Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in
Book cover

Climate Change in North America pp 251–267Cite as

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change in North America

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Regional Climate Studies ((REGCLIMATE))

Abstract

Previous chapters have examined and discussed observations of climate change over North America (Chaps. 1–3), together with climate model simulations of North American climate change (Chaps. 4–5) in response to human and natural influences. Taken together these simulations and observations provide evidence that North American climate has changed over recent decades, and that some of these changes are qualitatively consistent with those simulated in response to human influences. However, by itself, this does not allow us to answer the question of whether humans have significantly affected North American climate. And if human influence can be detected, which variables, spatial scales, and locations have been significantly affected by human influence? Such questions are addressed by detection and attribution studies

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Allen MR, Stott PA (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, Part I: Theory. Clim Dyn 21:477–491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen MR, Tett SFB (1999) Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim Dyn 15:419–434

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett T, Zwiers F, Hegerl G et al (2005) Detecting and attributing external influences on the climate system: a review of recent advances. J Clim 18(9):1291–1314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bell J, Duffy P, Covey C et al (2000) Comparison of temperature variability in observations and sixteen climate model simulations. Geophys Res Lett 27(2):261–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonfils C, Duffy PB, Santer BD et al (2008a) Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Clim Chang 87:S43–S55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bonfils C, Santer BD, Pierce DW et al (2008b) Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous Western United States. J Clim 21(23):6404–6424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown S et al (2007) Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950-99. J Clim 20(21):5441–5454

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christidis N, Stott PA, Zwiers FW et al (2010) Probabilisitc estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis. Clim Dyn 34:1139–1156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christidis N, Stott PA, Zwiers FW et al (2012) The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade. Clim Dyn 39(6):1259–1274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Das T, Hidalgo HG, Pierce DW et al (2009) Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States. J Hydrometeor 10:871–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillett NP, Arora VK, Matthews D et al (2013) Constraining the ratio of global warming to cumulative CO2 emissions using CMIP5 simulations. J Clim 26:6844–6858. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00476.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW et al (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys Res Lett 31(18):L18211. doi:10.1029/2004GL020876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Giorgi F, Francisco R (2000) Uncertainties in regional climate change prediction: a regional analysis of ensemble simulations with the HadCM2 coupled AOGCM. Clim Dyn 16:169–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Bracconot P et al (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 663–745

    Google Scholar 

  • Hidalgo HG, Das T, Dettinger MD et al (2009) Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States. J Clim 22:3838–3855

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huntingford C, Stott PA, Allen MR et al (2006) Incorporating model uncertainty into attribution of observed temperature change. Geophys Res Lett 33:L05710. doi:10.1029/2005GL024831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones GS, Stott PA, Christidis N (2008) Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of very warm Northern Hemisphere summers. J Geophys Res Atmos 113:D02109. doi:10.1029/2007JD008914

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Lister DH, Osborn TJ et al (2012) Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J Geophys Res Atmos 117:D05127. doi:10.1029/2011JD017139

    Google Scholar 

  • Karoly DJ, Braganza K, Stott PA et al (2003) Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science 302(5648):1200–1203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karoly DJ, Stott PA (2006) Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature. Atmos Sci Lett 7(4):81–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karoly DJ, Wu QG (2005) Detection of regional surface temperature trends. J Clim 18(21):4337–4343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutson TR, Delworth TL, Dixon KW et al (2006) Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J Clim 19(9):1624–1651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knutson TR, Zeng F, Wittenberg AT (2013) Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Twentieth Century simulations. J Clim 26:8709–8743. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00567.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Kinter J III, Dirmeyer PA et al (2013) Multidecadal climate variability and the “warming hole” in North America: results from CMIP5 twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate simulations. J Clim 26:3511–3527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kunkel KE, Liang XZ, Zhu J et al (2006) Can CGCMs simulate the twentieth-century “warming hole” in the central United States? J Clim 19(17):4137–4153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leibensperger EM, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ et al (2012a) Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: aerosol trends and radiative forcing. Atmos Chem Phys 12:3333–3348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leibensperger EM, Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ et al (2012b) Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 2: Climate response. Atmos Chem Phys 12:3349–3362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maurer EP, Stewart IT, Bonfils C et al (2007) Detection, attribution, and sensitivity of trends toward earlier streamflow in the Sierra Nevada. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:D11118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Branstator G (2012) Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. east-west differential of heat extremes. J Clim 25:6394–6408

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min SK, Hense A (2006) A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part I: global mean surface temperature. J Clim 19(13):3237–3256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Min SK, Hense A (2007) A Bayesian assessment of climate change using multimodel ensembles. Part II: regional and seasonal mean surface temperatures. J Clim 20(12):2769–2790

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell JFB, Karoly DJ, Hegerl GC et al (2001) Detection of climate change and attribution of causes. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ et al (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 695–738

    Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Hidalgo HG et al (2008) Attribution of declining western US snowpack to human effects. J Clim 21(23):6425–6444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD et al (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(21):8441–8446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shindell D, Faluvegi G (2009) Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nat Geosci 2(4):294–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stott PA (2003) Attribution of regional-scale temperature changes to anthropogenic and natural causes. Geophys Res Lett 30(14):1728. doi:10.1029/2003GL017324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stott PA, Gillett NP, Hegerl GC et al (2010) Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective. Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change 1(2):192–211

    Google Scholar 

  • Stott PA, Tett SFB (1998) Scale-dependent detection of climate change. J Clim 11(12):3282–3294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Q, Karoly DJ (2007) Implications of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the detection of regional surface air temperature trends. Geophys Res Lett 34:L08703. doi:10.1029/2006GL028502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Stott PA (2006) Multimodel multisignal climate change detection at regional scale. J Clim 19(17):4294–4307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers FW, Zhang XB (2003) Toward regional-scale climate change detection. J Clim 16(5):793–797

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Feng Y (2011) Anthropogenic influence on long return period daily temperature extremes at regional scales. J Clim 24:881–892

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada

    Nathan P. Gillett

Authors
  1. Nathan P. Gillett
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nathan P. Gillett .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. COLLEGE PARK, Maryland, USA

    George Ohring

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Gillett, N.P. (2014). Detection and Attribution of Climate Change in North America. In: Ohring, G. (eds) Climate Change in North America. Regional Climate Studies. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03768-4_6

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation