Skip to main content
Book cover

Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa pp 165–183Cite as

Climate Change and Crop Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Recent scientific evidence shows that crop yields in many Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) countries are likely to be severely affected by climate change. Reliance on rainfall in this region increases the vulnerability of cereal systems to climate change and variability. In large parts of SSA, maize (Zea mays L.) is the principal staple crop, covering a total of nearly 27 M ha, and yet maize yields remain the lowest in the world, stagnated at less than 2 Mg ha−1. Calculated and simulated analyses for SSA show that crop yields will decline by more than 10 % by 2055. The effect of climate change on crop yields is mainly attributed to: increased frequency of extreme events; effects of elevated CO2 (where studies project crop yield increases of 5–20 % at 550 ppm CO2); interactions of elevated CO2 with temperature and rainfall as well as with soil nutrients; and increased vulnerability to weed competition, insect pests, and diseases. However, several studies show that rainfall and water availability limit agricultural production more than temperature in SSA. The projected rainfall would increase by 2–4 % in Eastern Africa, but decrease by 5 % in Southern Africa during the main crop growing seasons. Temperatures are likely to increase throughout SSA by 2050, but the combination of increasing temperatures and low seasonal rainfall in Southern Africa suggest this region will be particularly vulnerable. Some of the crop models used for predicting the effect of climate change on yields are limited by their ability to predict effects of climatic events that lie outside the range of present-day variability. In addition, comparisons between models for the same setting have sometimes given differing results. This review paper shows that, for most of the SSA countries, the data required for assessing long-term effect of climate change on crop yield are lacking, that most of the models do not cater to assessment at the household level, and that no single approach can be considered as adequate. Therefore, a clear need exists for collaboration among different scientific disciplines for the development of agriculture in SSA in a changing climate.

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Crop yields
  • Sub-Saharan Africa

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-09360-4_8
  • Chapter length: 19 pages
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
eBook
USD   89.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • ISBN: 978-3-319-09360-4
  • Instant PDF download
  • Readable on all devices
  • Own it forever
  • Exclusive offer for individuals only
  • Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout
Softcover Book
USD   119.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Hardcover Book
USD   169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol 165:351–372

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Andersson DA, Håkansson T, Hårsmar M et al (2012) Critical research issues for future sub-Saharan African agriculture. SLU, Framtidens lantbruk/Future Agriculture, Uppsala

    Google Scholar 

  • Bancy MM (2000) The influence of climate change on maize production in semi-humid and semi-arid areas of Kenya. J Arid Environ 46:333–334

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Butler IW, Riha SJ (1989) GAPS: a general purpose formulation model of the soil –plant – atmosphere system Version 1.1 user’s manual. Department of Agronomy Cornell University, Ithaca

    Google Scholar 

  • Cairns JE, Hellin J, Sonder K et al (2013) Adapting maize production to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. Food Sec. doi:10.1007/s12571-013-0256-x

    Google Scholar 

  • Campbell B, Mann W, Meléndez-Ortiz R et al (2011) Agriculture and climate change. A scoping report. http://www.climate-agriculture.org.Accessed 12 May 2014

  • Case M (2006) Climate change impacts on East Africa. A review of the scientific literature, World Wide Fund for Nature. Grand, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen CC, McCarl BA, Schimmelpfennig DE (2004) Yield variability as influenced by climate: a statistical investigation. Clim Change 66:239–261

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Easterling WE, Aggarwal PK, Batima P et al (2007) Food, fibre and forest products. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 273–313

    Google Scholar 

  • Eilitta M, Eteka A, Carsky RJ (2004) Integrating mucuna in the maize – based systems of Southern Benin. In: Eilitta M, Mureithi J, Derpsch R (eds) Green manure/cover crops systems of smallholder farmers. Experiences from tropical and subtropical regions. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 237–262

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2003) Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the twenty-first century (CD-ROM). FAO land and water digital media series number 21. CD-ROM

    Google Scholar 

  • FAO (2010) FAO statistical database. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H (2002) Climate change and agricultural vulnerability, Special report to the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development. Johannesburg

