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Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making)

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Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making

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Abstract

Explains why the identification of the sources of uncertainty is important for progress (e.g., it gives us targets to address and points to several limits of understanding to acknowledge). Explains and argues for the set of sources presented. These sources are divided into exogenous and endogenous groupings—those residing (mainly) outside the decision-maker versus those residing (mainly) with the decision-maker.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Note that one source can affect multiple decision steps; for example, if some cause impedes the identification of choices, then it also impedes the identification of outcomes under those missing choices and more.

  2. 2.

    Note that this implies those possible causes are known at the ‘highest’ level of analysis where a final diagnosis of treatability can be made; we are not considering going down the rabbit holes of causes of causes of causes (e.g., if the cause is a lack of expertise, that can be treated; the reason for that lack of expertise is not needed to treat its current effect).

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  1. University of Southern Maine, Portland, ME, USA

    Richard J. Arend

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Arend, R.J. (2024). Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making). In: Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-48553-4_4

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