Abstract
This chapter analyzes the available information regarding the main drivers of global change operating in Patagonia, including climate change and its impact on biodiversity, the introduction of exotic species, change in land use and cover, and some emerging drivers of global change such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and the increase in connectivity of human populations associated with the construction and expansion of the Austral Highway, and the bridge over the Chacao Channel in Chiloé. We emphasize the complexities associated with global change due to the synergies of the different global change drivers in Patagonia, such as the introduction of exotic species, climate, and the increased likelihood of fires, and between HABs, climate, and nutrient inputs. Global climate models for Patagonia project that by 2070, and assuming a scenario of moderate change in greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP 4.5), average temperature will increase from 0, 9 to 1.4 °C. Similarly, precipitation is projected to decrease between 5.5 and 116 mm on average; the highest precipitation reduction is 221 mm, with a modal reduction of 21 mm. In some areas, however, precipitation is projected to increase up to 77 mm. Although Patagonian ecosystems have been resilient and able to adapt to Holocene climate modifications, evidence suggests large and abrupt changes associated with European colonization in the twentieth century that go hand in hand with the increase in the incidence of fires, habitat loss and invasion of exotic species. In particular, an increase in exotic species plantations—together with a drier and warmer climate and the abundance of exotic herbivores that affect the regeneration of native species—can have far-reaching consequences for Patagonian ecosystems. This chapter concludes with a series of recommendations that address both the knowledge gaps identified and the impacts of global change in the area. Some of these include the regulation of productive activities (tourism and aquaculture), periodic diagnostics of the state of Patagonian ecosystems and the services they provide, and improved knowledge of ecosystem functioning, particularly climate change and the synergic action of different global change drivers on their resilience.
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1 Introduction
Global change refers to the multiple impacts of our species’ way of life on the biosphere. In order to study these impacts—which alter the Earth system as a whole—researchers must identify different global change drivers or processes. The modifications experienced by these drivers and processes help us evaluate the impacts, including land use changes, alteration of biogeochemical cycles, overexploitation of biotic and abiotic resources, introduction and removal of species, and climate change [174, 175]. More recently, the scale of the impact and its acceleration in the biosphere [157] has led to the concept of “planetary boundaries,” referring to the space where human action is safe in that it does not compromise the sustainability of the biosphere,if this space is transgressed, however, abrupt changes associated with biosphere thresholds could be foreseen (e.g., [18, 87]) Faced with what could be imminent changes in the functioning of natural systems and the services they provide to humans or “Nature Contributions to People” (NCP) [46], undisturbed ecosystems need to be protected, and to improve understanding of the socioecological dynamics that occur within them, since their modification could result in irreversible changes.
Patagonia is one of the most extensive and pristine biomes in the Americas, along with the Amazon and the Pacific Northwest [74]. It plays an important role in the planet due to the relevance of its NCPs in aspects associated with the provision of freshwater, food, and recreation, among others [46, 77, 98]. Fortunately, an important portion of Chilean Patagonia’s ecosystems are protected in national parks and reserves that cover more than 50% of the area between latitudes 41° and 56° S. However, despite high protection and its remote location, the region is still subject to threats associated with several global change drivers, including climate change, sustained increase of anthropogenic pressures associated with tourism, farming, and livestock, expansion of invasive exotic species, increased connectivity through growth in transportation infrastructure [74, 95, 140], and especially aquaculture-related impacts [31, 32, 61]. Climate change may have severe impacts on the region, especially for water supply due to glacial melting [76, 133], with serious consequences for the distribution of ecosystems such as forests and wetlands. Considerable impacts are also expected on the hydrological cycle [129] and the ecosystems associated with fjords, canals, and coastal archipelagos. A recent study [134] indicates that the loss of terrestrial water storage is occurring at an alarming rate in Patagonia as a result of glacial melting.
The following sections provide an overview of the main global change drivers in Chilean Patagonia (see also [124] for the Argentinean case), including: (i) climate change scenarios for the region from now until the end of the century, and the impact on species and ecosystems, (ii) the impact of invasive alien species on the region's biodiversity; (iii) current status and projections of land use changes; (iv) ultraviolet (UV) radiation; and (v) emerging global changes such as harmful algal blooms (HABs) and anthropogenic pressures associated with human population growth and the impact of tourism.
2 Scope and Purpose
This chapter discusses the causes and current and future impacts of global change on Patagonia, based on an analysis of the state of knowledge regarding the main global change drivers in the area.
