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Long-Term Sustainable Energy Transition of Ecuador’s Residential Sector Using a National Survey, Geospatial Analysis with Machine Learning, and Agent-Based Modeling

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Congress on Research, Development, and Innovation in Renewable Energies

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Abstract

In 2020, Ecuador’s residential sector consumed 13 million Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE), representing 15.7% of the total energy consumption in urban and rural households in the country. Of this consumption, liquefied petroleum gas accounted for 51.8%, electricity 38.4%, firewood 9.7%, and natural gas 0.1%. The main uses in this sector are home heating (49%), home ventilation (29%), and water heating, cooking, lighting, and household appliances (22%). This research aims to study the long-term energy transition of Ecuador’s residential sector. The methodology applies the geoAI MUSE-RASA framework and is based on a national survey, geospatial analysis of large spatiotemporal datasets applying machine learning techniques, and agent-based modeling. The survey results and the spatial distribution of per capita GDP show that the population can be classified into five agents, characterized by investment objectives, search rules, decision strategies, and a budget for investing in household energy technologies. Additional results include national and agent-specific demand, supply, consumption, and emissions. The sustainable scenario shows that by 2050, the total energy demand in the residential sector will reach 103.2 PJ, distributed among home heating (45 PJ), water heating (19 PJ), space ventilation (0.2 PJ), cooking (12 PJ), lighting (5 PJ), and appliances (22 PJ). In the case of home heating, three technologies will play a significant role in the sector’s sustainable transition: electric boilers, biomass boilers, and heat pumps by 2050. The results of this research can be used for evaluating energy policy when considering the spatial distribution of the population and their socioeconomic and developmental characteristics.

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Acknowledgments

Diego Moya, Christian Castro, César Arroba, and Cristian Pérez have been funded by UTA, DIDE research project, Award No. UTA-CONIN-2020-0296-R. Diego Moya has been also funded by the Ecuadorian Secretariat for Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation (SENESCYT), Award No. CZ03-35-2017, and supported by The Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet Doctoral Training Partnership, Grantham Institute, at Imperial College London. The Institute for Applied Sustainability Research (IIASUR) supports international research on global sustainability applied to the Global South. We acknowledge the important comments and suggestions made by the anonymous reviewers to improve the quality, clarity, and strictness of this chapter. This research was developed during the PhD studies of Dr. Moya at Imperial College London and in collaboration with the coauthors of this study. The edition and submission of this research paper have been developed during Dr. Moya’s position at Saudi Aramco’s TSPD-TOS team. Dr. Moya acknowledges the support and endorsement of Dr. Ali Al-Dawood to submit this chapter. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect Saudi Aramco’s official policies and do not reveal confidential data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Technology Outlook and Strategy Division, Technology Strategy and Planning Department, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia

    Diego Moya

  2. Institute for Applied Sustainability Research, IIASUR, Quito, Ecuador

    Diego Moya, Dennis Copara & Alexander Borja

  3. Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington, UK

    Diego Moya, Sara Giarola & Adam Hawkes

  4. Carrera de Ingeniería Mecánica, Facultad de Ingeniería Civil y Mecánica, Universidad Técnica de Ambato, Ambato, Ecuador

    César Arroba, Christian Castro & Cristian Pérez

  5. School of Management, Milan, Italy

    Sara Giarola

  6. RFF-CMCC EIEE, Milan, Italy

    Sara Giarola

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  1. Diego Moya
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  2. César Arroba
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  7. Sara Giarola
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  8. Adam Hawkes
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Diego Moya .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Renewable and Alternative Energies, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Mayken Espinoza-Andaluz

  2. Faculty of Social and Humanistic Science, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Ester Melo Vargas

  3. Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Production Science, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Jordy Santana Villamar

  4. Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Production Science, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Ángel Encalada Dávila

  5. Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Production Science, Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Brayan Ordóñez-Saca

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Moya, D. et al. (2024). Long-Term Sustainable Energy Transition of Ecuador’s Residential Sector Using a National Survey, Geospatial Analysis with Machine Learning, and Agent-Based Modeling. In: Espinoza-Andaluz, M., Melo Vargas, E., Santana Villamar, J., Encalada Dávila, Á., Ordóñez-Saca, B. (eds) Congress on Research, Development, and Innovation in Renewable Energies. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-52171-3_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-52171-3_2

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  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-52171-3

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