Abstract
The analysis of the post-colonial history of Niger has made it possible to single out two national separatist revolutionary episodes and two Islamist ones, along with one revolution analogue (which can be considered as part of the Fifth revolutionary wave of the twentieth century) and one “coupvolution” (2009–2010). The latter is a rather specific type of revolutionary process when the revolutionary mass mobilization in the first phase of the revolutionary process is accompanied by a military coup in the second phase; during the latter, many of the demands of the participants of the first phase of the evolutionary process are fulfilled. In addition, the quasi-revolutionary episode (with a pronounced influence of the center-peripheral dissonance effect) of February 2021 and the military coup attempt of March 2021 are analyzed as indicators of the possibility of new coup-volutionary and other destabilizing events. Finally, against this background, authors analyze the 2023 coup in Niger.
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Notes
- 1.
On October 25, 2021, we had an interview in Niamey with Mahamane Ousmane, one of the leaders of the pro-democracy movement in Niger, who came to power in 1993 through free elections that the democratic opposition managed to hold. Ousmane agreed that it was no coincidence that the process of transition to democracy in Niger took place completely synchronously with the revolutions of the late 1980s and early 1990s in the USSR, Eastern Europe, Mali, and Ethiopia. In fact, he thereby acknowledged that the Nigerien “revolution analogue” of this time could be considered as an integral part of this revolutionary wave (see also Ousmane, 2002).
- 2.
. The first Tuareg uprising (1962–1964) only engulfed the northern territories of Mali (for detail see Korotayev & Khokhlova, 2021). Thus, the Second Tuareg uprising in the Sahel became the First Tuareg uprising in Niger.
- 3.
See also Chapter “Introduction: Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region” (Besenyő et al., 2024, this volume), Chapter “Terrorist Financing from North Africa to the Sahel Region: Exhaustible or Inexhaustible Stream?” (Pásztor, 2024, this volume), Chapter “Mali: Safe Heaven to Terrorist?” (Besenyő & Sólyomfi, 2024, this volume), and Chapter “Terrorism and Chad: Ethnicism, Mismanagement and Great Power Influence” (Vogel, 2024, this volume) in this book.
- 4.
- 5.
A series of in-depth interviews with representatives of the political elite of Niger we conducted on October 21-26, 2021, revealed that during the years when the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism was in power, the Tuareg policy was very delicate and based on negotiations and compromises.
- 6.
See, e.g., Baldaro and Seydou (2020), De Castelli (2014), Harmon (2014), Huckabey (2013), Ibrahim (2017), Kalyvas (2015), Nsaibia and Weiss (2020), Lounnas (2014, 2019), Mueller (2016), Walther and Christopoulos (2015). See also Chapter “Introduction: Terrorism and Political Contention in North Africa and the Sahel Region” (Besenyő et al., 2024, this volume), Chapter “Terrorist Financing from North Africa to the Sahel Region: Exhaustible or Inexhaustible Stream?” (Pásztor, 2024, this volume), Chapter “Mali: Safe Heaven to Terrorist?” (Besenyő & Sólyomfi, 2024, this volume), and Chapter “Terrorism and Chad: Ethnicism, Mismanagement and Great Power Influence” (Vogel, 2024, this volume).
- 7.
It is noteworthy that Shekau was killed on May 19, 2021 during the ISWAP operation to capture the Boko Haram base in the Sambis Forest in northeastern Nigeria (near the border with Niger) (Zenn, 2021: 2).
- 8.
A series of in-depth interviews with representatives of the political elite and military forces of Niger we conducted on September, 6–10, 2023 in Niamey.
- 9.
For reasons to consider the 2023 coup in Niger as a “coupvolution” see Chapter “Coupvolution as a Mechanism of Regime Change in the Sahel” in this book (Fain et al., 2024, this volume). It may be also considered as “an analogue of revolution” (on this notion see, e.g., Grinin et al., 2022); yet, it remains to be seen whether the coup leaders will be able to initiate changes that could be qualified as “revolutionary” (there are some hints that, unlike Gamal Abdel Nasser, or Thomas Sankara, they might not possess any sufficiently strong ideology for that).
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Korotayev, A., Issaev, L., Ilyina, A., Zinkina, J., Voronina, E. (2024). Revolutionary History of Niger: From Independence to 2023 Coup. In: Besenyő, J., Issaev, L., Korotayev, A. (eds) Terrorism and Political Contention. Perspectives on Development in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53429-4_9
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