3 Methods
The available scientific literature was reviewed on the main global change drivers in Chilean Patagonia, defined as the region located between Reloncaví Sound and the Diego Ramirez Islands (41° 42' S, 73° 02' W; 56° 29' S, 68° 44' W). Global change drivers include climate change and its impacts on biodiversity, introduced exotic species, land use and land cover changes, and other emerging global change drivers, namely HABs and increased connectivity associated with the construction and expansion of the southern highway and the bridge over the Chacao Channel on Chiloé Island. The literature review also included other global change drivers prevailing in Patagonia, including the impact of high UV radiation on ecosystems and the overexploitation of natural resources such as the removal of Sphagnum from peatlands.
Modeling of present and future climate was conducted with climate, temperature, and precipitation data, both for current conditions and future climate change scenarios, according to the fourth IPCC Report [76]. The climate baseline for current conditions comes from the repository published by Pliscoff et al. [122], of bioclimatic surfaces with a 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution representing a 50-year period (1950–2000) for southern South America. Following the recommendations of Fajardo et al. [48], four general circulation models (GCMs) were considered that represent the variability in the predictions of future climate (to 2070), plus the average ensemble of 30 models available in the “GCM CompareR” application Fajardo et al. [48], assuming a scenario of moderate greenhouse gas concentration changes (RCP 4.5) at a resolution of 10 min.
Land use layers from 1917 to 2016, with projections to 2100 [70], were used to study the evolution of land use changes over time. The three most common land uses in Chilean Patagonia were identified using these layers, which cover 75.2% or more of the area studied through the historical period. These three land uses are livestock (managed pasture and livestock), pristine land cover (primary forests and other primary vegetation types), and regenerating ecosystems (regenerating forest and other vegetation types).
4 Climate Change in Chilean Patagonia
Current climatic and vegetation patterns help understand the consequences of global change, and climate change in Patagonia in particular. The average annual mean temperature is 5.9 °C, ranging from −4.5 to 12 °C. Temperatures are relatively low and show fairly stable average values in the region, except for higher altitude areas around the northern and southern ice fields (Fig. 1).
Spatial distribution of mean annual temperature (top) and mean annual precipitation (bottom) in the Patagonian region. For each variable, to the left is the map with the current distribution of the variable, while to the right are the projections of the global climate models evaluated, and temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) changes related to the current condition for the four models selected and the 30-model ensemble or average
Precipitation presents a gradient from west to east, with extremes ranging from 6,288 mm per year to 214 mm per year. Chilean Patagonia has mostly a humid climate, as shown by annual precipitation rates (Fig. 1) [92, 93]. Rainfall is unevenly distributed in space, its distribution has a positive bias verified by the fact that the mean is 1,653 mm per year, higher than the median (1,495 mm per year), which in turn is higher than the mode (1,072 mm per year). The most abundant vegetation formations in the region are associated with humid environments; peatlands, with 48,167 (20%) [96], followed by evergreen forests with 45,336 (18%), and deciduous forests with 35,342 (14%), steppes and grasslands are fourth, with 24,425 (9.7%).
The future climate projection results with the four selected models indicate that annual mean temperatures could increase from 0.9 °C to 1.4 °C on average (Table 1). All but two models project a decrease in precipitation. Precipitation could decrease between 5.5 and 116 mm on average in the four models (Table 1). The maximum drop in precipitation points to a 221 mm decline, with a reduction mode of 21 mm and a maximum increase of 77 mm. Precipitation increases in the southern sector of Chilean Patagonia both in the models and in the ensemble, including the entire island of Tierra del Fuego, and decreases in the northern zone or temperate forests of the Chilean Patagonia region.
The variability among models is not consistent in the different areas of Patagonia (Fig. 2). The fjords and channels area and the southern tip of Chilean Patagonia show less variation in their predictions compared to the central part and the region as a whole (Fig. 2). When changes are broken down based on vegetation formations, high altitude grassland and deciduous forest emerge as the two formations with the greatest variation in terms of temperature predictions, while peatlands and evergreen shrublands show the greatest consensus in terms of future changes in the four models.
Vegetation formations present in Chilean Patagonia according to Luebert and Pliscoff [93]. Standard deviation of the projected difference in temperature (top) and variation coefficient in projected rainfall for the 30 models (bottom) of the global circulation in Patagonia (bottom)
5 Impact of Exotic Species on Chilean Patagonia
Biological invasions are a major global change driver [175]. They may produce major changes in ecosystems that receive exotic species, and are often associated with biodiversity loss (e.g. [142, 176]), economic problems (e.g. [118]), and alterations in biogeochemical cycles [8, 15, 43]. However, the range of their impacts is so wide that they are generally uncertain, difficult to assess, occur with delayed effect, and are often sustained over time [151].
