Abstract
In this chapter, Grinin et al. present an analysis of the development of a number of technologies: nanotechnologies, robotics, additive and cognitive technologies, ICT and AI, as well as forecasts for their future. Together with medicine, they are integrating in the united MANBRIC complex (this is an acronym made up of the first letters of seven technologies). Each direction has its own future, problems and coordinate system. The authors try to forecast major breakthroughs for each technology. In general, according to Grinin et al., they have a bright future. The chapter analyzes the possible advances in various technologies, highlights the challenges, problems and difficulties along the way and analyzes the possible negative consequences. A comprehensive analysis of these technologies within a single chapter allows Grinin et al. to show that the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution will not be a wave of diverse innovations, but a complexly integrated and interconnected set of new generation technologies that will create an era of self-regulating/self-managing systems. The chapter opens up to the reader many new perspectives, ideas, facts and problems that humanity will face in the process of the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution.
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Notes
- 1.
Knowledge of the properties of nanoparticles also opens up great opportunities for understanding the properties of matter and its evolution. In particular, all systems contain small amounts of hundreds of undetectable substances, many of which are present in the form of nanoparticles (Melikhov, 2018: 10).
- 2.
The prospects of this field were heralded by the Nobel laureate Richard Feynman in his report ‘There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom’, presented in 1959 at the California Institute of Technology at the annual meeting of the American Physical Society.
- 3.
For example, according to the BCC Research (2012), the sales volume of nanotechnology products amounted $11.67 billion in 2009 and could reach $290 billion by 2028 (Emergen Research, 2021). However, there have been even more optimistic forecasts. For example, according to the UK Department of Trade and Industry, the demand for nanotechnologies will exceed $1 trillion annually by 2015, and the number of experts in this field will increase to two million people.
- 4.
In this respect, one of these technologies, created for personal use, is interesting. An American chemical engineer Mark Davis has developed a new way to fight his wife’s cancer. He discovered a special capsule that has a structure similar to sugar and is therefore not rejected or excreted by the body. This capsule contains a drug that can remain in the body for weeks. It searches for a tumor that moves within the blood vessel system. Cancer cells are more acidic than normal healthy cells, and, when they are found, the capsule opens and releases the powerful medicine. His wife with a terminal pancreatic cancer at the stage of metastasis successfully underwent such a treatment (LaPook, 2013).
- 5.
Chinese scientists have developed a system that can generate electricity through the decomposition of organic matter and removal of organic compounds from waste water. Yanbiao Liu with colleagues have developed a nanotube-based photocatalytic fuel cell that uses solar energy to break down organic compounds in waste water and convert chemical energy into electrical one.
- 6.
At the same time, they have been the basis for pessimistic social forecasts that robots will take millions of jobs from society and create huge unemployment. More on this below.
- 7.
Courier robots have been widely introduced in recent years (delivery drones are also used, but less frequently).
- 8.
Robots already show considerable results and prospects in this sphere (Yeoman & Mars, 2012). There are also apologists for this direction. However, it is quite possible (and it would be reasonable) that such production can be forbidden. Let us note that feminists have already begun such a campaign (see Griffin, 2015).
- 9.
This group particularly demonstrates the ambiguity of the above-mentioned concept of a robot.
- 10.
RoboBee—is a tiny robot capable of partially untethered flight. Its wingspan is 3 cm. It cannot carry a control system or a power source for flight (Wood et al., 2013). It is intended to be used for search and rescue, surveillance and artificial pollination (and, we believe, for military purposes as well).
- 11.
Here, the emerging transition in microelectronics away from the silicon carbide (SiC), for which there is currently no alternative to. Gallium nitride (GaN), which is more efficient in a number of parameters, is likely to help. GaN has already become the leading new material for microelectronics in a wide range of segments (see, e.g., Bondar, 2018).
- 12.
For example, HeroSurg allows overcoming many of the limitations of existing robotic laparoscopic systems, including collision avoidance capability, modularity and automatic patient/bed adjustment.
- 13.
- 14.
Self-driving cars are also robots, but we will discuss them in a separate paragraph.
- 15.
However, it is possible, as some researchers believe, that one of the most perspective directions in development of robots will be intimate services (we have already spoken about it above and in the Introduction) if it is not forbidden.
- 16.
For example, the goal of the RoboBee project is to make a fully autonomous swarm of flying robots for different tasks.
- 17.
In fact, they are still being tested and there are many restrictions, including speed. In any case, the driver must remain in his seat, be fastened and ready to resume driving at the system’s first request. Its activity is monitored by a separate camera in the interior.
- 18.
This fully applies to self-driving electric locomotives, which are being developed in some countries.
- 19.
It is worth bearing in mind that the autopilot in aircraft appeared a very long time ago, but there are still no unmanned aircraft.
