Abstract
Globally, air temperature rose by 0.74 °C between 1906 and 2005 and is projected to rise up to 6.4 °C by 2099, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007). Climate warming can affect the distribution and the intensity of parasitic diseases that are carried by insects and animals (vector-borne diseases).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Anderson RM, May RM (1991) Infectious diseases of humans: dynamics and control. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Brookmeyer R, Stroup D (2004) Monitoring the health of populations: statistical principles and methods for public health surveillance. Oxford University Press, New York
Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Wood S (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391:783–786
Dietz K (1993) The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. Stat Methods Med Res 2:23–41
Doudier B, Bogreau H, DeVries A, Ponçon N, Stauffer WM, Fontenille D, Rogier C, Parola P (2007) Possible autochtonous malaria from Marseille to Minneapolis. Emerg Infect Dis 13(8):1236–1238
Ebert B, Fleischer B (2008) Malaria: Stellungnahmen des Arbeitskreises Blut des Bundesministeriums für Gesundheit. Bundesgesundheitsblatt—Gesundheitsforschung—Gesundheitsschutz 51:236–249
Gill CA (1921) The role of meteorology on malaria. Indian J Med Res 8:633–693
Gill CA (1923) The prediction of malaria epidemics. Indian J Med Res 10:1136–1143
Gimnig JE, Hightower AW, Hawley WA (2005) Application of geographic information systems to the study of the ecology of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases. In: Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) Environmental change and malaria risk: global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht
Gratz NG, Steffen R, Cocksedge W (2000) Why aircraft disinsection? Bull World Health Organ 78(8):995–1004
Gubler DJ, Reiter P, Ebi KL, Yap W, Nasci R, Patz JA (2001) Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases. Environ Health Persp 109(2):223–233
Hay SI, Cox J, Rogers DJ, Randolph SE, Stern DI, Shanks GD, Myers MF, Snow RW (2002) Climate change: regional warming and malaria resurgence-reply. Nature 420:628
Hornsmann I, Pesch R, Schmidt G, Schröder W (2008) Calculation of an ecological land classification of Europe (ELCE) and its application for optimising environmental monitoring networks. In: Car A, Griesebner G, Strobl J (eds) Geospatial crossroads @ GI_Forum ‘08: proceedings of the geoinformatics forum Salzburg. Wichmann, Heidelberg, 140–151
Hoshen MB, Morse AP (2004) A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J 3:32
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) (2001) Climate change: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) (2007) Climate change 2007. Synthesis report, Geneva
Kitron U, Pener H, Costin C, Orshan L, Greenberg Z, Shalom U (1994) Geographic information system in malaria surveillance: mosquito breeding and imported cases in Israel, 1992. Am J Trop Med Hyg 50:550–556
Koslowsky S (2002) Bluetounge disease in Deutschland? Risikoabschätzung mit Hilfe eines Geographischen Informationssystems (GIS). Dissertation, Freie Universität Berlin
Korduan P, Zehner ML (2008) Geoinformation im Internet. Technologien zur Nutzung raumbezogener Informationen im WWW. Wichmann, Heidelberg
Krüger A, Rech A, Su XZ, Tannich E (2001) Two cases of autochthonous Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Germany with evidence for local transmission by indigenous Anopheles plumbeus. Trop Med Int Health 6:983–985
Leemans R (2005) Global environmental change and health. Integrating knowledge form natural, socioeconomic and medical sciences. In: Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) Environmental change and malaria risk. Global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht
