Advertisement

Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior Following a Large-Scale Earthquake that Takes into Account Various Attributes of Residents and Transient Occupants

  • Toshihiro Osaragi
  • Takayuki Morisawa
  • Takuya Oki
Conference paper

Abstract

Understanding human behavior, such as waiting, returning home, and evacuation, after a great earthquake is very critical in establishing detailed disaster prevention planning. In the present paper, we construct a simulation model to describe how human behavior varies as a function of physical damage, such as the spread of urban fires and street blockage due to collapsed buildings. The proposed model is applied to a densely built-up area of Tokyo using a database of the spatiotemporal distribution of railroad passengers, automobile users, and pedestrians. Using the model, we attempt to demonstrate some new findings that can be applied to disaster prevention planning by examining evacuation plans and various settings in earthquake simulations.

Keywords

Evacuation Earthquake Spatiotemporal distribution Transient occupants 

Notes

Acknowledgements

This research was part of an effort supported by a Grant-in-Aid (21310105) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Health and Labor Sciences Research Grant, Scientific Research (B).

References

  1. 1.
    Osaragi, T., Hoshino, T.: Predicting Spatiotemporal Distribution of Transient Occupants in Urban Areas. In: J. Gensel et al. (eds.) 2012, Part 6. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, Bridging the Geographic Information Sciences, pp. 307–325. Springer, Heidelberg (2012)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Osaragi, T.: Estimating Spatio-temporal Distribution of Railroad Users and Its Application to Disaster Prevention Planning. In: M. Sester et al. (eds.) 2009, Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography, Advances in GIScience, pp. 233–250. Springer, Heidelberg (2009)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Osaragi, T., Shimada, R.: Spatio-temporal Distribution of Automobile Users for Disaster Prevention Planning (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Planning and Engineering. 641, 1561–1568 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Osaragi, T., Shimada, R.: Spatio-temporal Distribution of Population on Weekdays and Holidays for Estimating Human Damages from Devastating Earthquake (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Planning and Engineering. 635, 145–152 (2009)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Okada, K., Yoshida, K., Kashihara, S., Tsuji, M.: Presumption of Human Injury in Case of Earthquake’s Fire and Consideration on Its Countermeasure: Part 1 Structure of Computer Simulation Model and Its Assumptions (in Japanese). Journal of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Engineering. 275, 141–148 (1979)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Aoki, Y., Osaragi, T., Hashimoto, K.: A Simulation Model of Evacuation Behavior in the Fire-spread Urban Area Following Earthquake: Effects of Hearsay Information Process and Geographical Urban Image (in Japanese). Journal of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Engineering. 440, 111–118 (1992)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Ueda, R., Seo, K., Motoki, K.: A Simulation of Rescue Activity for Weak People in Disaster during Post-earthquake Fire Focusing on Local Disaster Mitigation: A Case Study at a Densely-populated Wooden District in Asagaya and Koenji, Suginami, Tokyo (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Planning and Engineering. 622, 137–144 (2007)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Muraki, Y., Kanoh, H.: The Effectiveness of Communication on Wide Area Simulation of Disaster Evacuation Using Multiagent Model (in Japanese). IPSJ SIG Technical Report. 130, 69–72 (2004)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Fujioka, M., Ishibashi, K., Kaji, H., Tsukagoshi, I.: Multi Agent Simulation Model for Evaluating Evacuation Management System against Tsunami Disaster (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Planning and Engineering. 562, 231–236 (2002)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Suzuki, T., Imamura, F.: Simulation Model of the Evacuation from a Tsunami in Consideration of the Resident Consciousness and Behavior (in Japanese). Journal of Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science. 23–4, 521–538 (2005)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Ohata, D., Takai, N., Kagami, H.: Spatial Evaluation of Tsunami Refuge Facilities in the Central Kushiro City: Simulation of Evacuation Behavior from Tsunami Utilizing Multi Agent System Part 2 (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Planning and Engineering. 612, 87–91 (2007)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Osaragi, T.: Modeling a Spatiotemporal Distribution of Stranded People Returning Home on Foot in the Aftermath of a Large-scale Earthquake. Nat Hazards, DOI  10.1007/s11069-012-0175-8 (2012)
  13. 13.
    Tokyo Fire Dept.: The Development and Practical Use Policy of Assessment Technique of Disaster Prevention for Earthquake Fires (in Japanese), Tokyo Metropolis (2001)Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Murao, O., Yamazaki, F.: Development of Fragility Curves for Buildings Based on Damage Survey Data of a Local Government after the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake (in Japanese). Journal of Architectural Structure and Construction. 527, 189–196 (2000)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Nishimura, K., Osaragi, T.: Spatio-temporal Distribution of Railroad Users in the Vicinity of Terminal Station (in Japanese). Proceedings of Geographical Information Systems Association. 18, 5–8 (2009)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Tokyo Regional Disaster Prevention Plan: Tokyo Regional Disaster Prevention Plan: Earthquake Disaster (in Japanese), Tokyo Metropolis (2003)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Tokyo Regional Disaster Prevention Plan: Summary on the Damage Assessment of Earthquake Directly under Tokyo (Interim report) (in Japanese), Tokyo Metropolis (2006)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Midorikawa, S., Fujimoto, K., Muramatsu, I.: Correlation of New J.M.A. Instrumental Seismic Intensity with Former J.M.A. Seismic Intensity and Ground Motion Parameters (in Japanese). Journal of Social Safety Science. 1, 51–56 (1999)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Toshihiro Osaragi
    • 1
  • Takayuki Morisawa
    • 1
  • Takuya Oki
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Mechanical and Environmental Informatics, Graduate School of Information Science and EngineeringTokyo Institute of TechnologyTokyoJapan

Personalised recommendations