Keywords

A megatrend is a significant trend, development or process. However, the term megatrend has not been clearly defined, and many different interpretations and aspects of megatrends can be found in the relevant literature. Almost every study has its own definitions and delimitations of megatrends.

Nevertheless, examining some of the definitions can give a sense of what the term megatrend encompasses:

According to John Naisbitt, who coined the term, megatrends are large transformative processes with global reach, broad scope, and dramatic impact (Naisbitt, 1982).

A more recent definition from the OECD (2016) describes megatrends as large-scale social, economic, political, environmental or technological changes that are slow to form but which, once they have taken root, exercise a profound and lasting influence on many if not most human activities, processes and perceptions. Furthermore, the OECD asserts that with such relatively stable drivers, megatrends are likely to continue for some time into the future.

EY (2022) describes megatrends as large, transformative global forces that define the future by having a far-reaching impact on business, economies, industries, societies, and individuals.

Furthermore, ESPAS (2019) describes megatrends as trends that occur on a large scale; they therefore affect large groups of humans, states, regions, and in many cases, the entire world. … their lifespan is normally at least a decade, and often longer. Most importantly, megatrends are linked to our present and are therefore phenomena we can already observe today. Because mega-trends are measurable, and affect many, and for a long period of time, they lend a previously foggy future an increased degree of visibility.

Additionally, according to PwC (2016), megatrends are macroeconomic and geostrategic forces that are shaping the world. They are factual and often backed by verifiable data. By definition, they are big and include some of society’s biggest challenges—and opportunities.

Finally, the European Commission (n.d.) defines megatrends as long-term global driving forces that are observable in the present and are likely to continue to have a significant influence for a few decades.

Therefore, having read several prominent definitions, it is clear that megatrends are not just trends. In this book, megatrends are large global trends that are long-lasting, can be empirically documented and have a major impact on businesses, economies, industries, societies and individuals. Furthermore, megatrends can also be used as a direction for the future.

The focus of this book is agriculture, the food industry and food markets and the internal and external factors that surround and influence them. Agriculture and the food industry are often considered as one coherent integrated sector. They are both part of a value chain in which the individual links are in many cases strong. However, when it comes to internal factors such as structural development, internationalization and forms of ownership, the development in agriculture is different from the development in the food industry.

Some megatrends can have a broad impact on society. This applies, for example, to demographic developments, digitization and climate change. In contrast, other megatrends affect specific parts of society, and this book focuses on some of the megatrends that are of particular significance to agriculture and the food industry, including agricultural and food markets and food supply.

The book also has an empirical approach. This means that megatrends are documented to the greatest extent possible by statistical and empirical data. As emphasized by PwC (2016), “megatrends are factual and often backed by verifiable data”, while the European Commission (n.d.) adds “that megatrends are observable in the present and are likely to continue”. The intention of the empirical approach is to strengthen the scientific platform for the analyses.

The book also has a holistic approach in that all significant economic, structural, political and market megatrends are identified. An overall cross-sectional picture of all megatrends is interesting because the sector is influenced by—and follows—many different megatrends, with various directions and drivers. A narrow description of megatrends may, therefore, be deficient if it is to be the platform for an overall strategic plan for a company or an industry.

Although megatrends are important as a long-term guide, shocks that are impossible to prevent or even predict will invariably influence them. Furthermore, it is also evident that new megatrends, which we are unable to anticipate or identify, will emerge in the future. For this reason, the book also includes a number of potential disruptions, e.g., new technologies, political or economic changes or potential external shocks, which can set new agendas and directions for agriculture and the food industry.

Finally, the content of the book is intended to be non-normative, which means that megatrends are identified, described and assessed without regard to preferences or political positions. The advantages and disadvantages of megatrends may be highlighted based on economic criteria, while political or emotional conclusions or recommendations are left to the readers.

One might ask: Are megatrends interesting or important at all? Megatrends are largely based on historical developments, and in a world of great change, perhaps the focus should be more on the future than on the past. Or in other words: What can megatrends be used for? Do megatrends matter?

Mapping and describing megatrends can have several purposes:

Megatrends can be used to reveal and explain a historical development. An understanding of the connections between drivers, megatrends and societal impacts can be useful when assessing the effects of political and economic interventions—understanding the present can help us predict the future.

Megatrends can also be used to project a historical or current development: if megatrends are consistent and substantiated, they are likely to continue into the future, although considerable uncertainty is associated with this. This allows us to predict potential upcoming challenges and opportunities. Understanding the past is the best opportunity to make qualified guesses about the future.

Today the world is characterized by far greater changes and more uncertainty and unpredictability than in previous periods. However, in these changing times, a number of more stable trends still exist, and they can be used as important indicators in both the short and long term. By identifying these megatrends and the underlying driving forces, we can reduce both risk and vulnerability in the future.

The identified and described megatrends will:

  • visualize the current development,

  • identify underlying and explanatory drivers and factors,

  • show future challenges, threats and opportunities,

  • give a picture of a future development which may or may not be influenced.

In this book, approximately 75 megatrends and 6 disruptive or new potential trends in agriculture and the food industry have been identified, although the list is not exhaustive and it may transpire that some megatrends are relatively short-lived.

Systematizing and structuring all megatrends in logical groupings is a challenge: Megatrends can affect several subject areas at once: Technology may simultaneously be a driving force behind changes to the structure, markets, resource composition and value chains—and also a disruptive change. However, in this book, megatrends are grouped into the following 10 categories, while a category with potential disruptions is added:

  • Agriculture and agricultural structures

    The structural development of farms and agriculture: The number and size of farms, the ownership and specialization in different parts of the world, etc.

  • The food industry

    The structural development of food companies and the food industry: Size, globalization, M&As and their overall goals.

  • Food value chains

    The structure and integration in the value chain and the respective position of companies in the value chain and their market power.

  • The position of agriculture

    The economic and structural significance of agriculture and the food industry in different regions.

  • Agricultural and trade policy

    The aims and content of agricultural and trade policy, and its impact on agriculture, the food industry and food markets.

  • Markets

    Market conditions, trade and globalization. How prices change from the farm gate to the retail level.

  • Consumption and consumers

    Food demand and consumption and the economic, welfare and demographic drivers behind changes in consumption.

  • Resources

    Inputs in agricultural production, productivity and resource scarcity. Changes and trends in inputs.

  • Food supply

    World food situation, food crises and global diversion of production.

  • Disruptive or new potential trends

    New future trends, drivers and disruptive changes that may influence existing megatrends.

Placing megatrends into groups makes it easier to obtain an overview, although the groups and the placement of the individual megatrends can always be discussed.