Chilean Patagonia is no exception in terms of species invasion. Terrestrial ecosystems have been invaded by species such as beaver and mink, with significant impacts. The same is true for marine ecosystems, specifically with the introduction of exotic salmonid species, as well as green crabs in Argentine Patagonia [37, 68, 101, 131, 173]. The main disturbance in river ecosystems has been the invasion of salmonids, with impacts on the aquatic biota both in Chile and Argentina. Additional impacts include alterations to the trophic webs, nutrient flow, and abundance of native vertebrate species [62]. In the past decade, Patagonian river ecosystems have been modified following the invasion of a diatom commonly known as Didymo (Didymosphenia geminata), with major ecosystem changes [130]. New exotic species are likely to continue invading in the short- and medium-term, while others will become invasive and increase their ranges in association with growing human population, tourism, commerce, land use, and climate changes, hence the relevance of assessing the current state of species invasions in Patagonian ecosystems. Table 2 summarizes invasive species most studied in the region, their ranges, and impacts.
Generally, knowledge of invasive species is concentrated in terrestrial vertebrates and plants. Little is known about terrestrial or marine invertebrates in the region. The synergistic effects of invasive species and other global change drivers (e.g. climate change) and between different exotic species constitute another knowledge gap. It is of great importance to measure the joint effects of all these species in river basins or landscapes, moving towards an integrative and ecosystem view.
An example of this synergic action is the way in which the North American beaver facilitates the spread of several invasive herbaceous species [100, 177]. There is also evidence that beaver habitat modifications make these habitats more prone to muskrats, which in turn can provide up to 50% of the minks’ diet in environments far from marine coasts [39]. Minks have major impacts on native species and also encourage the dispersal of Didymo [91].
6 Land Use Changes
Climate change could act on its own to generate modification of Chile's Patagonian biomes. However, its impact on biodiversity depends on both climate forcing and human-generated biodiversity stress and degradation. Over 60% of the Chilean Patagonian territory is currently considered natural land use (i.e. pristine or regenerating). Cattle ranching is the land use with the greatest impact, currently affecting 13% of the forest biome and 23% of the steppe biome.
Figure 3 shows how the area of pristine land cover has been shrinking over the years and is being replaced by regenerating land in the region’s northeastern sector and by livestock land in Tierra del Fuego and Brunswick Peninsula. Future projections predict an increase in livestock land use to a maximum of 15.5% of the total area, decreasing to 8.3% by 2100. By 2100 (Fig. 3), 64.4% of the land is projected to have natural use (pristine or regenerating), similar to the current 63.1%. Despite this, most of this natural land cover will be in regeneration, whereas pristine land cover dominates at present.
Share of land grazed by livestock, pristine and regenerating land (top panel) in Chilean Patagonia. Projected land use change until 2100 for two emission scenarios. The natural land use category groups pristine and regenerating land uses (bottom panel)
The greatest conservation challenges in Patagonia will be in steppes and grasslands [123]. This is due to the following three factors: they are one of the least represented environments in the country's protected area system [121], their relevance for the movement of species in response to climate changes [65], and pressures to change land use from pristine conditions to cattle ranching. Given these soils’ large carbon sequestration capacities, potential land use changes in steppes and grasslands can have serious consequences.
7 Ultraviolet Radiation
Since the discovery of a reduction in atmospheric ozone concentration over Antarctica there has been strong interest in the scientific community to measure the variability of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and its impacts. Elevated UVR in Chilean Patagonia is a relevant global change driver for which there is abundant evidence in some taxonomic groups, for example fish [3]. However, little is known about its impacts on ecosystems, [17, 71, 172]. UV effects are known to have important impacts on microorganisms that form the basis of trophic webs in terrestrial and marine ecosystems. They lead to stress conditions resulting from the photooxidation of compounds associated with the generation of reactive oxygen species [51], increased persistence cost for zooplankton species such as Daphnia facing predation by native and introduced species (e.g. [41]), impacts on successional processes of intertidal algal species [35], and impacts on the microbial loop in the ocean with potential future effects on the biological or carbon pump [44]. Better understanding of UV impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems in Chilean Patagonia and their interaction with other global change drivers such as acidification and predation by introduced species are important knowledge gaps that need to be addressed in the near future.
8 Emerging Global Changes
Several impacts, such as Harmful Algal Blooms (or HABs), have emerged in the region as a consequence of synergistic effects among the different global change drivers. This is also the case of human landscape modifications, such as the extension of the Carretera Austral or Austral Highway and the bridge over the Chacao Channel to Chiloé Island—that can trigger major socioenvironmental transformations. All of this is associated with the introduction of new stakeholders into the territory’s social configuration. These changes result from the pursuit of new territorial imaginaries that are transforming the environment, associated with a model of occupation linked to real estate development and tourist centers [69].
