Abstract
This study presents a novel approach to project status prediction in software engineering, based on unobservable states of decision-making processes, utilizing Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). By establishing HMM structures and leveraging the Rational Decision Making model (RDM), we encoded underlying project conditions; observed project data from a software engineering organization were utilized to estimate model parameters via the Baum-Welch algorithm. The developed HMMs, four project-specific models, were subsequently tested with empirical data, demonstrating their predictive potential. However, a generalized, aggregated model did not show any sufficient accuracy. Model development and experiments were made in Python. Our approach presents preliminary work and a pathway for understanding and forecasting project dynamics in software development environments.
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Salin, H. (2024). A Stochastic Approach Based on Rational Decision-Making for Analyzing Software Engineering Project Status. In: Kadgien, R., Jedlitschka, A., Janes, A., Lenarduzzi, V., Li, X. (eds) Product-Focused Software Process Improvement. PROFES 2023. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 14483. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-49266-2_12
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