Abstract
“Insurance is the contribution of the few to the misfortune of the many” is a simple way to describe what insurance is. But it doesn’t say what the “contribution” should be, to be fair. In this chapter, we return to the fundamentals of pricing and risk sharing, and at the end we mention other models used in insurance (to predict future payments to be provisioned, to create a fraud score, etc.).
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Lecturer in private law, UFR of Law, Le Mans University, member of Thémis-UM and Ceprisca.
- 2.
is the etymological source of “gender,” and not “gene,” based on
from the aorist infinitive of
—I come into being.
- 3.
Denuit and Charpentier (2004) discuss the mathematical formalism that allows such a writing. In particular, the expectation is calculated according to a probability \(\mathbb {P}\) corresponding to the “historical” probability (there is no law of one price in insurance, contrary to the typical approach in market finance, in the sense of Froot et al. (1995). This will be discussed further in Sect. 3.1.1.). Insurance, like econometrics, is formalized in a probabilistic world, perhaps unlike many machine learning algorithms which are derived without a probabilistic model, as discussed in Charpentier et al. (2018).
- 4.
Without discounting, as death is (at an infinite time horizon) certain, the pure premium would be exactly the amount of the capital paid to the beneficiaries.
- 5.
\(\Phi \) is here the distribution function of the centered and reduced normal distribution, \(\mathcal {N}(0,1)\).
- 6.
Formally, property covers a home (physical building) and the belongings in it from all losses such as fire, theft, etc., or covers damage to a car when involved in an accident, including protection from damage/loss caused by other factors such as fire, vandalism, etc. Causality involves coverage if one is being held responsible for someone injuring themselves on his or her property, or if one were to cause any damage to someone else’s property, and coverage if one gets into an accident and causes injuries to someone else or damage to their car.
- 7.
References
Ahima RS, Lazar MA (2013) The health risk of obesity–better metrics imperative. Science 341(6148):856–858
Akerlof GA (1970) The market for “lemons”: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Q J Econ 84(3):488–500
American Academy of Actuaries (2011) Market consistent embedded value. Life Financial Reporting Committee
Arrow KJ (1963) Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care. Am Econ Rev 53:941–973
Artıs M, Ayuso M, Guillen M (1999) Modelling different types of automobile insurance fraud behaviour in the spanish market. Insurance Math Econ 24(1–2):67–81
Artís M, Ayuso M, Guillén M (2002) Detection of automobile insurance fraud with discrete choice models and misclassified claims. J Risk Insurance 69(3):325–340
Bailey RA, Simon LJ (1959) An actuarial note on the credibility of experience of a single private passenger car. Proc Casualty Actuarial Soc XLVI:159
Baker T (2011) Health insurance, risk, and responsibility after the patient protection and affordable care act. University of Pennsylvania Law Review 1577–1622
Baker T, Simon J (2002) Embracing risk: the changing culture of insurance and responsibility. University Chicago Press, Chicago
Ban GY, Keskin NB (2021) Personalized dynamic pricing with machine learning: High-dimensional features and heterogeneous elasticity. Manag Sci 67(9):5549–5568
Belhadji EB, Dionne G, Tarkhani F (2000) A model for the detection of insurance fraud. Geneva papers on risk and insurance issues and practice, pp 517–538
Benjamin B, Michaelson R (1988) Mortality differences between smokers and non-smokers. J Inst Actuaries 115(3):519–525
Bernoulli J (1713) Ars conjectandi: opus posthumum: accedit Tractatus de seriebus infinitis; et Epistola gallice scripta de ludo pilae reticularis. Impensis Thurnisiorum
Bigot R, Cayol A (2020) Le droit des assurances en tableaux. Ellipses
Blanpain N (2018) L’espérance de vie par niveau de vie-méthode et principaux résultats. INSEE Document de Travail F1801
Boonekamp C, Donaldson D (1979) Certain alternatives for price uncertainty. Canad J Econ Revue canadienne d’Economique 12(4):718–728
Boonen TJ, Liu F (2022) Insurance with heterogeneous preferences. J Math Econ 102:102742
Borch K (1962) Application of game theory to some problems in automobile insurance*. ASTIN Bull J IAA 2(2):208–221