However, the most serious environmental issues have been associated with the latent threat of large-scale hydroelectric development, which has sparked opposition to projects to dam rivers, and conflict between different discourses about the Chilean Patagonia [136, 137, 163, 164]. Aquaculture has also driven important transformations. While cattle ranching and associated land clearing have been historically the main sources of territorial reconfiguration, the expansion of aquaculture and other developments in coastal waters has meant the expansion of territorial impacts on other ecosystems [24, 170], with effects on both natural and social environments, as it disrupts the ecological dynamics of natural ecosystems and social practices in Patagonia’s coastal areas [141].
Ice flow of the San Rafael Glacier (Northern Ice Fields), Aysén Region. Photograph by María Paz Acuña
8.1 Austral Highway and Chiloé Bridge
The Austral Highway was planned in the 1960s and built in the 1980s. Its aim was to connect Chile’s Patagonian territory with a longitudinal road that would overcome the limits of maritime transport and reduce the geographic isolation for a portion of the country’s far southern area [12]. Its impacts were apparent from the moment of construction, as it traversed areas lacking adequate infrastructure. Therefore, the layout and irruption of a new logic of land use, since in many cases the road crosses areas without settlements or simply creates them, for example the case of Villa Lucía and of Hualaihué [111]. The project’s main goal was to connect Patagonia with the rest of the country as well as with urban centers in the region, justified by higher population growth in towns and cities such as Coyhaique [16]. The old maritime traffic through Chiloé´s inland sea and the cabotage through the channels was replaced by an amphibious route that meant adapting to new means of transportation, as well as new ways of understanding and experiencing Patagonian space [139].
The Austral Highway brought capital flow and people that had not existed in the area, and thus an increase in the intensity of occupation. This had an impact on human and non-human communities (for instance, the dissemination of exotic species), especially due to the emergence or increase in extractive activities including aquaculture and forestry, and services such as tourism. The flow of labor increased the fragmentation of the territory and intensified changes in land ownership structures [58]. It is significant that these two main activities produced tension that still exists in the area after the construction of the highway.
On one side there is a developmentalist view that promotes the connection of this “terrestrial island” with the rest of the country, and the potential exploitation of its resources and economic development. On the other side is the idea of conservation and enhancement of its condition as a pristine territory, whose greatest value is in its landscapes and unique natural qualities. All of this has resulted in pressure on its resources, with higher pollution levels and spatial fragmentation due to population growth and economic activities. Finally, tourism and conservation development have increased land values, leading to real estate speculation and the expulsion of traditional groups.
The construction of the bridge over the Chacao Channel will also increase traffic in Chilean Patagonia, especially in the northern zone, as it will become a complementary route to the Austral Highway and provide an overland route to the southernmost areas. Its construction, currently underway, will not only attract greater vehicle flow, but will also support the functional expansion of the Puerto Montt-Puerto Varas axis, with its well-known dysfunctional consequences regarding the peri-urban zones of metropolitan areas [2, 126]. It will also further intensify growth of the salmon industry by reducing logistical costs, increasing land values (agriculture-tourism) and thus deepening ongoing trends in the island in terms of land ownership structure with a consequent impact on the social reproduction of traditional local groups in rural areas. Territorial transformations in urban spaces are also apparent in the monoculture of marine resources which regulate human-nature relations on the island of Chiloé [21, 138].
8.2 Harmful Algal Blooms
Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) is the term coined by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission to describe any microalga bloom, regardless of its concentration, perceived as harmful due to its socioeconomic impacts (damage to public health, coastal goods, and services). This socioeconomic definition includes blooms of various microalga species, including: (i) toxin-producing microalgae that accumulate through food webs (including emerging toxin producers); (ii) fish-killing microalgae (fish-killers); (iii) high-biomass bloom-forming microalgae (high-biomass HAB, HB-HAB), which although non-toxic, alter the environments’ physicochemical conditions; (iv) cyanobacteria [56], (v) harmful benthic microalgal blooms (benthic HABs, [23]). The main natural threat to bivalve farms and public health in Chilean Patagonia are HABs of toxin-producing species. Some of these phytotoxins are among the most potent bioactive compounds [47]. Filter-feeding bivalves accumulate toxins from plankton and when levels unfit for consumption (regulatory level) are reached, health and fishery authorities establish management measures (i.e. extraction bans) with considerable negative impacts on aquaculture and the exploitation of natural bivalve banks. In extreme cases, unregulated consumption of toxic bivalves has caused numerous human deaths [60].
An increase in toxic events has been observed globally over the past three decades. These have been partly associated with a progressive increase in the exploitation of coastal resources (aquaculture and tourism) and the exponential growth of monitoring programs (Hallegraeff, 1993) [64]. In addition to increased monitoring, there is growing evidence pointing to higher growth and dispersal of microalgae due to anthropogenic factors [9, 10]. among which nutrient enrichment of the water column (eutrophication) and sustained alterations in the temperature and precipitation regime (climate change) have become increasingly relevant [54, 55, 66].
