Mission Impact Assessment for Cyber Warfare

Abstract

Cyber networks are used extensively by not only a nation’s military to protect sensitive information and execute missions, but also the primary infrastructure that provides services that enable modern conveniences such as education, potable water, electricity, natural gas, and financial transactions. Disruption of any of these services could have widespread impacts not only to citizens’ well-being. As such, these critical services may be targeted by malicious hackers during cyber warfare. Due to the increasing dependence on computers for military and infrastructure purposes, it is imperative to not only protect them and mitigate any immediate or potential threats, but to also understand the current or potential impacts beyond the cyber networks or the organization. This increased dependence means that a cyber attack may not only affect the cyber network, but also other tasks or missions that are dependent upon the network for execution and completion. It is therefore necessary to try to understand the current and potential impacts of cyber effects on the overall mission of a nation’s military, infrastructure, and other critical services. The understanding of the impact is primarily controlled by two processes: state estimation and impact assessment. State estimation is the process of determining the current state of the assets while impact assessment is the process of calculating impact based on the current asset states.

Cleared for public release on 23 Apr 14, #88ABW-2014-1911