Interpreting Color Revolutions

Abstract

This section summarizes and interprets the findings and identifies open research questions. Success and failure are primarily determined via complex interactions between structure and agency in both the domestic and international spheres. A unified and competitive opposition comprising a coalition of parliamentary and non-parliamentary actors led by a popular figure and the ability to conduct nationwide campaigning are crucial for change. In this situation, the strength and popularity of the incumbent leadership and the regime’s reaction to popular dissent are important for stability. The regime’s response includes measures towards strengthening popularity, prevention, and coercion. Models of diffusion can be employed to explain how the idea of Color Revolutions has been adapted by the opposition in many Eurasian countries, and how autocratic regimes have prepared for this challenge to stability (Counter-Color Revolutions). Research has not yet studied the outcomes of successful Color Revolutions in-depth. However, the overall outcomes seem not to stand for profound change, but rather for the continuation of cycles of patronal presidentialism.