Given the growing geographical extent, duration, and intensity of events [49], HABs have become one of the most important issues in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors worldwide, with an inauspicious prognosis [55]. HABs such as Alexandrium catenella can be complex given their biology, which involves resistant phases that depend on complex interactions with oceanographic and atmospheric factors and processes (Fig. 4).
Conceptual model of HAB events. The figure shows growth phases and associated biological processes in interaction with human activities and oceanographic and atmospheric processes
Following the global trend, HABs in southern Chile’s Patagonian fjords have caused recurrent problems in recent decades [45, 59, 60]. Over the past few years, an expansion of HAB events has been observed towards northern Chilean Patagonia, particularly outbreaks of paralytic shellfish poisoning caused by the dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella [60, 102]. There is growing scientific evidence on the importance of atmospheric conditions in promoting HAB events [52] as well as the relationship with nutrient input from aquaculture practices [32], but no comprehensive review of the evidence has been conducted. During the summer-autumn of 2016, toxic outbreaks reached the north of the Los Ríos Region (39° S) [67].
Very intense paralytic shellfish poisoning outbreaks are the main threat to public health and fisheries in the Patagonian fjords, particularly in the Aysén and Magallanes Regions [83]. In contrast, episodes of diarrheic shellfish poisoning caused by endemic species of the genus Dinophysis, mainly D. acuta, D. acuminata, producers of lipophilic toxins (okadaic acid and derivatives, pectenotoxins [128]), are the main threats in the Los Lagos Region [4, 86], which accounts for more than 95% of domestic mussel production (29 × 104 t yr−1).
Proliferation of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum, associated with the production of yessotoxins, has caused major problems in the Los Lagos Region in recent years. Other species, which can be called emerging species, such as those that produce ichthyotoxic toxins (Chatonella, Pseudochattonella and Karenia), have caused large salmon mortality in farms in the Aysén and Los Lagos regions. However, despite the serious economic disruptions caused by these microalgae, there are large knowledge gaps regarding their population dynamics, toxicology, triggering factors, and interannual variability, among others.
8.2.1 Causes of HABs in Chilean Patagonia
One of the greatest challenges to our understanding of HAB events is the diversity and multiplicity of biological and oceanographic processes [81, 119] that take place from the micro-scale (e.g. cyst germination) to the meso-scale (e.g. recirculation of water masses in a fjord) to the regional scale (e.g. freshwater discharge to the coast). All these processes are directly or indirectly modulated by atmospheric conditions, but the key variables depend on the spatiotemporal scale involved. For example, algal dispersal processes in the first few days or weeks of a HAB event are partially controlled by local ocean circulation, which is largely forced by surface wind strength [102]. Air temperature and solar energy on the surface determine to a large extent the temperature of the upper ocean layer, which in turn conditions the stability of the water column and may influence the cyst germination process (Fig. 4).
The link between atmospheric fluctuations and the occurrence of HAB events at the interannual scale is more elusive. Although the magnitude, spatial extent, and duration of HAB events in southern Chile vary substantially from year to year [60, 102, 103], the absence of a consolidated, long-term time series makes it difficult to connect them with climate variables. One hypothesis suggests that large-scale wind anomalies along Chilean Patagonia may be involved, due to their impact over coastal upwelling [102]. A long period of southerly wind may be able to increase the upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface waters, favoring the occurrence of HAB events. However, the interannual fluctuations of the meridional wind off the coast of Patagonia are small, as the zonal (east–west) wind predominates in that area. Alternatively, León-Muñoz et al. [90] emphasize the role of freshwater discharge variations in the coastal zone of Chilean Patagonia. Their work discussed the worst HAB event recorded in the history of southern Chile, which occurred during the summer-autumn of 2016, with catastrophic environmental, social, and economic consequences [67]. This period had the most intense drought of the past 50 years [52], resulting from the superimposition of an intense El Niño event on a decreasing rainfall trend impacting Patagonia since the 1960s [26]. The scarce evidence available shows that the reduced freshwater input to Patagonian fjords and channels decreased the thermohaline stratification, allowing nutrient upwelling. Thus, the increased nutrients on the surface layer and increased solar radiation under drought conditions would have favored the explosive increase of Pseudochattonella verruculosa and Alexandrium catenella in early 2016 [90].
Although physically plausible, the hypothesis connecting interannual rainfall fluctuations and HAB events requires corroboration by considering other events (as well as years in which they were missing). If verified, a negative future scenario is then anticipated for harmful blooms in the Chilean Patagonia. Climate projections point to a constant trend of reduced precipitation [26], aggravated occasionally by El Niño years, as was the case in the summer of 2016 [52].