    Google Scholar 

  • Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello FN et al (2005) Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360(1463):2067–2083

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (2013) Crop growth models. Land and Water Division, Rome, www.fao.org

    Google Scholar 

  • Government of Kenya (2002) Kenya’s initial national communication to the UNFCCC. Government of Kenya. 155 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Iglesias A (2006) Climate change and agriculture. Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain. CGE hands-on training workshop on V&A Assessment of the Asia and the Pacific Region. Jakarta. Accessed 20–24 Mar 2006

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate change: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, contribution of WG II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Irénikatché PB, Akponikpè PJ, Euloge KA (2010) Farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation strategies in Sub- Saharan West-Africa. ICID+ 18 2nd International Conference: climate, sustainability and development in semi-arid regions, Fortaleza-Ceará, Brazil. Accessed 16–20 Aug 2010

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones JW, Ritchie JR (1990) Crop growth models. Management of farm irrigation systems. In: Hoffman GJ et al (eds). American Society of Agricultural Engineers Monograph, St. Joseph

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones JW, Boote KJ, Hoogenboom G et al (1989) SOYGRO V 5.42: soybean crop growth simulation model: user’s guide. Department of Agricultural Engineering and Department of Agronomy, University of Florida, Gainesville

    Google Scholar 

  • Karuma A, Gachene CKK, Gicheru PT (2011) Effects of legume cover crops and subsoiling on soil properties and maize growth in Machakos District, Kenya. J Trop Subtrop Agroecosyst 14:237–243

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bind M (2002) Response of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Adv Agron 77:293–368

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C et al (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation and needs for food security in 2030. Science 319:607–610

    CrossRef  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Malesu MA, Oduor K, Cherogony D et al (2010) Investing in rainwater harvesting to boost food security in East Africa. Icraf HQs, Nairobi

    Google Scholar 

  • Miriti JM, Kironchi G, Esilaba AO et al (2012) Yield and water use efficiencies of maize and cowpea as affected by tillage and cropping systems in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. Agr Water Manage 115:148–155

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Mohamed AB, Van Duivenbooden V, Abdoussallam S (2002) Impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Sahel-Part 1: methodological approach and case study for groundnut and cowpea in Niger. Clim Change 54((3):327–348

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Ndayisaba PC, Kayumba J, Nabahungu LN (2013) Mineral fertilizers for improved productivity of climbing bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in the South-eastern Rwanda. Paper presented during the ASSS and SSSEA, 20–25 Oct 2013, Nakuru

    Google Scholar 

  • Nelson GC, Rosegrant M, Koo J et al (2009) Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. IFPRI, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Njaimwe AN, Mnkeni PNS, Muchaonyerwa P et al (2013) Tillage and crop rotation effects on structural properties of two sandy clay loam soils in Zanyokwe Irrigation Scheme, South Africa. Proceedings of the ASSS and SSSEA, Nakuru, Kenya. Accessed 20–25 Oct 2013

    Google Scholar 

  • Nowak RS, Ellsworth DS, Smith SD (2004) Functional responses of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 – Do photosynthetic and productivity data from FACE experiments support early predictions? New Phytol 162:253–280

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Oseni TO, Masarirambi MT (2011) Effect of climate change on maize (Zea mays) production and food security in Swaziland. J Agric Environ Sci 11(3):385–391

    Google Scholar 

  • Oyiga B, Mekbib H, Christine W (2011) Implications of climate change on crop yield and food accessibility in SSA. Interdisciplinary term paper, University of Bonn, 31 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Parry LM, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A (2000) Handbook of climate change: agriculture. UNEP/IVM Handbook, 47 pp

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez J, Jarvis A, Laderach P (2013) Empirical approaches for assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production: the EcoCrop model and a case study with sorghum (Sorghum bicolor M.). Agric Forest Meteorol 170:67–78

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Ray D, Ramankutty K, Mueller N et al (2012) Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation. Nat Commun 3:1293

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Republic of Kenya (2004) National policy on disaster management (Revised Draft). Nairobi, p 4