Bowles S, Gintis H (2004) The evolution of strong reciprocity: cooperation in heterogeneous populations. Theor Popul Biol 65(1):17–28
Breiman L, Friedman J, Olshen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Taylor & Francis, London
Brockett PL, Xia X, Derrig RA (1998) Using kohonen’s self-organizing feature map to uncover automobile bodily injury claims fraud. J Risk Insurance, 245–274
Buchanan R, Priest C (2006) Deductible. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
Bugbee M, Matthews B, Callanan S, Ewert J, Guven S, Boison L, Liao C (2014) Price optimization overview. Casualty Actuarial Society
Calders T, Žliobaite I (2013) Why unbiased computational processes can lead to discriminative decision procedures. In: Discrimination and privacy in the information society, pp 43–57. Springer, New York
Callahan A (2021) Is bmi a scam. The New York Times May 18th
Cardano G (1564) Liber de ludo aleae. Franco Angeli
Cassedy JH (2013) Demography in early America. Harvard University Press, Harvard
Castelvecchi D (2016) Can we open the black box of ai? Nature News 538(7623):20
Central Bank of Ireland (2021) Review of differential pricing in the private car and home insurance markets. Central Bank of Ireland Publications, Dublin, Ireland
Charpentier A (2014) Computational actuarial science with R. CRC Press, Boca Raton
Charpentier A, Flachaire E, Ly A (2018) Econometrics and machine learning. Economie et Statistique 505(1):147–169
Chassagnon A (1996) Sélection adverse: modèle générique et applications. PhD thesis, Paris, EHESS
Chaufton A (1886) Les assurances, leur passé, leur présent, leur avenir, au point de vue rationnel, technique et pratique, moral, économique et social, financier et administratif, légal, législatif et contractuel, en France et à l’étranger. Chevalier-Marescq
Chetty R, Stepner M, Abraham S, Lin S, Scuderi B, Turner N, Bergeron A, Cutler D (2016) The association between income and life expectancy in the United States, 2001–2014. JAMA 315(16):1750–1766
Corlier F (1998) Segmentation : le point de vue de l’assureur. In: Cousy H, Classens H, Van Schoubroeck C (eds) Compétitivité, éthique et assurance. Academia Bruylant
Cresta J, Laffont J (1982) The value of statistical information in insurance contracts. GREMAQ Working Paper 8212
Crocker KJ, Snow A (2013) The theory of risk classification. In: Loubergé H, Dionne G (eds) Handbook of insurance, pp 281–313. Springer, New York
Dalziel JR, Job RS (1997) Motor vehicle accidents, fatigue and optimism bias in taxi drivers. Accident Analy Prevent 29(4):489–494
Daniels N (1990) Insurability and the hiv epidemic: ethical issues in underwriting. Milbank Q, 497–525
Davenport T (2006) Competing on analytics. Harvard Bus Rev 84:1–10
De Alba E (2004) Bayesian claims reserving. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
De Pril N, Dhaene J (1996) Segmentering in verzekeringen. DTEW Research Report 9648, pp 1–56
De Wit GW, Van Eeghen J (1984) Rate making and society’s sense of fairness. ASTIN Bull J IAA 14(2):151–163
De Witt J (1671) Value of life annuities in proportion to redeemable annuities. Originally in Dutch Translated in Hendriks (1853), pp 232–49
Demakakos P, Biddulph JP, Bobak M, Marmot MG (2016) Wealth and mortality at older ages: a prospective cohort study. J Epidemiol Community Health 70(4):346–353
Denuit M, Charpentier A (2004) Mathématiques de l’assurance non-vie: Tome I Principes fondamentaux de théorie du risque. Economica. Paris, France
Denuit M, Charpentier A (2005) Mathématiques de l’assurance non-vie: Tome II Tarification et provisionnement. Economica. Paris, France
Denuit M, Maréchal X, Pitrebois S, Walhin JF (2007) Actuarial modelling of claim counts: Risk classification, credibility and bonus-malus systems. Wiley, New York
Derrig RA, Ostaszewski KM (1995) Fuzzy techniques of pattern recognition in risk and claim classification. J Risk Insurance, 447–482
Derrig RA, Weisberg HI (1998) Aib pip claim screening experiment final report. understanding and improving the claim investigation process. AIB Filing on Fraudulent Claims Payment
Dingman H (1927) Insurability, prognosis and selection. The spectator company
Dionne G (2000) Handbook of insurance. Springer, New York
Dionne G (2013) Contributions to insurance economics. Springer, New York
Dionne G, Harrington SE (1992) An introduction to insurance economics. Springer, New York
