Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring — Part 1: Regional Processing

Abstract

Continuous seismic threshold monitoring is a technique that has been developed over the past several years to assess the upper magnitude limit of possible seismic events that might have occurred in a geographical target area. The method provides continuous time monitoring at a given confidence level and can be applied in a site-specific, regional or global context.

In this paper (Part 1) and a companion paper (part 2) we address the problem of optimizing the site-specific approach in order to achieve the highest possible automatic monitoring capability of particularly monitoring network is available. We have in particular analyzed events from the region around the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site to develop a set of optimized processing parameters for the arrays SPITS, ARCES, FINES, and NORES. From analysis of the calibration events we have derived values for beam-forming steering delays, filter bands, short-term average (STA) lengths, phase travel times (P and S waves), and amplitude-magnitude relationships for each array. By using these parameters for threshold monitoring of the Novaya Zemlya testing area, we obtain a monitoring capability varying between m_b 2.0 and 2.5 during normal noise conditions.

The advantage of using a network, rather than a single station or array, for monitoring purposes becomes particularly evident during intervals with high global seismic activity (aftershock sequences), high seismic noise levels (wind, water waves, ice crakes) or station outages. For the time period November-December 1997, all time intervals with network magnitude thresholds exceeding m_b 2.5 were visually analyzed, and we found that all of these threshold peaks could be explained by teleseismic, regional, or local signals from events outside the Novaya Zemlya testing area. We could therefore conclude within the confidence level provided by the method, that no seismic event of magnitude exceeding 2.5 occurred at the Novaya Zemlya test site during this two-month time interval.

As and example of particular interest in a monitoring context, we apply optimized threshold processing of the SPITS array for a time interval around 16 August 1997 m_b 3.5 event in the Kara Sea. We show that this processing enables us to detect a second, smaller event from the same site (m_b 2.6), occurring about 4 hours later. This second event was not defined automatically by standard processing.