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Predicting Rainfall Onset and Cessation Within the West African Sahel Region Using Echo State Network

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Recent Advancements from Aquifers to Skies in Hydrogeology, Geoecology, and Atmospheric Sciences (MedGU 2022)

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Abstract

Rainfall onset and cessation are essential factors for the agrarian society in the West African Sahel region. This information determines crops to plant, helps project crop yields, and reduces loss due to climatic factors. Rainfall onset has also been associated with disease outbreaks; adequate knowledge will help in epidemiology and health management schemes. Therefore, predicting the onset will be necessary for the economy of countries in the Sahel region. Historical daily rainfall data from 1901 to 2000 for eight locations within the Sahel region were obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) at a 0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution. Rainfall onset and cessation were determined using the Liebmann method based on long-term precipitation in the location of interest. Onset and cessation were predicted using a machine learning approach—Echo State Network. The root mean square error for rainfall onset was 15–24 days, while a range of 9–19 days was obtained for rainfall cessation. Results obtained in this study suggest that it is possible to effectively predict rainfall onset and cessation within the Sahel region. The predictions will enable farmers and government agencies to address agricultural, health, and environmental issues associated with the onset and cessation of rainfall in the region.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada

    Adeyemi Olusola

  2. Department of Physics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Samuel Ogunjo

  3. West Africa Science Service Centre On Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Federal University of Technology Akure, Gaga, 340001, Ondo State, Nigeria

    Christiana Olusegun

  4. Faculty of Physics, Institute of Geophysics, University of Warsaw, 00-927, Warsaw, Poland

    Christiana Olusegun

Authors
  1. Adeyemi Olusola
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  2. Samuel Ogunjo
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  3. Christiana Olusegun
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Adeyemi Olusola .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Higher National School of Forests, Khenchela, Algeria

    Haroun Chenchouni

  2. Shandong University, Jinan, China

    Zhihua Zhang

  3. Western Himalayan Regional Centre, National Institute of Hydrology, Jammu, India

    Deepak Singh Bisht

  4. School of Science and Technology, Geology division, University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy

    Matteo Gentilucci

  5. Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman

    Mingjie Chen

  6. Polytechnic of Porto, School of Engineering (ISEP), Porto, Portugal

    Helder I. Chaminé

  7. Department of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy

    Maurizio Barbieri

  8. Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

    Mahesh Kumar Jat

  9. University of Granada, Granada, Spain

    Jesús Rodrigo-Comino

  10. National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece

    Dionysia Panagoulia

  11. ENIS, University of Sfax, SFax, Tunisia

    Amjad Kallel

  12. Department of Geology, Institute of Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Arkoprovo Biswas

  13. Bingol University, Bingöl, Türkiye

    Veysel Turan

  14. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa

    Jasper Knight

  15. Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye

    Attila Çiner

  16. GeoBioTec - University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal

    Carla Candeias

  17. Kütahya Dumlupınar University, Kütahya, Türkiye

    Zeynal Abiddin Ergüler

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Olusola, A., Ogunjo, S., Olusegun, C. (2024). Predicting Rainfall Onset and Cessation Within the West African Sahel Region Using Echo State Network. In: Chenchouni, H., et al. Recent Advancements from Aquifers to Skies in Hydrogeology, Geoecology, and Atmospheric Sciences. MedGU 2022. Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-47079-0_59

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