Dublin L (1925) Report of the joint committee on mortality of the association of life insurance medical directors. The Actuarial Society of America
Duggan JE, Gillingham R, Greenlees JS (2008) Mortality and lifetime income: evidence from us social security records. IMF Staff Papers 55(4):566–594
Duncan A, McPhail M (2013) Price optimization for the us market. techniques and implementation strategies.”. In: Ratemaking and Product Management Seminar
Eisen R, Eckles DL (2011) Insurance economics. Springer, New York
Ewald F (1986) Histoire de l’Etat providence: les origines de la solidarité. Grasset
Feiring E (2009) reassessing insurers’ access to genetic information: genetic privacy, ignorance, and injustice. Bioethics 23(5):300–310
Feller W (1957) An introduction to probability theory and its applications. Wiley, New York
Finkelstein EA, Brown DS, Wrage LA, Allaire BT, Hoerger TJ (2010) Individual and aggregate years-of-life-lost associated with overweight and obesity. Obesity 18(2):333–339
Fontaine KR, Redden DT, Wang C, Westfall AO, Allison DB (2003) Years of life lost due to obesity. J Am Med Assoc 289(2):187–193
Frezal S, Barry L (2019) Fairness in uncertainty: Some limits and misinterpretations of actuarial fairness. J Bus Ethics 167(1):127–136
Froot KA, Kim M, Rogoff KS (1995) The law of one price over 700 years. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 5132
Gandy OH (2016) Coming to terms with chance: Engaging rational discrimination and cumulative disadvantage, Routledge
Gintis H (2000) Strong reciprocity and human sociality. J Theor Biol 206(2):169–179
Gollier C (2002) La solidarité sous l’angle économique. Revue Générale du Droit des Assurances, pp 824–830
Gompertz B (1825) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philos Trans Roy Soc Lond 115:513–583
Gompertz B (1833) On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. in a letter to francis baily, esq. frs &c. by benjamin gompertz, esq. fr s. Philos Trans Roy Soc Lond 2:252–253
Gouriéroux C (1999) The econometrics of risk classification in insurance. Geneva Papers Risk Insurance Theory 24(2):119–137
Gourieroux C (1999) Statistique de l’assurance. Economica
Gourieroux C, Jasiak J (2007) The econometrics of individual risk. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Guelman L, Guillén M, Pérez-Marín AM (2012) Random forests for uplift modeling: an insurance customer retention case. In: International conference on modeling and simulation in engineering, economics and management, pp 123–133. Springer, New York
Guillen M (2006) Fraud in insurance. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
Guillen M, Ayuso M (2008) Fraud in insurance. Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment 2
Guven S, McPhail M (2013) Beyond the cost model: Understanding price elasticity and its applications. In: Casualty actuarial society E-forum, Spring 2013, Citeseer
He Y, Xiong Y, Tsai Y (2020) Machine learning based approaches to predict customer churn for an insurance company. In: 2020 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS), pp 1–6. IEEE
Heras AJ, Pradier PC, Teira D (2020) What was fair in actuarial fairness? Hist Human Sci 33(2):91–114
Hesselager O, Verrall R (2006) Reserving in non-life insurance. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
Hillier R (2022) The legal challenges of insuring against a pandemic. In: Pandemics: insurance and social protection, pp 267–286. Springer, Cham
Hiltzik M (2013) Yes, men should pay for pregnancy coverage and here’s why. Los Angeles Times November 1st
Hoffman FL (1931) Cancer and smoking habits. Ann Surg 93(1):50
Homans S, Phillips GW (1868) Tontine dividend life assurance policies. Equitable Life Assurance Society of the United States
Houston R (1992) Mortality in early modern scotland: the life expectancy of advocates. Continuity Change 7(1):47–69
Ingold D, Soper S (2016) Amazon doesn’t consider the race of its customers. should it? Bloomberg April 21st
Jerry RH (2023) Understanding parametric insurance: A potential tool to help manage pandemic risk. In: Covid-19 and insurance, pp 17–62. Springer, New York
Johnston L (1945) Effects of tobacco smoking on health. British Med J 2(4411):98
Keys A, Fidanza F, Karvonen MJ, Kimura N, Taylor HL (1972) Indices of relative weight and obesity. J Chronic Dis 25(6–7):329–343