    Google Scholar 

  • Ringler C, Zhu T, Cai X et al (2010) Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios. IFPRI discussion paper no. 1042. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Ringler C, Zhu T, Cai X (2011) Sub-Saharan Africa: insights from comprehensive climate change modeling. The impact of climate change on food outcomes. IFPRI Res Brief 15–20:1–2

    Google Scholar 

  • Ritchie JT, Singh U, Godwin D et al (1989) A user’s guide to CERES – Maize V. 2.10. International Fertilizer Development Center, Muscle Shoals

    Google Scholar 

  • Rockström J, Barron JJ, Fox P (2001) Water productivity in rainfed agriculture: challenges and opportunities for smallholder farmers in drought- prone tropical agro-systems. IWMI Workshop, Colombo. Accessed 12–14 Nov 2001

    Google Scholar 

  • Sanchez PA (2002) Soil fertility and hunger in Africa. Science 295:2019–2020

    CrossRef  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schneider MK, Lüscher A, Richter M et al (2004) Ten years of free-air CO2 enrichment altered the mobilization of N from soil in Lolium perenne L. swards. Glob Chang Biol 10:1377–1388

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Shiferaw B, Prasanna B, Hellin J et al (2011) Crops that feed the world. Past successes and future challenges to the role played by maize in global food security. Food Secur 3:307–327

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Sileshi G, Akinnifesi FK, Debusho LK et al (2010) Variation in maize yield gaps with plant nutrient inputs, soil type and climate across sub-Saharan Africa. Field Crop Res 116:1–13

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Teyssonneyre F, Picon-Cochard C, Falcimagne R et al (2002) Effects of elevated CO2 and cutting frequency on plant community structure in a temperate grassland. Glob Chang Biol 8:1034–1046

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson HE, Berrang-Ford L, Ford JD (2010) Climate change and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review. Sustainability 2:2719–2733

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PK, Jones PG, Alagarswamy G et al (2009) Spatial variation of crop yield response to climate change in East Africa. Glob Environ Chang 19:54–65

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Tubiello FN, Jagtap S, Rosenzweig C et al (2002) Clim Res 20:259–270

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Tubiello FN, Soussana JF, Howden SM (2007) Crop and pasture response to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:19686–19690

    CrossRef  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • UN Hunger Task Force (2003) Halving global hunger. Background paper of the task force 2 on hunger. UNDP, 89pp

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). www.unfccc.int. Agriculture

  • van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, International Institute for applied systems analysis, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • van Duivenbooden N, Abdoussallam S, Mohamed AB (2002) Impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Sahel-Part 2: methodological approach and case study for millet in Niger. Clim Chang 54(3):349–368

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Williams JR, Jones CA, Kiniry JR et al (1989) The EPIC growth model. Trans Am Soc Agric Eng 32(2):479–511

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

  • Xiao G, Zhang O, Yao Y et al (2007) Effects of temperature increase on water use and crop yields in a pea–spring wheat–potato rotation. Agr Water Manage 91:86–91

    CrossRef  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Land Resource Management and Agricultural Technology, University of Nairobi, 29053, 00625, Nairobi, Kenya

    Charles K. K. Gachene & Anne N. Karuma

  2. Kenyatta University, 43844, 00100, Nairobi, Kenya

    Mary W. Baaru

Authors
  1. Charles K. K. Gachene
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Anne N. Karuma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mary W. Baaru
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Charles K. K. Gachene .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, Ohio State University OARDC, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    Rattan Lal

  2. Department of Environmental Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway

    Bal Ram Singh

  3. Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania

    Dismas L. Mwaseba

  4. AEDE/CFAES, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    David Kraybill

  5. IPA/CFAES, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA

    David O. Hansen

  6. Department of International Environment and Development Studies/Noragric, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway

    Lars Olav Eik

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Gachene, C.K.K., Karuma, A.N., Baaru, M.W. (2015). Climate Change and Crop Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa. In: Lal, R., Singh, B., Mwaseba, D., Kraybill, D., Hansen, D., Eik, L. (eds) Sustainable Intensification to Advance Food Security and Enhance Climate Resilience in Africa. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09360-4_8

Download citation