Advertisement

Modelling Past and Future Changes in Secondary Inorganic Aerosol Concentrations in the UK

  • Riinu OtsEmail author
  • Anthony Dore
  • Y. Sim Tang
  • Christine F. Braban
  • Massimo Vieno
  • Mark Sutton
Conference paper
Part of the Springer Proceedings in Complexity book series (SPCOM)

Abstract

The FRAME (Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange) model is a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model with a horizontal grid resolution of 5 × 5 km2. This work uses FRAME to calculate annual average concentrations of three secondary inorganic aerosol species (NH4 +, NO3 , SO4 2−) and gas phase SO2 over the United Kingdom for the years 2000–2010. Modelled concentrations are compared to measurements from 12 monitoring sites which are operated with the UK Eutrophying and Acidifying Air Pollutants (UKEAP) Acid Gases and Aerosols Network (AGANet). The results showed good spatial correlation between measurements of gas and aerosol concentrations and modelled values (R2 > 0.8). However FRAME underestimated decreases in sulphate and ammonium aerosol concentrations over the 11-year period and overestimated changes in SO2 concentrations relative to measurements. Ongoing work to investigate temporal changes in atmospheric oxidation rates should clarify this difference. FRAME showed a more modest reduction in nitrate concentrations (compared to ammonium and sulphate), which is in agreement with measurements.

FRAME was used to estimate air concentrations for two future scenarios based on emissions predictions for the years 2020 and 2030 in which significant reductions in UK emissions in the UK are forecast (40 % for SO2 and 47 % for NOx between 2010 and 2030). The relationships between long term changes in precursor gas emissions and the formation of secondary inorganic aerosol are discussed in terms of the modelling results.

Keywords

Aerosol Concentration Plume Rise Horizontal Grid Resolution Straight Line Trajectory Point Source Emission 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council and the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The authors are also thankful for the R-project (www.R-project.org) and its packages Lattice and Openair (www.openair-project.org).

References

  1. 1.
    Matejko M, Dore AJ, Hall J, Dore CJ, Blas M, Kryza M, Smith R, Fowler D (2009) The influence of long term trends in pollutant emissions on deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and exceedance of critical loads in the United Kingdom. Environ Sci Policy 12:882–896CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Dore AJ, Vieno M, Tang YS, Dragosits U, Dosio A, Weston KJ, Sutton MA (2007) Modelling the atmospheric transport and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen over the United Kingdom and assessment of the influence of SO2 emissions from international shipping. Atmos Environ 41(11):2355–2367CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Riinu Ots
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Anthony Dore
    • 1
  • Y. Sim Tang
    • 1
  • Christine F. Braban
    • 1
  • Massimo Vieno
    • 1
    • 3
  • Mark Sutton
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre for Ecology and HydrologyMidlothianUK
  2. 2.School of ChemistryUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
  3. 3.School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK

Personalised recommendations