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Climate Change Projections in the Upper Gilgel Abay River Catchment, Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia

Abstract

According to future projections, precipitation and temperature will increase over Eastern Africa in the coming century. This chapter presents basin-level impact of climate change over the Upper Gilgel Abay River catchment, Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia, by downscaling the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) global climate model using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The baseline period (1961–1990) recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was considered for analysis of the baseline scenario. For future scenario analysis, the time periods of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s were applied. Mean annual rainfall will be expected to increase by 2.21, 2.23, and 1.89 % for A2 scenario and by 2.06, 1.85, and 0.36 % for B2 scenario by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The projected average temperature increases by 0.43, 1.05, and 1.92 °C for A2 scenario and by 0.47, 0.87, and 1.38 °C for B2 scenario in the three time periods. In the study area, the minimum temperature increases by 0.55, 1.06, and 1.83 °C for A2 scenario and 0.50, 0.87, and 1.29 °C for B2 scenario in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively.

Keywords

  • Blue Nile
  • Gilgel Abay
  • Climate change
  • Statistical downscaling
  • GCM
  • SDSM

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Notes

  1. 1.

    http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/sdsm/select.cgi

  2. 2.

    Balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end-use technologies.

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Correspondence to Anwar A. Adem .

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Adem, A. et al. (2014). Climate Change Projections in the Upper Gilgel Abay River Catchment, Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. In: Melesse, A., Abtew, W., Setegn, S. (eds) Nile River Basin. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-02720-3_19

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