Lindsay SW, Thomas CJ (2001) Global warming and risk of vivax malaria in Great Britain. Glob Change Hum Health 2(1):80–84
Lindsay SW, Parson L, Thomas CJ (1998) Mapping the ranges and relative abundance of the two principal African malaria vectors, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis, using climate data. Proc Roy Soc Lond B, Biol Sci 265:847–854
MacDonald G (1956) Epidemiological basis of malaria control. Bull World Health Org 15(3–5):613–626
Maier WA, Grunewald J, Habedank B, Hartelt K, Kampen H, Kimmig P, Naucke T, Oehme R, Vollmer A, Schöler A, Schmitt C (2003) Mögliche Auswirkungen von Klimaveränderung auf die Ausbreitung von primär humanmedizinisch relevanten Krankheitserregern über tierische Vektoren sowie auf die wichtigen Humanparasiten in Deutschland. Climate Change 05/03. Umweltbundesamt, Berlin
Malecki JM, Kumar S, Johnson BF, Gidley ML, O’Connor TE, Petenbrink J, Bush L, Morand J, Perez MT, Pillai S, Crockett L, Blackmore C, Bradford E, Wirtz RA, Barnwell JW, DaSilva AJ, Causer LM, Parise ME (2003) Local transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria—Palm Beach county, Florida. MMWR 52(38):908–911
Martens P, Thomas C (2005) Climate change and malaria risk: complexity and scaling. In: Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) Environmental change and malaria risk. Global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht
Martens P, Kovats RS, Nijhof S, de Vries P, Livermore MTJ, Bradley DJ, Cox J, McMichael AJ (1999) Climate change and future population at risk of malaria. Glob Environ Change 9:89–107
Martin PH, Lefebvre MG (1995) Malaria and climate: sensitivity of malaria potential transmission to climate. Ambio 24:200–207
Millet JP, Gercia de Olalla P, Carillo-Santisteve P, Gascón J, Treviňo B, Muňoz J, Gomez i Prat J, Cabezos J, Gonzáles Cordón A, Caylà JA (2008) Imported malaria in a cosmopolitan European city: a mirror image of the world epidemiological situation. Malar J 7:56
Mühlberger N, Jelinek T, Gascon J, Probst M, Zoller T, Schunk M, Beran J, Gjørup I, Behrens RH, Clerinx J, Björkman A, McWhinney P, Matteelli A, Lopez-Velez R, Bisoffi Z, Hellgren U, Puente S, Schmid ML, Myrvang B, Holthoff-Stich ML, Laferl H, Hatz C, Kollaritsch H, Kapaun A, Knobloch J, Iversen J, Kotlowski A, Malvy DJM, Kern P, Fry G, Siikamaki H, Schulze MH, Soula G, Paul M, Gómez i Prat J, Lehmann V, Bouchaud O, da Cunha S, Atouguia J, Boecken G (2004) Epidemiology and clinical features of vivax malaria imported to Europe: sentinel surveillance data from TropNetEurop. Malar J 3:5
Müller M, Augstein B (2005) Das Hamburger Umweltinformationssystem HUIS—Integration von Umweltdaten auf Basis eines GDI-Ansatzes. In: Fischer-Stabel P (ed) Umweltinformationssysteme. Wichmann, Heidelberg
Omumbo JA, Hay SI, Guerra CA, Snow RW (2004) The relationship between the Plasmodium falciparum parasite ratio in childhood and climate estimates of malaria transmission in Kenya. Malar J 3:17
Pastor A, Pastor A, Neely J, Goodfriend D, Marr J, Jenkins S, Woolard D, Pettit D, Gaines D, Sockwell D, Garvey C, Jordan C, Lacey C, DuVernoy T, Roberts D, Robert L, Santos P, Wirtz R, MacArthur J, O’Brien M, Causer L (2002) Local transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria—Virginia. MMWR 51(41):921–923
Patz JA, Hulme M, Rosenzweig C, Mitchell TD, Goldberg RA, Githeko AK, Lele S, McMichael AJ, Le Sueur D (2002) Climate change: regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature 420:627–628
Peng ZR, Tsou MH (2003) Internet GIS: distributed geographic information services for the internet and wireless networks. Wiley, Hoboken
Pesch R, Schmidt G, Schröder W, Weustermann I (2011) Application of Cart in ecological landscape mapping: two case studies. Ecol Ind 11:115–122