8.2.2 Global Change and Possible Responses of HAB Species
Hallegraeff [64] suggested some responses that can be expected in a global change scenario, (i) range expansion of warm-water species at the expense of colder water species, which would be displaced towards the poles; (ii) species-specific changes in HAB abundance and seasonality; (iii) changes in the phenology of some phytoplankton species (e.g. early onset, longer occurrence periods); (iv) secondary effects on the marine food web, mainly when zooplankton species and planktivorous fish are affected differently. The general hypothesis put forward by this author is that some harmful algal species may become more competitive, while others may decline considerably in areas where they are generally recurrent, i.e. there will be “winners” and “losers”.
The predicted increase in sea surface temperature (ca. 2 °C) for the Patagonian fjord and channel system is expected to favor microalgae that cause the most problems in this area. Wells et al. [178] pointed out that higher temperatures, stratification, ocean acidification, and eutrophication of the water column will result in positive effects for taxonomic groups such as Alexandrium and Heterosigma. Moore et al. [106] suggested that temperature increases will widen the window of opportunity for Alexandrium catenella, reflected in the extension of the bloom period. Fu et al. [50] suggested that higher ocean acidification will increase cell toxicity in A. catenella, as well as in diatoms of the genus Pseudo-nitzschia.
Global change scenarios predicted for the coming decades in Chilean Patagonia suggest that HAB events could intensify in duration, toxicity, and even geographic range. Some of these issues are already apparent, as is the case of A. catenella and Dinophysis acuminata. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the dynamics and factors that govern these events is critical to put in place adequate management and mitigation measures.
8.3 Mining, Aquaculture, and Sphagnum Moss Extraction from Peatlands
Mining is undoubtedly an emerging threat to Patagonia. Although it has seen little development to date in Chilean Patagonia, it is still a relevant factor due to its potential consequences. In contrast, mining activities are widespread in Argentine Patagonia [22] where they caused major impacts during the mid-twentieth century, particularly in the area of Lake General Carrera [33]. According to Inostroza [73], there were 644 mining concessions in the Magallanes Region as of March 2010. Of these, 461 were for exploration and 183 for exploitation purposes (National Geology and Mining Service, SERNAGEOMIN), covering a total of 1,897 km2, 1.4% of the region’s total surface area. The author considers this to be a regional mining boom focused on coal, concentrated in five areas, located in the Magallanes coal basin: Natales, Skyring, Riesco, Brunswyck, and Tierra del Fuego, with Riesco being the area with the most mining activity. This coal boom is explained by the increase in coal prices and domestic demand associated with the energy sector. While the threat represented by this boom could be curbed under expected national energy decarbonization policies, the emergence of international markets is always a possibility. Aquaculture has also increased during the last 10 years, reflected in increasing production and in the number of aquaculture concession applications, which reached 979 in 2009 [73]. Unlike mining, however, this is a growing activity.
The extraction of Sphagnum moss, a key species in peatland ecosystems, is an emergent activity whose relevance is increasing on Chiloé Island and Patagonia. Sphagnum fibers are the second most important non-timber forest product in Chile [75, 89]. According to León et al. [89], its extraction rate has grown by more than 150% between 2007 and 2017, reaching annual exports of more than 3,500 tons, mainly to Taiwan, China, and the United States. This species provides important ecosystem services associated with carbon fixation and sequestration, as well as the production of fibers for horticulture. Its extraction negatively affects the diversity and composition of these plant communities, as well as the water and carbon cycles [88, 181]. Therefore, regulating the activity and enhancing knowledge for restoration and sustainable use is critical, especially in the context of the entry into force of Decree 25 of the Ministry of Agriculture, which governs extraction and requires harvesting plans.
9 Discussion
This chapter focused mainly on reviewing the available information on the primary global change drivers that operate, with varying intensity, in Chilean Patagonia. In addition, new information was presented on the impacts of climate change and its variability in the area, as well as biodiversity-related effects. However, our analyses are very preliminary and highlight the need to better address the impact of climate change on coastal zones, ecosystem processes, and protected areas in the region.
Many invasive species show high potential to lead to changes in ecosystem functioning, especially given positive feedback with other global change drivers, including climate change. Particularly worth noting is the potential of Pinus contorta and Ulex europeus to alter fire dynamics in northern Chilean Patagonia, contributing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, increasing impacts (less precipitation, higher temperatures), which in turn would make both species more flammable [109, 159]. Positive feedbacks favor the presence of other exotic species and disturbances such as fire. This suggests that certain areas of Patagonia are vulnerable to an “invasion meltdown” [150], where facilitation phenomena among invasive species could increase their presence, distribution, and impact. This is particularly relevant in Tierra del Fuego, where the number of exotic mammals and freshwater fish exceeds that of native species [6, 165]. In addition to ecosystem monitoring programs, it is urgent to establish barriers to the introduction of more species and to prevent the expansion of those already introduced [145].
