Abstract
Climate change has long-term impacts on precipitation patterns, magnitude, and intensity, affecting regional water resources availability. Besides, understanding the interannual to decadal variations of streamflows in a river basin is paramount for watershed management, primarily extreme events such as floods and droughts. This study investigates impact of climate change in streamflows estimation for four sub-basins of the Mahanadi River, in India. The study includes three major components: (i) Historical trend analysis of hydroclimatic variables, using Mann–Kendall test; (ii) Statistical downscaling of GCM generated precipitation using change factor method and KnnCAD V4 stochastic weather generator; (iii) Dependable flow analysis of future streamflows predicted using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for various future GCM scenarios. It is observed that during the historical period, there is a decrease in number of rainy days and total annual precipitation in all sub-basins. However, the analysis also indicates an increase in flood intensity in two of the sub-basins. The decadal future precipitation has a marginal decrease in precipitation (up to 10%) for future scenarios; however, the precipitation events with high intensities increase. The results indicate that the magnitudes of 5 and 10% dependable flows are higher than the historically observed streamflows, for all future scenarios. This indicates a significant increase in extreme flood events in the basin. Further, only one of the sub-basins has shown an increase in water availability for agriculture and drinking water purposes (75 and 95% dependable flows) in the future. Understanding future flood events in the Mahanadi basin can help decision-makers to implement appropriate mitigation strategies.
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This research did not receive any specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
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Some data pertaining to the rainfall and river flow, which are classified data used in the study, were provided by a third party (Water Resources Department, Govt. of Odisha and Central Water Commission, Bhubaneswar, India). Direct request for these materials may be made to the provider.
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Conceptualisation: [Nayak P. C.]; Methodology: [Nayak P. C., Roshan Srivastav]; Formal analysis and investigation: [Nayak P. C., Poonam Wagh, Venkatesh B., Thomas T., Satyaji Rao Y.R.S.]; Writing - original draft preparation: [Nayak P. C., Poonam Wagh]; Supervision: [Nayak P. C., Roshan Srivastav].
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Nayak, P.C., Wagh, P., Venkatesh, B., Thomas, T., Srivastav, R. (2024). Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation for Mahanadi Basin in India—Prediction of Future Streamflows. In: Satheeshkumar, S., Thirukumaran, V., Karunanidhi, D. (eds) Modern River Science for Watershed Management. Water Science and Technology Library, vol 128. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-54704-1_15
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