Kimball SL (1979) Reverse sex discrimination: Manhart. Am Bar Foundation Res J 4(1):83–139
Kitagawa EM, Hauser PM (1973) Differential mortality in the united states. In: Differential mortality in the United States. Harvard University Press, Harvard
Kitchin R (2017) Thinking critically about and researching algorithms. Inf Commun Soc 20(1):14–29
Kohlleppel L (1983) Multidimensional market signalling. Institut für Gesellschafts und Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftstheoretische Abteilung
Kolmogorov A (1933) Grundbegriffe der wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung
Kotchen TA (2011) Historical trends and milestones in hypertension research: a model of the process of translational research. Hypertension 58(4):522–538
Krikler S, Dolberger D, Eckel J (2004) Method and tools for insurance price and revenue optimisation. J Financ Serv Market 9(1):68–79
Laffont JJ, Martimort D (2002) The theory of incentives: the principal-agent model, pp 273–306. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Landes X (2015) How fair is actuarial fairness? J Bus Ethics 128(3):519–533
Lasry JM (2015) La rencontre choc de l’assurance et du big data. Risques 103:19–24
Lebesgue H (1918) Remarques sur les théories de la mesure et de l’intégration. Ann scientifiques de l’École Normale Supérieure 35:191–250
Lee RD, Carter LR (1992) Modeling and forecasting us mortality. J Am Stat Assoc 87(419):659–671
Lemaire J, Park SC, Wang KC (2016) The use of annual mileage as a rating variable. ASTIN Bull J IAA 46(1):39–69
Levantesi S, Pizzorusso V (2019) Application of machine learning to mortality modeling and forecasting. Risks 7(1):26
Löffler M, Münstermann B, Schumacher T, Mokwa C, Behm S (2016) Insurers need to plug into the internet of things–or risk falling behind. European Insurance
Maynard A (1979) Pricing, insurance and the national health service. J Soc Pol 8(2):157–176
Meilijson I (2006) Risk aversion. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
Meyers G, Van Hoyweghen I (2018) Enacting actuarial fairness in insurance: From fair discrimination to behaviour-based fairness. Sci Culture 27(4):413–438
Michelbacher G (1926) ‘moral hazard’ in the field of casualty insurance. Proc Casualty Actuar Soc 13(27):448–471
Miller G, Gerstein DR (1983) The life expectancy of nonsmoking men and women. Public Health Rep 98(4):343
Miller T (2015b) Price optimization. Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Insurance Department August 25
Milne J (1815) A Treatise on the Valuation of Annuities and Assurances on Lives and Survivorships: On the Construction of Tables of Mortality and on the Probabilities and Expectations of Life, vol 2. Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme, and Brown
Mittra J (2007) Predictive genetic information and access to life assurance: The poverty of ‘genetic exceptionalism’. BioSocieties 2(3):349–373
Monnet J (2017) Discrimination et assurance. Journal de Droit de la Santé et de l’Assurance Maladie 16:13–19
Morel P, Stalk G, Stanger P, Wetenhall P (2003) Pricing myopia. The Boston Consulting Group Perspectives
Nathan EB (1925) Analysed mortality: the english life no. 8a tables. Trans Faculty Actuaries 10:45–124
Noguéro D (2010) Sélection des risques. discrimination, assurance et protection des personnes vulnérables. Revue générale du droit des assurances 3:633–663
Pasquale F (2015) The black box society: the secret algorithms that control money and information. Harvard University Press, Harvard
Perla F, Richman R, Scognamiglio S, Wüthrich MV (2021) Time-series forecasting of mortality rates using deep learning. Scandinavian Actuarial J 2021(7):572–598
Petauton P (1998) L’opération d’assurance : définitions et principes. In: Ewald F, Lorenzi JH (eds) Encyclopédie de l’assurance, Economica
Picard P (2003) Les frontières de l’assurabilité. Risques 54:65–66
Pichard M (2006) Les droits à: étude de législation française. Economica
Pope DG, Sydnor JR (2011) Implementing anti-discrimination policies in statistical profiling models. Am Econ J Econ Policy 3(3):206–31
Porter TM (2020) Trust in numbers. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Pradier PC (2011) (petite) histoire de la discrimination (dans les assurances). Risques 87:51–57
Pradier PC (2012) Les bénéfices terrestres de la charité. les rentes viagères des hôpitaux parisiens, 1660–1690. Histoire Mesure 26(XXVI-2):31–76