Other change drivers, tourism and land use change associated with cattle ranching, are also increasing. Tourism-related use of the landscape, accounting for 15.8% of the territory [73], is projected to increase in the coming years as a result of the southern highway expansion and the Chacao bridge. The importance of livestock, currently in about 24% of the Magallanes Region [73], will tend to increase in the long term, to then decrease (Fig. 3), thus basic knowledge to restore these ecosystems is needed.
The lack of knowledge about ecosystem functioning—particularly nutrient cycles—is a major gap in assessing and anticipating the impacts of the various global change drivers. This knowledge is essential in the context of climate change, where temperatures will increase, and precipitation events will become more extreme. Available information in Argentine Patagonia suggests a strong interaction between climate change and livestock, with impacts on the carbon cycle and particularly on soil organic carbon [114]. The authors suggest that livestock stocking management is essential for the maintenance of soil productivity. However, more long-term research is needed on key ecosystem processes associated with nutrient decomposition and cycling, as well as on soil microbiota.
Near-surface air temperature changes projected by global models for Patagonia are smaller in magnitude than those expected for other southern cone sectors. This is due in part to the thermal amelioration effect resulting from the reduced land mass relative to the surrounding ocean with its huge thermal inertia. There is consensus, however, that Chilean Patagonia will experience increased temperatures, with spatial variations from 1.1 °C to 1.7 °C by late in the century (2070), and under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5). These values are comparable to the current interannual variability ranges for this region but may have important consequences on terrestrial and coastal ecosystems. Maximum rainfall reduction is between 5.5 mm and 116 mm, consistent with the reduction trends noted by other authors [26]. Although Patagonia has a hyper-humid climate condition that will remain even under the projected differences towards the end of the century, such changes could nonetheless have considerable impacts on terrestrial and marine systems [156]. In the latter case this is due to the drop in freshwater transport to the coastal zone, altering the area’s complex hydrobiological balance. Changes predicted in the models also indicate that mean conditions will be altered.
Interannual variations (such as those resulting from the ENSO phenomenon) are also superimposed on this altered condition and can lead to an increase in the occurrence of extreme droughts. Take as an example the summer of 2016 [1, 52], which had severe socioenvironmental consequences due to the large HAB event in the autumn-summer of that same year [90], and is consistent with the exceedance analyses of global climate models, which predict an increase in the probability of minimum and maximum extreme temperature events, and longer and more intense droughts [42].
Changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functioning resulting from climate change are difficult to predict. Available literature for Chilean Patagonia points to a decreasing trend in the distribution of evergreen forests and peatlands [120], as well as major impacts on species [97], in interaction with other global change drivers such as fire [14, 169]. While there is evidence of Patagonian ecosystems’ resilience and capacity to adapt to Holocene climate modifications, large and abrupt changes associated with the European colonization in the twentieth century are reported. The latter go hand in hand with an increase in fires, habitat loss, and invasion of exotic species [108, 168], making the interactions between global change drivers particularly relevant. As Iglesias and Whitlock [72] point out, “The weak relation between fire and prehistoric humans is in contrast to the influence that European settlement had on fire regimes. By altering the probability of ignition through accidental and deliberate burning, and converting large areas of native forest to fire-prone communities (e.g. pine and eucalyptus plantations), Europeans have gradually increased the risk of fire in Patagonia. This trend is likely to continue into the future with a drier climate, threatening the regeneration of fire-sensitive keystone species like A. chilensis”. An increase in exotic plantations, together with a drier and warmer climate and an increase in the abundance of exotic herbivores that impact the regeneration of native species, may have profound consequences on the dynamics of Chilean and Argentinean Patagonian ecosystems (e.g. [125, 168]). Finally, the fjords and channels of Chilean Patagonia have been highlighted as an area relatively exposed to flooding and sea level rise as a result of climate change [36, 179]. This is explained by its large coastal area below 10 m and the predicted intensification of extreme weather events such as storm surges and floods [179], which are expected to have important negative effects on the flow of ecosystem services in the region [78].
This chapter suggests that one of the greatest threats to coastal ecosystems is associated with HABs. These have a major impact on biodiversity and the functioning of the area's socio-ecosystems, and result from the synergic action of different global change drivers associated with the climate regime and anthropogenic activities that discharge nutrients into rivers and cause coastal eutrophication events, in addition to climate change and salmon farming. Undoubtedly, HABs should be one of the main research priorities in Chilean Patagonia, particularly in their connections with exotic species. This requires basic research focused on public policies to regulate coastal productive activities.
