Abstract
Industrial energy consumption depends on social and economic variables, and the way in which variables are selected is an important issue in causal forecasting. In this paper, we have developed a method to select the input variables for the monthly forecasting of energy consumption by artificial neural networks. The method consists of applying principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of data. The forecasts obtained by applying the principal component analysis were combined by a neural network and compared to the ones obtained by selecting variables using a correlation analysis. An important contribution of this work is the evidence that principal component analysis reduces the number of variables in the input set and, consequently, the error rate of neural networks in energy forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Theil’s U statistic were used to provide evidence of the predictive capability of the proposed method. The neural network with variables selected via the first principal component analysis obtained out of sample errors of that were approximately 15.4% lower than the neural nets with input variables selected by correlation analysis. In addition, the performance of the neural net, the input of which was selected in the second principal component, has demonstrated a MAPE that was 10.65% lower than the neural net fed with variables selected using a correlation analysis. Completing the analysis, the combination of forecasts exhibited errors that were approximately 0.93% lower than the error obtained by selecting variables using a correlation analysis. The neural net that was fed with variables selected in the third principal component did not reach errors lower than the naive method. However, the nets results were relevant to the combination of forecasts.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Adya, M., Collopy, F.: How effective are neural networks at forecasting and prediction? A review and evaluation. Journal of Forecasting (17), 481–495 (1998)
Armstrong, J.: Combining forecasts. In: Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, pp. 417–439. Kluwer Academic Publishing (2001)
Balkin, S.D., Ord, J.K.: Automatic neural network modeling for univariate time series. International Journal of Forecasting 16(4), 509–515 (2000)
da Silva, A.P.A., Ferreira, V.H., Velasquez, R.M.: Input space to neural network based load forecasters. International Journal of Forecasting 24(4), 616–629 (2008)
de Oliveira, C.M., Wazlawick, R.S.: Electrical reallocation of transformers in distribution systems using genetic algorithms. International Journal of Engineering Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and Communications 12(1), 21–28 (2004)
del Moral, M.J., Valderrama, M.J.: A principal component approach to dynamic regression models. Journal of Forecasting (13), 237–244 (1997)
Duan, L., Niu, D., Gu, Z.: Long and medium term power load forecasting with multi-level recursive regression analysis. In: International Symposium on Intelligent Information Technology Application, vol. 1, pp. 514–518 (December 2008)
Elias, C.N., Hatziargyriou, N.D.: An annual midterm energy forecasting model using fuzzy logic. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 24(1), 469–478 (2009)
Farahat, M.A.: Long term industrial load forecasting and planning using Neural Networks technique and fuzzy inference method. In: 39th International Conference on Power Engineering, vol. 1, p. 4 (September 2004)
Kahoa, T.Q.D., Phuong, L.M., Binh, P.T.T., Lien, N.T.H.: Application of wavelet and neural network to long-term load forecasting. In: International Conference on Power System Technology, vol. 1, pp. 840–844 (November 2004)
Liu, H., Cai, L., Wu, X.: Grey-RBF neural network prediction model for city electricity demand forecasting. In: International Conference on Wireless Comunications, Network and Mobile Computing, pp. 1–5 (October 2008)
Mardia, K.V., Kent, J.T., Bibby, J.M.: Multivariate analysis. Academic, London (1979)
Mohamed, Z., Bodger, P.: Forecasting electricity consumption in the New Zealand using economic and demographic variables. Energy 30(10), 1833–1843 (2005)
Muñoz, A., Czernichow, T.: Variable selection using feedforward and recurrent neural networks. Engineering Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and Communications 6(2), 91–102 (1998)
Pao, H.: Comparing linear and non-linear forecast for Taiwan’ electricity consumption. Energy 31(12), 2129–2141 (2006)
Rubio, G., Pomares, H., Rojas, I., Herrera, L.J.: A heuristic method for parameter selection in LS-SVM: Application to time series prediction. International Journal of Forecasting 27(3), 725–739 (2011)
Souza, G.P., Samohyl, R.W., Pereira, R.C.: Assessing preliminar applicability of Principal Component Analysis to a big dataset to build linear regression models. In: Brazilisan Simposium of Probability ans Statistics-SINAPE, Caxambu-MG, Brasil (2006)
Terasvirta, T., Medeiros, M.C., Rech, G.: Building neural network models for time series: a statistical approach. Journal of Forecasting (25(1)), 49–75 (2006)
Tsekouras, G.J., Dyalinas, G.J., Hatziargyriou, N.D., Kavatza, S.: A non-linear multivariable regression model for midterm energy forecasting of power system. Electric Power System Research 77(12), 1560–1568 (2007)
Tsekouras, G.J., Elias, C.N., Kavatza, S., Contaxis, G.C.: A hybrid non-linear regression midterm energy forecasting method using data mining. In: Power Tech Conference Proceedings, vol. 1, p. 6 (June 2003)
Zhang, G., Patuwo, B.E., Hu, M.Y.: Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art. International Journal of Forecasting 14(1), 35–62 (1998)
Zhao, H., Liu, R., Zhao, Z., Fan, C.: Analysis of Energy Consumption Prediction Model Based on Genetic Algorithm and Wavelet Neural Network. In: 3rd International Workshop on Intelligent Systems and Applications (ISA), pp. 1–4 (May 2011)
Wichard, J.D.: Forecasting the NN5 time series with hybrid models. International Journal of Forecasting 27(3), 700–707 (2011)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this paper
Cite this paper
Sacramento, I.S., Souza, G.P., Wazlawick, R.S. (2014). Principal Component Analysis to Reduce Forecasting Error of Industrial Energy Consumption in Models Based on Neural Networks. In: Rutkowski, L., Korytkowski, M., Scherer, R., Tadeusiewicz, R., Zadeh, L.A., Zurada, J.M. (eds) Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing. ICAISC 2014. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 8467. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07173-2_14
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07173-2_14
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-07172-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-07173-2
eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)