Abstract
This chapter explores the trade-off between competing objectives of employment creation and climate policy commitments in Irish agriculture. A social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model is linked with a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model to simulate the impact of a number of GHG emission reduction scenarios, assuming these are achieved through a constraint on beef production. Limiting the size of the beef sector helps to reduce GHG emissions with a very limited impact on the value of agricultural income at the farm level. However, the SAM multiplier analysis shows that there would be significant employment losses in the wider economy. From a policy perspective, a pragmatic approach to GHG emissions reductions in the agriculture sector, which balances opportunities for economic growth in the sector with opportunities to reduce associated GHG emissions, may be required.
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Notes
- 1.
The AgriFood-SAM used in this model is based on 2005 data when sugar production was still represented in the agricultural sector in Ireland. This does not significantly influence the results as sugar has little input into any of the four sectors in the model.
- 2.
The method used to estimate the final demand shocks is detailed in Miller et al. (2011).
- 3.
The complete table with all 57 employment elasticities and marginal employment elasticities can be found in Miller et al. (2013).
- 4.
The model uses an annual unbalanced panel dataset for the period 1995–2008 measured in constant 2006 prices. Estimates of the marginal employment coefficients would benefit from an updated and/or balanced panel not available at the moment of this exercise.
- 5.
For those sectors where marginal employment coefficients could not be calculated, the employment changes associated with output changes are assumed to be zero.
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Miller, A.C., Donnellan, T., Matthews, A., Hanrahan, K., O’Donoghue, C. (2014). Expanding Agri-Food Production and Employment in the Presence of Climate Policy Constraints: Quantifying the Trade-Off in Ireland. In: Zopounidis, C., Kalogeras, N., Mattas, K., van Dijk, G., Baourakis, G. (eds) Agricultural Cooperative Management and Policy. Cooperative Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06635-6_12
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