Salmon farming in Chilean Patagonia has diverse environmental consequences [29, 31], that undoubtedly became intimately linked following the red tide event of the summer of 2016 [30]. The general perception is that aquaculture is related to HABs. Nutrient enrichment processes and HAB events are apparent in many coastal regions [53]. In Chile there is also evidence that algae can capture inorganic nitrogen produced by salmonids and intensify their growth at distances of up to at least 1 km from a farm. The amount of inorganic nitrogen that salmon farming introduces annually to the environment is very high and cannot be ignored [31]. This situation deserves more attention, as well as the development of technologies to control nutrient input to this extensive coastal zone. However, the environmental situation in Chilean Patagonia is even more complex. In addition to aquaculture, climate change and factors such as vessel traffic, coastal and seabed pollution, and overfishing are also present (Hucke et al., 2018) [104]. Emerging impacts such as microplastics have also been reported in Patagonian species [79], and require further monitoring (see [85]).
Finally, we must stress the importance of inland water ecosystems for the dynamics of terrestrial and coastal ecosystems and the scarce knowledge available. This is particularly important given the threats related to exotic species with relevant ecosystem effects, that interact with other global change drivers such as UV radiation, land use and land cover alterations, and climate change. This is compounded by weak environmental governance regarding ecosystem impact assessments [82]. Increasing our knowledge regarding these ecosystems and how to strengthen their resilience is certainly a priority.
10 Conclusions and Recommendations
There is an important tension between the intense threats associated with different global change drivers and the unique characteristics of Patagonia’s ecosystems, their levels of protection and its pristine condition. Direct threats associated with reduced precipitation, increased temperatures, and exotic species are identified as important global change drivers in terrestrial and inland water ecosystems in Patagonia. While the recurrence of HAB events and wildfires are the main negative expressions of global systemic change in the area, major knowledge gaps on the functioning of Patagonian ecosystems persist. This is particularly true concerning the interactions between terrestrial, inland water, and marine ecosystems and the global change drivers that affect them. The former applies mainly to the synergies of different global change drivers, for example, the introduction of species, salmon farming, UVR, land use and land cover modifications, climate change, and the alteration of biogeochemical cycles. Tourism, salmon farming, cattle ranching, and Sphagnum extraction appear to be high-impact activities that require improved regulations to make the region's socioeconomic development goals consistent with conservation. While mining has a potential impact, it is still relatively minor. It could, however, become a major problem, depending on the behavior of internal and external markets.
Finally, one of the greatest conservation challenges is found in steppes and grasslands. This is due to the low predictability of climate change in areas with major variation—especially in precipitation—and to pressures associated with a shift to anthropogenic uses [123].
Considering the results of this chapter, we recommend the following:
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An assessment is required on the state of the Patagonian ecosystems; the state of the services they provide to people, and the impact of the different global change drivers. Specific focuses should include tourism and associated negative externalities, the introduction of exotic species, salmon farming, mining, and the potential impacts of these activities in the recurrence of HAB, fires and biodiversity loss. The creation of a long-term monitoring network is suggested, with a series of plots following the Ecology and Biodiversity Plots in Natural Environments in Southern Patagonia model [113], through a consortium of local universities, research centers, private organizations, and NGOs to promote scientific cooperation links with Argentinean researchers and research centers.
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In the short- to medium-term, monitoring programs are needed for exotic species and for the possibility of an “invasive meltdown”, in which facilitation phenomena among invasive species could increase their establishment, range, and impacts. Research is also required for introduced pathogens that could be an important factor in the decline of natural populations, especially native fish species and native pollinators, where the co-introduction of pathogens has already been reported [11].
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In the short term, an evaluation is needed of the system of marine and terrestrial protected areas and their role in allowing for species’ climate change adaptation. In particular, basic information on groups such as fish and invertebrates is crucial.
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Finally, an integrated and ecosystem perspective should guide land use, including a sustainable development logic that minimizes negative impacts on social ecosystems. In particular, those activities that require urgent attention and regulations are those associated with aquaculture and use of the coastline; livestock (promoting reduced impacts on soil carbon and land use changes), and tourism, promoting best practices among guides and tourists (e.g. [127]).
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The authors would like to thank an anonymous reviewer and the editors of this book for their support during the publication process. Pablo Marquet gratefully acknowledges funding from Grant AFB170008 and FB210005.
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Marquet, P.A. et al. (2023). Global Change and Acceleration of Anthropic Pressures on Patagonian Ecosystems. In: Castilla, J.C., Armesto Zamudio, J.J., Martínez-Harms, M.J., Tecklin, D. (eds) Conservation in Chilean Patagonia. Integrated Science, vol 19. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-39408-9_2
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