Keywords

1 Introduction

The movement of people in geographical space creates the framework for domestic tourism, which is a phenomenon of considerable importance in both the social and economic spheres. The social dimension of travel creates a series of conditions determined by the purpose of the journey, its duration, the complex mode of its travel, the total cost of the venture, or the source of its financing. The economic dimension creates a system of relations and phenomena related to the process of people's movement and their stay during the trip, driving entrepreneurship. The above places domestic tourism among the determinants of territorial development, with a particular focus on geographic spaces that are attractive to tourists, as well as an important determinant in shaping the regions' policy to promote its tourist values. Hence, the identification of the current determinants shaping the propensity to travel is an important topic.

The broad grasping of tourism as a totality of phenomena of displacement together with the system of interaction of the travel subject with the visited environment (socio-cultural, natural) emphasises the particular dimension of this phenomenon in the practice of modern societies, which, through the prism of its cognitive function, brings nations closer together and reinforces globalisation, strongly influencing its development. In this context, the role of tourism recovery efforts in the aftermath of the pandemic is highlighted [1, 2]. It is also important to appropriately model a strategy for the development of the domestic tourism services market and the role of tourism at the level of the national economy, through the creation of goals integrating the socio-economic, political, and cultural dimensions [3], in connection with responding to social expectations in this field [4]. The above was the inspiration for undertaking a research thread, oriented towards the analysis of the influence of economic conditions on the consumer preferences of Polish tourists, creating the state of the domestic tourism services market sector in Poland, in order to enrich the source material that could serve decision-makers in shaping the marketing strategy for the development of the tourism services sector in Poland.

2 Tourism in Light of Socio-economic Conditions in Poland and Worldwide—A Literature Review

The process of spatial mobility of people is driven by many motives. Regardless of the purpose and nature of the social movement, what draws attention is the system of relations, shaped by the network of commercial links in connection with tourists’ activities. Hence, the industry is an important dimension of any economy [5], and its stability determines the condition of an important volume of tourism operators and a number of related fields.

Tourism globally is evolving. Socio-economic transformations taking place in the world have created an increase in the volume of tourist traffic. Poland, forming part of the global tourism market, was subject to general trends shaping the service market in question globally. The number of accommodations sold, which is a measure of tourist traffic in Poland, grew successively [6].

Tourism has had a turbulent pandemic period. The 2019–2020 period saw a nearly 74% decline in global tourism activity, shaking the future of 100–120 million jobs, analysis by the World Tourism Organisation [7] confirms. Asia–Pacific (− 84% fewer tourists), as well as the Middle East and Africa region (− 75%), Europe (− 70%), America (− 69%) were the hardest hit by the tourism crisis during this period [7]. In 2020, compared to 2019, the 27 Member States of the European Union saw a 54% decrease in the number of tourists, linked to a 50.9% drop in overnight sales [8]. In Poland, the restriction period came into effect on 14 March 2020, due to the introduction of an epidemic emergency, resulting in a 49% decrease in the number of tourists, associated with a 44% drop in overnight stays sales compared to the previous year [6]. The year 2021 brought a 23% increase in the number of tourists in Poland, associated with a 23% increase in the number of nights provided [9], while the year 2022 already created a 53.5% increase in the number of tourists with a 42.5% increase in the number of nights provided [10]. According to the indications of the World Tourism Organisation, tourism globally has embarked on the path of a stable return to pre-pandemic tourism performance, which justifies a twofold increase in the number of tourists in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year [7]. Restoring tourism in Poland to the pre-pandemic period [11] has become a significant challenge. Indications for year 2023 reveal an 18.1% increase in the number of tourists and a 12% increase in the number of nights sold in this country in Q1, compared to the same period in the previous year [12]. At the same time, it should be noted that the geopolitical situation, directly related to the ongoing war in Ukraine and its socio-economic consequences, related, inter alia, to the high level of inflation (the average inflation rate in April 2023 was 14.7% y/y [13]) and, consequently, to the impoverishment of society, has a significant impact on the development of the tourism services market in Poland in the period from 2020 to the present.

3 Materials and Methods

The detailed level of research in this paper was oriented towards the analysis and evaluation domestic tourists’ preferences in the tourism sector in Poland. The literature signals a significant influence of the economic situation on tourists’ choices [3] in Poland, and inflation is an important determinant of these changes [14]. Against this background, the study was designed to test the following hypotheses:

H1: The economic situation significantly shapes the current consumer preferences of customers of the domestic tourism market in Poland.

