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Energy Flux Prediction Using an Ordinal Soft Labelling Strategy

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Bioinspired Systems for Translational Applications: From Robotics to Social Engineering (IWINAC 2024)


This paper addresses the problem of short-term energy flux prediction. For this purpose, we propose the use of an ordinal classification neural network model optimised using the triangular regularised categorical cross-entropy loss, termed MLP-T. This model is based on a soft labelling strategy, that replaces the crisp 0/1 labels on the loss computation with soft versions encoding the ordinal information. This soft label encoding leverages the inherent ordering between categories to reduce the cost of ordinal classification errors and improve model generalisation performance. Specifically, the soft labels for each target class are derived from triangular probability distributions. To assess the performance of MLP-T, six datasets built from buoy measurements and reanalysis data have been used. MLP-T has been compared to nominal and ordinal classification techniques in terms of four performance metrics. MLP-T achieved an outstanding performance across all datasets and performance metrics, securing the best mean results. Despite the imbalanced nature of the problem, which makes the ordinal classification task notably difficult, MLP-T achieved good results in all classes across all datasets, including the underrepresented classes. Remarkably, MLP-T was the only approach that correctly classified at least one instance of the minority class in all datasets. Furthermore, MLP-T secured the top rank in all cases, confirming its suitability for the problem addressed.

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The present study has been supported by the “Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)” (grant ref.: PID2020-115454GB-C22/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant refs.: PID2020-115454GB-C21 and TED2021-131777B-C22). Antonio Manuel Gómez-Orellana has been supported by “Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades de la Junta de Andalucía” (grant ref.: PREDOC-00489). David Guijo-Rubio has been supported by the “Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)” MCIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR (grant ref.: JDC2022-048378-I).

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Correspondence to Víctor M. Vargas .

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Gómez-Orellana, A.M. et al. (2024). Energy Flux Prediction Using an Ordinal Soft Labelling Strategy. In: Ferrández Vicente, J.M., Val Calvo, M., Adeli, H. (eds) Bioinspired Systems for Translational Applications: From Robotics to Social Engineering. IWINAC 2024. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14675. Springer, Cham.

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