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Trade Intervention Under the Belt and Road Initiative with Asian Economies

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Quantum Decision Theory and Complexity Modelling in Economics and Public Policy

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Abstract

International trade and association are the key contributors to economic integration and cohesion. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an auspicious development initiation taken by the Chinese government to endorse the logistics and infrastructure expansion under the One Belt One Road (OBOR) so that economic cohesion can be achieved between China and its trading partners. After half a decade of the BRI initiative, arguments have been elevated whether this remained profitable for the connected partner countries in the long run. Against this backdrop, this paper tries to estimate the trade performance of participating and connecting country’s using the traditional gravity model along with neural network model. The paper is set to examine whether the BRI is certainly a worthwhile initiative for Asian economics by associating the relative estimation powers of the two mentioned techniques using bilateral trade flow from 1990 to 2019 of 32 Asian partner countries.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    It allows heteroscedasticity in the data by providing unbiased and consistent estimates even if there is large proportion of zero trade values.

  2. 2.

    Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka.

  3. 3.

    China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia.

  4. 4.

    Brunei, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.

  5. 5.

    Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.

  6. 6.

    Australia, Fiji, New Zealand.

  7. 7.

    To allow variation in the random training-test division and the development of the neural network.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Editors of the book for their inputs.

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Correspondence to Sunetra Ghatak .

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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 11.4, 11.5.

Table 11.4 List and description of the variables
Table 11.5 List of country names in the sample

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Ghatak, S., Roy, S. (2023). Trade Intervention Under the Belt and Road Initiative with Asian Economies. In: Chakraborti, A., Haven, E., Patra, S., Singh, N. (eds) Quantum Decision Theory and Complexity Modelling in Economics and Public Policy. New Economic Windows. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-38833-0_11

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