and soil moisture simulation in Western Canada. Agric Water Manag 110:16–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Molua EL (2009) An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon. Glob Planet Change 67:205–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nuorteva P, Keskinen M, Varis O (2010) Water, livelihoods and climate change adaptation in the Tonle Sap Lake area, Cambodia: learning for the past to understand the future. J Water Clim Change 1(01):87–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olesen JE, Jensen T, Petersen J (2000) Sensitivity of field-scale winter wheat production in Denmark to climate variability and climate change. Clim Res 15:221–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olesen JE, Carter TR, Díaz-Ambrona CH, Fronzek S, Heidmann T, Hicker T, Holt T, Minguez MI, Morales T, Palutikof JP, Quemada M, Ruiz-Ramos M, Rubæk GH, Sau F, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007) Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim Change 81:123–143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E (2009a) AquaCrop—the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: II. Main algorithms and software description. Agron J 101:438–447

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Raes D, Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Fereres E (2009b) Crop water productivity. Calculation procedures and calibration guidance. AquaCrop version 3.0. FAO, Land and Water Development Division, Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Russo JM, Zack JW (1997) Downscaling GCM output with a mesoscale model. J Environ Manag 49:19–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SeaStart (2006) Southeast Asia regional Vulnerability to changing water resource and extreme hydrological events due to climate change. Final technical report of Southeast Asia START regional center technical report no. 15. Bangkok, Thailand

    Google Scholar 

  • Shrestha S, Gyawali B, Bhattarai U (2013) Impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements for rice-wheat cultivation in Bagmati River basin, Nepal. J Water Clim Change (in press)

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith JB, Hulme M (1998) Climate change scenarios (Chapter 3). In: Feenstra J, Burton I, Smith JB, Tol RJS (eds) Handbook on methods of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies. UNEP/IES, Version 2.0, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Steduto P, Hsiao TC, Raes D, Fereres E (2009) AquaCrop—the FAO crop model to simulate yield response to water: I. Concepts and underlying principles. Agron J 101(3):426–437

    Google Scholar 

  • UNDP (2011) Integrated household living conditions survey in Myanmar. Poverty profile report of Myanmar. United Nations Development Program, Yangoon

    Google Scholar 

  • USDA (1970) Irrigation water requirements. Technical release no. 21. USDA Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Wassmann R (2007) Coping with climate change. International Rice Research Institute, Manila. http://beta.irri.org/news/images/stories/ricetoday/63/feature_coping%20with%20climate%20change.pdf. Accessed 12 November 2012

  • Wilby RL, Dawson CW, Barrow EM (2002) SDSM—a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environ Model Softw 17:147–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yano T, Aydin M, Haraguchi T (2007) Impact of climate change on irrigation demand and crop growth in a Mediterranean environment of Turkey. Sensors 7:2297–2315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Young KB, Cramer GL, Wailes EJ (1998) An economic assessment of the Myanmar rice sector: current developments and prospects. Report of Arkansas global rice project. Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, Arkansas

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Klong Luang, Thailand

    Sangam Shrestha

Authors
  1. Sangam Shrestha
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sangam Shrestha .

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Shrestha, S. (2014). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Requirement and Rice Yield for Ngamoeyeik Irrigation Project in Myanmar. In: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors. Springer Water. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09746-6_5

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation