Abstract
According to the authors’ concept, the Cybernetic Revolution is the last of the major production (technological) revolutions in all history following the Agrarian and Industrial Revolutions. It is a major transition, from the Industrial Production Principle to production and service provision based on the implementation of self-regulating/self-managing systems. The first phase of this revolution began in the 1950s and 1960s and brought the development of powerful information technologies. Between the 2030s and the 2070s, the final phase of this revolution will lead to a new level of self-operated control, namely, to the level of self-regulating/self-managing systems, which can operate with no human intervention. Grinin et al. have described these systems in the previous chapter. In the present chapter, the authors study the main directions of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution, which will form a peculiar and closely related cluster of innovative directions for the development of technologies. This complex Grinin et al. call the MANBRIC complex/convergence. This is an acronym that includes medicine, additive (3D printers), nano- and biotechnologies, robotics, IT, and cognitive sciences., The authors show that a number of reasons medicine will be the first sphere to start the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution.
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Notes
- 1.
Here we refer the reader to a number of our works (Grinin & Korotayev, 2010c, 2014; Grinin et al., 2010; Korotayev & Tsirel, 2010; Korotayev et al., 2011, 2020; Korotayev & Grinin, 2012; Grinin, 2020a, 2020b; Grinin & Grinin, 2015a, 2015b, 2016, 2022; Grinin et al., 2016, 2017a, 2017b, 2020, 2021a; Akaev, 2017).
- 2.
Technological systems and/or techno-economic paradigms are complex sets of major technological and industrial directions of a given period, which are currently the most advanced and determine the economy (about them see Mensch, 1979; Kleinknecht, 1981, 1987; Dickson, 1983; Dosi, 1984; Freeman, 1987; Tylecote, 1992; Glazyev, 1993; Mayevsky, 1997; Modelski & Thompson, 1996; Modelski, 2001, 2006; Yakovets, 2001; Freeman & Louçã, 2001; Ayres, 2006; Kleinknecht & van der Panne, 2006; Dator, 2006; Hirooka, 2006; Papenhausen, 2008; see also Lazurenko, 1992; Glazyev, 2009; Polterovich, 2009; Perez, 2002).
- 3.
The full scheme of technological paradigms looks as follows:
– the first wave (1780–the late 1840s): textile industry;
– the second wave (the late 1840s–the 1890s): railway lines, coal, steel;
– the third wave (1890–the end of the 1940s): electricity, chemical industry and heavy engineering;
– the fourth wave (the end of 1940s–the beginning of the 1980s): auto-mobile manufacturing, manmade materials, electronics;
– the fifth wave (early 1980s–~2020s): microelectronics, personal computers, biotechnologies; for the sixth wave see below. Of course, there were many other branches and technologies within each paradigm, but these are the most powerful ones. For example, as we will see in Chap. 9, biotechnology has been developing very quickly.
- 4.
- 5.
Thus, the first computers appeared in the 1940s, when the third paradigm (Grinin, 2022f) was ending and the fourth was emerging, and their role was generally minor. They started to play the leading role only in the fifth paradigm (Grinin, 2022c). Electric transport appeared along with combustion-engine vehicles, but only during the last decade we observe efforts to make it the leading type of transport. Perhaps, this transition will occur within the sixth technological paradigm, but probably close to its end, that is, around the 2060s (see Chap. 10 for details).
- 6.
Thus, high-speed trains, which have been developing since at least the 1960s (i.e., since the beginning of the Cybernetic Revolution) and which constitute a truly innovative cluster, although they play an important role in a number of countries (Japan, China, France, etc.), have not generally become a very significant sector.
- 7.
However, some researchers believe that the sixth paradigm has already emerged, while others (including us) believe that it will only be formed in the near future).
- 8.
NBIC-Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno.
- 9.
There are many different approaches; for example, there is an idea about the breakthrough role of the so-called urban innovation systems (Batty, 2018).
- 10.
The order of the letters in the acronym does not reflect our understanding of the relative importance of the areas that make up the complex. For example, biotechnologies will be more important than nanotechnologies, let alone additive manufacturing. The order is simply for ease of pronunciation. However, it is important to bear in mind that the relative importance of these directions may change over different time periods. So it is possible that nanotechnology will be already more important than biotechnology by 2070.
- 11.
It seems necessary to say a few words about the control technologies mentioned in this figure. What is control technology? The term control technology stands for devices that control, regulate, monitor, collect data, communicate and diagnose. Along with sensors and actuators, controllers are a central element of automation technology. According to Control Technology (2023), control technologies should come from a single source to ensure the consistent performance required for efficient automation. They are also combined with control software. The integrated control program covers a wide range of motion functions: from single-axis positioning and the electronic cam to robotics (Control Technology, 2023).
- 12.
In the Introduction, we gave the example of a bionic eye. And this is one of many examples of how medicine can combine innovative technologies (3D printers, ICT, biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, etc.) into a single complex (into a single self-regulating system) for a higher priority goals (both from a humanitarian and economic point of view).
- 13.
Geriatrics is a separate branch of gerontology, which deals with the study, prevention and treatment of diseases of old age. It aims at supporting health by preventing and treating diseases and disability in older adults.
- 14.
In the Introduction we emphasized that at the same time it will lead to growing worries and threats.
- 15.
In Chap. 3 we dwelled in detail on the idea that AI is a special technology and not a production system, that is, the concepts of self-regulating and self-managing systems and AI lie in somewhat different dimensions, although they are related.
- 16.
In the previous chapters we have pointed out that this Revolution has been called by different names (in particular, the scientific and technological revolution [Bernal, 1965]). Anyway, in the 1960s, it became completely clear that it was a new technological revolution. While during that period it was still quite acceptable to speak of a new Industrial Revolution (see, e.g., Sylvester & Klotz, 1983), increasing the number of Industrial Revolutions after each technological wave up to three or four (Rifkin, 2011; Schwab, 2016) seems counter-conceptual in our view.
- 17.
However, the recent energy crisis has contributed to a new rise of nuclear energy. Also, there has been some advance in experiments with thermonuclear energy.
- 18.
It is worth remembering that a production principle consists of six phases, while a production revolution consists of three phases, which correspond to the first three phases of a production principle. For details see Chap. 2.
- 19.
Animal husbandry, which developed during the modernization phase of the Agrarian Revolution did not become the leading direction of the final phase of this revolution (see Chap. 2).
- 20.
- 21.
The discussions of the inevitable decline of the American power began as early as the 1970–1980s (see, e.g., Vogel, 1979; Kennedy, 1987). Since the 1990s, one observes an increasing number of political forecasts predicting an imminent decline of the American supremacy and simultaneous coming to the fore of Asian economies (Attali, 1991; Colson & Eckerd, 1991; Arrighi, 1994; Frank, 1997; Buchanan, 2002; Kupchan, 2002; Todd, 2003; Wallerstein, 2003; Mandelbaum, 2005; NIC, 2008, 2012; see also: Grinin, 2010; Grinin & Korotayev, 2010a, 2010b, 2015; 2020; Zhdanov & Korotayev, 2022).
- 22.
- 23.
We can see some evidence in the previous production revolutions. Irrigated agriculture was not the most important sector of agriculture in pre-state barbarian societies, but then irrigated agriculture came to the fore and became the basis for the first civilizations; similarly, the cotton industry was not the most important industrial sector in the first half of the eighteenth century, but then it became the leading industrial sector.
- 24.
The COVID-19 pandemic has seen one such breakthrough with a new type of vaccine (see Chap. 12 for details), although so far they have not yet played the role they were intended to.
- 25.
For example, the cooling of the fourteenth and then seventeenth centuries increased the demand for warm woolen clothing, thus contributing to the increased production of wool and woolen fabrics and supporting the spread of manufacturing in England. And this was a powerful impetus for the development of the Industrial Revolution there as well.
- 26.
However, “green” hydrogen combined with green electricity, produced during periods of low electricity demand, when it is almost never used, will be much cheaper. We are talking about hypothetical projects to accumulate the low-demand green electricity mentioned above to produce hydrogen.
- 27.
Already today, there are certain functions in some service sectors where robots have replaced humans, for example, in identifying which items on store shelves are sold out and need to be replenished.
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This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 23-11-00160).
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Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Korotayev, A. (2024). Cybernetic Revolution and MANBRIC Technologies. When, How and Where Will the Forthcoming Breakthrough Start?. In: Cybernetic Revolution and Global Aging. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56764-3_4
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