H2: The loss of the value of money over time (inflation) significantly affects consumer choices in the area of the domestic tourism market in Poland.

H3: The increase in prices of tourism and related services determines the need to optimise the costs of tourism ventures at the national level in Poland.

The paper is based on research and critical analysis of source data, including scientific literature, legal regulations and industry reports (e.g., published by the Central Statistical Office), as well as on the results of a diagnostic survey conducted in direct contact with the respondent, the results of which were analysed in depth with a statistical survey using PQstat software.

The research material consisted of papers published in scientific publications, including those indexed in Scopus and Web of Science databases. The papers in question were published in the period 2007–2023, and were searched using keywords such as “tourism services market”, “tourism services market in Poland”, “impact of COVID-19 on tourism services market”, “impact of inflation on tourism services market in Poland”, among others. The review examined the general situation of the tourism services market with reference: the world, and the target country of the research—Poland.

In addition, a survey was conducted between 1 and 3 May 2023 in a coastal town located in northern Poland (Ustka, Słupsk County, Pomeranian Voivodeship). The scope of the survey included a problem strand related to the study of tourists’ choices in relation to the domestic tourism services market in light of the current economic situation. The scope of the questionnaire adopted a narrow layout—six questions, including four closed and two open-ended ones, limiting the research spectrum and delimiting the potential of the future space for scientific research. The survey adopted an open and anonymous nature and the sample was convenient (Polish tourists adults). A total of 287 people took part in the survey, with 273 correctly completed questionnaires accepted for analysis. The questionnaire included questions on the assessment of the impact of the current economic situation on tourists’ choices of tourism ventures at the national level, as well as their scope.

An important aspect of the analysis of the empirical data is the adoption of a method for their treatment. In this regard, the authors performed an in-depth analysis of the results using a statistical test with findings on the degree of correlation of the variables, and applied a logit function model, together with findings on the odds ratio, for the estimation of the variables. The choice of methodology was determined by the characteristics of the data and the hypotheses established. For the purposes of the study outlined, explanatory and explanatory variables were adopted. The explanatory variable was extracted from the area shaping the state of the tourism services market in Poland in the light of current economic conditions, according to the adopted sample and in relation to the results of the diagnostic survey. It was found that the strongest determinant of the state of the tourism sector in Poland is inflation (explanatory variable Y1; dichotomic type of attribution: 0–1). This variable assumes a dichotomous character (0—not present, 1—present). The above determinant creates consumer choices; hence three explanatory variables were established in relation to the survey results: X1—length of stay, X2—quality of stay (type of accommodation—comfort, range of services), X3—other expenses related to the stay (catering, recreation, other) – all “X” are numerical type od attribution in scale 1–3). All explanatory variables shape the level of costs of tourism undertakings, determining tourist traffic and turnover of entities operating in the industry. Against this background, a close relationship emerges between the state of the tourism services market (performance) and consumer preferences, creating interest in the purchase of tourism services and the scale of expenditure for this purpose. The explanatory variables were captured on a scale of 1–3, where 1 indicates a minor influence of the studied factor on the variable, 2 indicates a significant influence and 3 a very significant influence.

The methodological approach adopted for dichotomous and numerical variables was successfully applied by Zastepowski [15], Chomać-Pierzecka [16], among others, based on the logit function notation proposed by Grene [17], or the odds ratio findings approach explained by Stanisz [18]. This dimension of the research was supported by the PQstat software.

The sample of respondents was formed by Polish tourists, staying in a tourist destination during a long weekend in Ustka. The strongest group of respondents was formed by those aged up to 30 years (54.6%), followed by those aged between 31 and 60 years (37.2%) and those aged over 61 years (8.2%). The Pomeranian Voivodeship was represented by 23.7% of the surveyed population, with the remaining 76.3% representing other Polish voivodeships. Respondents’ characteristics were not differentiating variables in this study.

4 Results

Poland's tourist attractions encourage tourist activities. Particularly important in terms of assessing the socio-economic condition is its national dimension, providing, among other things, information on the financial condition of Polish society, which strongly creates this dimension of tourist traffic. Hence, our own research was directed at diagnosing the consumer preferences of Polish tourists staying in a tourist destination during a long weekend in the period 1–3.05.2023 in Ustka.

