Risks and Uncertainty

Abstract

How meaningful is the $31 B/year ROM value of potential commercial lunar revenues? Can we rely on it? Let’s add a dose of reality. Our forecasts are subject to multiple layers of uncertainty. As we have made clear, and explicitly documented, these forecasts are a result of a modeling exercise using a series of key assumptions. Any change to those assumptions and the revenue forecasts will change accordingly. We even noted where we had some missing subsector revenue calculation data at this stage (examples included storage, low-g and high-vacuum manufacture for terrestrial uses, and mining of PGMs for Earth use). As was the case on Earth, as markets developed due to early space exploration efforts in the sixties and seventies which were totally unexpected (think GPS-enabling, think personal microcomputers), the same will probably be the case with lunar commerce. There may be markets which we have not considered here, and which could even eventually emerge as the dominant sectors, and in this work to date we assume zero revenue from such potential sources. But at least we have a slot for them in Sector 11. And what about the potential impact of the newly developing AI field on the lunar economy? Any significant move away from the human-tended base-setup we have described toward an AI/robotic lunar operation would certainly undermine, or require a reassessment of, many of the assumptions behind this work, which are premised on the need to support a growing number of human personnel on the Moon. But we do now have a beginning, representing our collective knowledge, and its limitations, in November 2022.