- 20.
They are discussed. In particular, the European Parliament proposed to insure the liability of unmanned vehicles. Some countries have already adopted such laws. But legal issues are often resolved very slowly.
- 21.
- 22.
The usual path for innovation to spread from military-state interests to business applications and dissemination to the general public.
- 23.
For example, for the first time, a completely paralysed person has been able to form sentences using an implanted device that reads brain signals (Servick, 2022).
- 24.
First Bionic Eye Implant (Da Cruz et al., 2013).
- 25.
In the future, a compact neuromorphic ‘electronic nose’ may be useful for doctors to diagnose diseases, for security services to detect weapons and various substances, etc. (Sandomirskaya, 2021).
- 26.
This is how Elon Musk described the Neuralink technology. Measuring four by four millimeters, the chip is claimed to be connected to a thousand “threads” thinner than a human hair, which enter the brain through four holes drilled in the skull. Electrodes embedded in the threads, which are ‘sewed’ to the chip, can then pick up electrical signals from neurons that indicate activity in the brain, which is then translated into movement or behavior (Chowdhury, 2020). But during the presentation, Musk showed a larger chip, the size of a large coin, which was implanted in the brain of a pig. This chip has 1024 wires. Characteristically, they are implanted into the brain by a robot. The chip is powered by a battery that lasts for a day—the battery is recharged wirelessly, like a smartphone. Data transfer is the same as via Wi-Fi. The entire implantation procedure takes less than an hour. Behind the outwardly progressive goal, however, lies the desire to work the human brain with AI. At a deeper level, the chip is meant to boost human brainpower so that we can keep pace with a future shaped by artificial general intelligence (Chowdhury, 2020).
- 27.
However the powerful progress in existing ICT is quite possible within the next three-four decades (see below).
- 28.
The transition in microelectronics from silicon carbide to gallium nitride has already been mentioned above, but obviously, this will not be enough for the project described.
- 29.
- 30.
At the same time, when modelling neural networks, developers try to make them as similar as possible to biological neural networks in terms of information processing. In these networks, information is encoded in the form of intervals between impulses generated by a neuron in response to locally integrated spatial and temporal excitation from impulse signals arriving at its inputs. The technology focuses on a fully hardware implementation (Benderskaya & Tolstov, 2013; Gavrilov & Kangler, 2015).
- 31.
As already mentioned, neuromorphic networks are characterized by the ability to model fragments of the biological nervous system and the intellectual properties of the brain; evolutionary computation models natural evolution and formalizes the basic laws of genetics; swarm intelligence models the social behavior of organisms that live in a colony (swarm, flock, etc.); artificial immune systems model the basic principles of biological immune systems; fuzzy systems are based on studies of the interaction of organisms with the environment (Skobtsov, 2008).
- 32.
It is likely that a new type of chats will become a breakthrough direction, but they are unlikely to be able to become a saleable product for a wide range of buyers. It is not without reason that at least some of the services offered by Chat-GTP and others like it are free.
- 33.
For some time now, they have been developing a negotiator bot that can lie and negotiate with humans. According to Quartz, during the training, the system used more than 5.8 thousand real human dialogues during negotiations, collected through an online crowdsourcing platform (Amazon Mechanical Turk. https://www.cnews.ru/news/top/2017-06-15_iskusstvennyj_intellekt_facebook_nauchilsya_vrat).
- 34.
It is characteristically that even such a probable future technology as a quantum computer, which will be able to outperform modern computers by orders of magnitude, will, according to futurologists, focus largely on the ability to perform calculations of various processes in the human body, including the brain, and, as expected, it is medicine that will be one of its main application areas (see: Bagrayev, 2015).
- 35.
Dozens of them have already been created, but there are very big problems with errors in the calculations. Although there is information about progress in this direction.
- 36.
For the first time, it became possible to create a working transistor based on a single atom. For a single-atom transistor to be used in real devices, one atom must be positioned exactly on a silicon chip. According to the nanotechnology journal Nature Nanotechnology (Fuechsle et al., 2012), this is exactly what researchers have achieved. Using a scanning tunnelling microscope (a device that allows researchers to see atoms and manipulate them with precision), they cut a narrow channel through the silicon base. Phosphine gas was then used to place a single phosphorus atom between two electrodes in the desired area. When an electric current passes through such a device, it amplifies and transmits an electric signal, which is the basic principle of operation of any transistor (Tadviser, 2015).
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This chapter has been prepared with support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 23-11-00160).
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Grinin, L., Grinin, A., Korotayev, A. (2024). Nanotechnologies, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and Other MANBRIC Technologies in the Long-Term Development. In: Cybernetic Revolution and Global Aging. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56764-3_10
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