The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on the European Gas Supply: An Emphasis on New Gas Import Infrastructure in the EU

Abstract

The world population has increased by 30 percent in this millennium (UNCTAD 2023), resulting in a natural increase in energy consumption. However, energy demand has grown at an even higher rate than the population. Global energy consumption has increased by more than 50 percent from the year 2000 to today.

Appendix: Dependence on Russian Natural Gas

	Consumption	Production	Gas/total energy consumption	Imports/gas consumption	Russia gas import share		Russia gas dependence index 2021
	2021	2021	2021 (A)	2021 (B) (%)	2013 (%)	2021 (C) (%)	(Calculation = A*B*C*100) (%)
Austria	9	1	22%	89	63	80	15.66
Belgium	17	0	22%	100	0	12	2.64
Bulgaria	3.3	0	15%	100	100	80	12.00
Croatia	2.8	0	28%	100	0	0	0
Cyprus	0	0	0%	100	0	0	0
Czechia	9.1	0	19%	100	100	100	19.00
Denmark	2.3	1.3	12%	43	0	0	0
Estonia	0.5	0	7%	100	100	67	4.69
Finland	2	0	6%	100	100	97	5.82
France	43	0	16%	100	20	22	3.52
Germany	90.5	4.5	26%	95	41	66	16.30
Greece	7	0	24%	100	66	40	9.60
Hungary	10.8	1.5	38%	86	95	95	31.05
Ireland	5.1	1.4	29%	73	0	0	0
Italy	72.5	3.2	41%	96	45	40	15.74
Latvia	1.2	0	27%	100	100	100	27.00
Lithuania	2.2	0	32%	100	100	37	11.84
Luxembourg	0.8	0	18%	100	25	11	1.98
Malta	0.4	0	Not available	100	0	0	0
Netherlands	35.1	18.1	36%	48	14	35	6.05
Poland	23.2	3.9	19%	83	77	56	8.83
Portugal	5.9	0	22%	100	0	14	3.08
Romania	11.4	8.5	29%	25	92	78	5.66
Slovakia	5.3	0	27%	100	100	69	18.63
Slovenia	0.9	0	12%	100	58	14	1.68
Spain	33.9	0	22%	100	0	9	1.98
Sweden	1.3	0	2%	100	0	3	0.06

1. Sources The Author based on AEA (2022); BP (2022); European Commission (2022b); Eurostat (2022); IGU (2022)

	LNG imports/gas imports	Russia LNG import share		Comment
	2021 (%)	2013 (%)	2021 (%)
Austria	0	0	0	Austria’s gas imports from Russia have exceeded Austria’s gas consumption since the year 2017
Belgium	20	0	32	US supplies accounted for 4% of Belgium’s LNG imports in 2021
Bulgaria	0	0	0	Greece's gas import share was 11% in 2021, though Greece does not produce any gas (=gas transit)
Croatia	74	0	0	IGU suggests that Croatia received 5% of its LNG net imports from Russia in 2021
Cyprus	0	0	0	Cyprus plans to complete its LNG receiving terminal in 2023
Czechia	0	0	0	Czechia is completely dependent on Russian pipe gas
Denmark	0	0	0	Denmark imports less than a half of gas it consumes
Estonia	6	0	100	Estonia's LNG imports were symbolic in 2021 (0.03 bcm)
Finland	9	0	72	IGU indicates that Finland received 95% of its LNG net imports from Russia in 2021
France	35	0	22	France received the majority of its gas (32%) from Norway in 2021
Germany	0	0	0	Germany did not import any LNG in 2021
Greece	17	0	0	Azerbaijan's gas import share was 19% in 2021
Hungary	0	0	0	Hungary is critically dependent on Russian gas
Ireland	0	0	0	Ireland imports all its gas from the UK via pipelines
Italy	14	0	0	Though Italy imports a substantial amount of Russian pipe gas, it did not import any LNG from Russia in 2021
Latvia	0	0	100	Latvia is extremely dependent on Russian gas. Latvia's LNG imports were non-existent in 2021 (0.006 bcm)
Lithuania	63	0	0	IGU indicates that Lithuania received 19% of its net LNG imports from Russia in 2021
Luxembourg	0	0	0	Luxembourg consumed less than 1 bcm of natural gas in 2021
Malta	100	0	0	Malta began its gas (LNG) imports in 2016
Netherlands	29	0	40	Dutch gas production has declined from 61 bcm in 2000 to 18 bcm in 2021
Poland	22	86	2	Poland's LNG imports were non-existent in 2013 (0.007 bcm). Poland’s first LNG terminal opened in 2015
Portugal	98	0	14	Portugal imported some pipe gas from Spain (2% of total gas imports in 2021)
Romania	0	0	0	Bulgaria's gas import share was 19% in 2021, though Bulgaria does not produce any gas (=gas transit)
Slovakia	0	0	0	Slovakia is completely dependent on Russian pipe gas
Slovenia	0	0	0	Austria's gas import share was 85% in 2021, though Austria does not produce any gas
Spain	55	0	16	Algeria was Spain’s largest gas supplier in 2021 (over 40%)
Sweden	36	0	6	IGU indicates that Sweden received 47% of its net LNG imports from Russia in 2021

1. Sources The Author based on AEA (2022); BP (2022); European Commission (2022b); Eurostat (2022); Gazprom (2015-2020); IGU (2022)