Ransom RL, Sutch R (1987) Tontine insurance and the armstrong investigation: a case of stifled innovation, 1868–1905. J Econ Hist 47(2):379–390
Riley JG (1975) Competitive signalling. J Econ Theory 10(2):174–186
Ross SM (1972) Introduction to probability models. Academic Press, Cambridge, MA
Royal A, Walls M (2019) Flood risk perceptions and insurance choice: Do decisions in the floodplain reflect overoptimism? Risk Anal 39(5):1088–1104
Rubinstein A (2012) Economic fables. Open Book Publishers, Cambridge
Spedicato GA, Dutang C, Petrini L (2018) Machine learning methods to perform pricing optimization. a comparison with standard glms. Variance 12(1):69–89
Spence M (1974) Competitive and optimal responses to signals: An analysis of efficiency and distribution. J Econ Theory 7(3):296–332
Spence M (1976) Informational aspects of market structure: An introduction. Q J Econ, 591–597
Steensma C, Loukine L, Orpana H, Lo E, Choi B, Waters C, Martel S (2013) Comparing life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy by body mass index category in adult canadians: a descriptive study. Populat Health Metrics 11(1):1–12
Stenholm S, Head J, Aalto V, Kivimäki M, Kawachi I, Zins M, Goldberg M, Platts LG, Zaninotto P, Hanson LM, et al. (2017) Body mass index as a predictor of healthy and disease-free life expectancy between ages 50 and 75: a multicohort study. Int J Obesity 41(5):769–775
Stone DA (1993) The struggle for the soul of health insurance. J Health Polit Policy Law 18(2):287–317
Struyck N (1740) Inleiding tot de algemeene geographie. Tirion 1740:231
Struyck N (1912) Les oeuvres de Nicolas Struyck (1687–1769): qui se rapportent au calcul des chances, à la statistique général, à la statistique des décès et aux rentes viagèter. Société générale néerlandaise d’assurances sur la vie et de rentes viagères
Sutton W (1874) On the method used by Dr. Price in the construction of the northampton mortality table. J Inst Actuaries 18(2):107–122
Taylor S (2015) Price optimization ban. Government of the District of Columbia, Department of Insurance August 25
Thomas G (2012) Non-risk price discrimination in insurance: market outcomes and public policy. Geneva Papers Risk Insurance Issues Pract 37:27–46
Thomas G (2017) Loss coverage: Why insurance works better with some adverse selection. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Upton G, Cook I (2014) A dictionary of statistics 3e. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Viaene S, Dedene G, Derrig RA (2005) Auto claim fraud detection using Bayesian learning neural networks. Expert Syst Appl 29(3):653–666
Viswanathan KS (2006) Demutualization. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science
Volkmer S (2015) Notice regarding unfair discrimination in rating: optimization. State of California, Department of Insurance February 18
Von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1953) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Waldron H (2013) Mortality differentials by lifetime earnings decile: Implications for evaluations of proposed social security law changes. Social Secur Bull 73:1
Wilkie D (1997) Mutuality and solidarity: assessing risks and sharing losses. Philos Trans Roy Soc Lond B Biol Sci 352(1357):1039–1044
Wing-Heir L (2015) Price optimization in ratemaking. State of Alaska, Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development Bulletin B 15–12
Winter RA (2000) Optimal insurance under moral hazard. Handbook of insurance, pp 155–183
Wolthuis H (2004) Heterogeneity. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science, pp 819–821
Wüthrich MV, Merz M (2008) Stochastic claims reserving methods in insurance. Wiley, New York
Yang TC, Chen VYJ, Shoff C, Matthews SA (2012) Using quantile regression to examine the effects of inequality across the mortality distribution in the us counties. Soc Sci Med 74(12):1900–1910
Zelizer VAR (2018) Morals and markets. Columbia University Press, New York
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Charpentier, A. (2024). Fundamentals of Actuarial Pricing. In: Insurance, Biases, Discrimination and Fairness. Springer Actuarial. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49783-4_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49783-4_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-49782-7
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-49783-4
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)