Abstract
Decision-makers can do a number of things to increase the accuracy of their perceptions and beliefs. If they become aware of common perceptual errors they may be able to avoid or compensate for them. And they can adopt safeguards to decrease their unwarranted confidence in prevailing beliefs, make themselves more sensitive to alternative explanations and images, and thus decrease the amount of discrepant information needed to make them re-examine their views. But while the amount and quality of self-conscious judgment employed in decision-making can be increased, there is no formula that will eliminate misperception or tell what image is correct. Faced with ambiguous and confusing evidence, decision-makers must draw inferences that will often prove to be incorrect. Indeed the interpretation of the other side that best fits with the available evidence may be wrong.
This paper is largely based on the concluding chapter in my forthcoming book, Perception and Misperception in International Politics, which will be published by Princeton University Press. Financial support was provided by the Harvard Center for International Affairs, the Social Science Research Council, and the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Jervis, R. (1977). Minimizing Misperception. In: Bonham, G.M., Shapiro, M.J. (eds) Thought and Action in Foreign Policy. Interdisciplinary Systems Research / Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung. Birkhäuser, Basel. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-5872-4_5
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