The findings revealed that:

  • the vast majority of the surveyed population (64%) confirms the influence of the current political and economic situation on domestic tourism travel decisions, of which 23% indicated the limiting influence of inflation on travel decisions to a very significant degree, 19%—to a significant degree, 37% rather did not signal such an influence, while 21% did not confirm such an influence,

  • due to the loss of the value of money over time, of the respondents indicating the influence of the current situation on their travel decisions, 61.14% indicated the necessity to reduce travel expenses—excluding transport and accommodation costs, 26.27% optimised the costs of accommodation, often at the expense of additional services, while 12.57% decided to shorten the length of the trip to ensure the ability to cover the costs of the trip,

  • only 8% of respondents indicated that there was no potential need to modify their travel plans (including, among other things, length of stay, accommodation, other expenses) in the near future, with 38% indicating the absolute necessity to do so in light of inflation, and as many as 54% indicating the current need to analyse this thread when making travel decisions.

According to the above, the length of stay, quality of stay and other expenses related to the stay, were assumed to be tourists’ choices creating the cost of stay, being a determinant of tourism intensity (variables X1–X3), and then these parameters were determined in relation to the influence factor, which inflation was considered to be (variable Y1). The results of the descriptive statistics for the above categories of variables are presented in Table 1.

Table 1 Results from descriptive statistics
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The results of the correlation test of the explanatory variables (X1–X3) and the explanatory variable (Y1) indicate homogeneity. The correlation indications take an additive result, with the strongest correlation score being 0.497 for the Y1–X3 relationship (Y1–X2:0.263; Y1–X1:0.164), indicating low correlation strength (collinearity < 0.5).

The results of the logistic regression for the factor Y1 are presented in Table 2.

Table 2  Logistic regression model for factor Y1
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The unit distribution of the change in the odds ratio is included in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1
A table with graphs for distribution of variables within the Y 1 is to X 1 minus X 3. The graphs are for Y 1 is to X 1, Y 1 is to X 2, and Y 1 is to X 3 respectively for 95% C l and odds ratio. Explanation, Number line from 1 to 25.12 minus logarithmic scale is to OR.

Unit distribution of change in odds ratio

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Inflation has the most significant impact on the level of other residence-related expenditure, including, among others, expenditure on food services, recreation, or health. This relationship—expressed in the variables Y1–X3—obtained the highest degree of correlation, and also reached the level of highest probability of occurrence compared to the other variables, with an OR score of 12.599 odds. The other variables are influenced by inflation to a slightly more limited extent.

5 Discussion and Conclusion

The domestic tourism services sector is an important, long-standing developing area of the Polish economy. An important driving force of its development is the spatial mobility of the population realised at the national level for various purposes and in various forms. Tourist’s preferences, growing out of the real availability of services, are important in this field, shaping demand in this area. Hence, the findings of this paper may inform decision-makers in modelling the marketing strategy of the domestic tourism services market in Poland, with particular emphasis on its domestic dimension, in order to support the development of the market in the light of the observed adverse impact of inflation on purchasing decisions of consumers of tourism services in Poland (domestic dimension). It was confirmed that the loss of the value of money over time (inflation) significantly influences tourists’ choices in the area of the domestic tourism market in Poland, and the increase in prices of tourism and related services determined by the above implies the need to reduce the costs of tourism ventures, which translates into the need to reduce expenditure. Expenditure on consumption going with tourist activities is reduced the most, but also travel time is shortened and alternatives for cheaper stays are sought, which is generally at the expense of additional services offered by the accommodation base (restaurant offer and spa zone). The findings obtained are only appropriate for a sample of people in the course of tourist ventures and therefore may not be transferable to the general population, yet further research could take place to broaden this research on the Polish domestic tourism. The impact of the current political and economic situation in Poland on decisions regarding domestic tourism ventures is clear. The impact of inflation is assuming a restrictive character on tourists’ choices made so far. Plans for tourist’s choices in the near future are not clear. In this regard, the need for ad hoc decision-making is emphasised, with an outcome that is right to the current market situation and the affluence of the Polish tourist's wallet. Branding strategies should be initiated to promote the destination internationally to increase the inbound tourism [19, 20].