Abstract
Dengue is an infectious disease that is transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Each stage of the life cycle is influenced by climate variation. The transmission of the dengue virus can be related to increased mosquito survival due to rain and temperature conditions that are optimal for the mosquito’s maturation. The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to study how temperature influences each stage of the mosquito’s life cycle dynamics by representing transitions and death rates as an explicit function of temperature. The model is thus able to show the influence of temperature on dengue transmission. It can also be used as an operational tool due to its simplicity regarding data requirements and computational effort. The model demonstrates that an expected increase in global temperature will influence the mosquito’s life cycle and, consequently, increase the incidence of dengue cases in areas that were previously free from the disease.
Keywords
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a grant from LIM01-HCFMUSP, CNPq and FAPESP. M. R. thanks the CNPq and L. O. thanks FAPESP for fellowship awards.
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Rossi, M.M., Ólivêr, L., Massad, E. (2014). Modelling the Implications of Temperature on the Life Cycle of Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes. In: Ferreira, C., Godoy, W. (eds) Ecological Modelling Applied to Entomology. Entomology in Focus, vol 1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06877-0_4
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