Ponçon N, Tran A, Toty C, Luty AJF, Fontenille D (2008) A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France. Malar J 7:147
Reiter P (2000) Malaria and global warming in perspective? Emerg Infect Dis 6:438–439
RKI (Robert-Koch-Institut) (1999) Zur Airport-Malaria und Baggage-Malaria. Epidemiologisches Bull 37(99):274
Rogers DJ, Randolph SE (2000) The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science 289:1763–1766
Schmidt G, Holy M, Schröder W (2008) Vector-associated diseases in the contect of climate change: Analysis and evaluation of the differences in the potential spread of tertian malaria in the ecoregions of Lower Saxony. Ital J Public Health 5(4):245–252
Schröder W, Schmidt G (2001) Defining ecoregions as framework for the assessment of 350 ecological monitoring networks in Germany by means of GIS and classification and 351 regression trees (CART). Gate to EHS 1(3):1–9
Schröder W, Schmidt G (2008) Mapping the potential temperature-dependent tertian malaria transmission within the ecoregions of Lower Saxony (Germany). Int J Med Microbiol 298(S1):38–49
Small J, Goetz SJ, Hay SI (2003) Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa 1911–1995. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 100(26):15341–15345
Smith DL, McKenzie FE (2004) Statics and dynamics of malaria infection in Anopheles mosquitoes. Malar J 3:13
Snow RW, Ikoku A, Omumbo J, Ouma J (1999) The epidemiology, politics and control of malaria epidemics in Kenya: 1900–1998. Roll back malaria, resource network on epidemics. World Health Organisation, Nairobi
Spath D, Günther J (2005) Open Source Software—Strukturwandel oder Strohfeuer?—Eine empirische Studie zu Trends und Entwicklungen zum Einsatz von Open Source Software in der öffentlichen Verwaltung und IT-Unternehmen in Deutschland. Frauenhofer IAO. http://www.iao.fraunhofer.de/d/oss_studie.pdf. Accessed 17 June 2013
Takken W, Martens P, Bogers RJ (eds) (2005) Environmental change and malaria risk: global and local implications. Springer, Dordrecht
Teutsch SM, Churchill RE (1994) Principles and practice of public health surveillance. Oxford University Press, New York
Tran A, Ponçon N, Toty C, Linard C, Guis H, Ferré JB, Lo Seen D, Roger F, de la Rocque S, Fontenille D, Baldet T (2008) Using remote sensing to map larval and adult populations of Anopheles hyrcanus (Diptera: Culicidae) potential malaria vector in Southern France. Int J Health Geogr 7:9
Waller LA, Gotway CA (2004) Applied spatial statistics for public health data. Wiley, New York
Weyer F (1956) Bemerkungen zum Erlöschen der ostfriesischen Malaria und zur Anopheles-Lage in Deutschland. Z Tropenmed Parasitol 7:219–228
WHO (World Health Organistion) (2004) Using climate to predict infectious disease outbreaks: a review. World Health Organistion, Geneva
Wilke A, Kiel E, Schröder W, Kampen H (2006) Anophelinae (Diptera: Culicidae) in ausgewählten Marschgebieten Niedersachsens: Bestandserfassung, Habitatbindung und Interpolation. Mitt Dtsch Ges Allg Angew Entomol 15:357–362
Williams S (2002) Free as in freedom. Richard Stallman’s crusade for free software. O′Reilly, Sebastopol, Cambridge
Zoller T, Naucke TJ, May J, Hoffmeister B, Flick H, Williams CJ, Frank C, Bergmann F, Suttorp N, Mockenhaupt P (2009) Malaria transmission in non-endemic areas: case report, review of the literature and implications for public health management. Malar J 8:71
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 The Author(s)
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Schröder, W., Schmidt, G. (2014). Conclusions and Outlook. In: Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections. SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0_4
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-03822-3
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-03823-0
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)