Quantitative Scenario-Based Assessment of Contextual Factors for ICT4D Projects: Design and Implementation in a Web Based Tool
The success of a development intervention is primarily defined by its longer-term results. Information and Communication Technology for Development (ICT4D) projects are no exception. In particular, the external context in which such projects are to be deployed plays a crucial role for achieving better development results. Thus, an analysis of contextual factors is essential for decision-makers at the project proposal screening and evaluation. Guided by the results-based management framework, a tool for influence assessment of contextual factors is designed and presented in this paper. The tool comprises a suggested model for common ICT4D contextual factors and a complementing method for their assessment. The method employs a scenario-based judgments elicitation process for data extraction together with Monte-Carlo simulation for data processing and aggregation. While the tool is not intended for comprehensive and deep analysis, the underlying streamlined process along with the easy to interpret assessment results arguably ensure further wide adoption.
KeywordsProject evaluation risk analysis opportunity analysis decision support system sensitivity analysis contextual factors ICT4D
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