Keywords

FormalPara Interviewees

  • Asanga Abeyagoonasekera

  • Gina Badenoch

  • Eli Beer

  • Chris Behrenbruch

  • Rajeeb Dey

  • Tariq Krim

  • Tristan Lecomte

  • Bob MacMahon

  • Martin Müller

  • Olivier Oullier

  • David Rodin

  • Tobby Simon

  • Ian Solomon

  • Mark Turrell

  • Arnaud Ventura

  • Mark Vlasic

  • Lisa Witter

‘The national interest is predetermined by geopolitcs or the history of a country. Important political leaders never just followed their interests—they were concerned about the interests of their people’.—Joseph Nye

How will geopolitics transform over the next 30 years? What type of global challenges will humanity be facing? Will we find better ways to live in harmony with nature? How will we deal with the future collapse of borders or with the intensification of sharing economy and disruptive entrepreneurship, as well as the emergence of cities with global influence? This chapter will be looking at these questions and more.

A world with new opportunities is emerging for businesses, investors and policymakers. Everything seems to indicate that the world is in the midst of another period of historical and messy transition, a rebalancing of economic and political power; in the next 30 years we may see:

  • Future politics will move away from right and left towards more openness or resistance to change—a sort of worldview struggle.

  • China will become the world’s largest economy and a more significant political actor.

  • The proportion of ‘less free’ economies with a high degree of state ownership and control is predicted to increase sharply.

  • In addition to traditional powers like China, India, USA and possibly Europe and Russia, emerging power hubs by 2050 will possibly be Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam, all with large populations and economies.

  • Warfare is transitioning from regular armies to freelance contractors, militias, special, robotic and cyber forces, making nations’ traditional military less relevant. Future conflicts will be more about spheres of influence, water, resources and supply lines and less about territory.

  • Technological, ecological, social and cultural soft power will most probably become more important than economic and military hard power.

As we have seen during the Covid-19 pandemic, global black swan or great rhino events can radically impact the world. Tom Orlik and Bjorn Van Roye from Bloomberg Economics (2020) predict four possible scenarios:

  1. 1.

    The current Western-dominated paradigm succeeds to address its current weaknesses and fragmentation, resulting in a renewed democratic revolution. Contributing to an environment in which the challenging powers would be successfully convinced to integrate. Coined as ‘liberal internationalism renewed’—a reloaded version of the paradigm prevailing since the end of the World War II.

  2. 2.

    Those who oppose the Western-led paradigm—Russia, China and others—take advantage of the situation and move relatively peacefully towards a multi-polar world. Labelled as ‘twenty-first-century concert’, in reference to the nineteenth-century Concert of Nations.

  3. 3.

    A version of the second, but with one important difference. The transition to multi-polarists turns violent, armed conflict spreading to ever more regions of the world. Let us refer to this as ‘geostrategic meltdown’, a renewed period of global conflict.

  4. 4.

    Finally, the possibility of a military breakthrough that would be sufficiently convincing for challengers to step down. Similar to submarines in World War I and nuclear weapons in World War II.

1 Nation States, Population and Global Trade

International trade is rarely looked at with a humanitarian lens. However, China’s rapid trade-driven growth in the past 30 years helped 680 million people move out of poverty.

Throughout much of the last century, strong trade restrictions, including agricultural barriers and subsidies in Europe and the USA, as well as import duties almost everywhere, seriously slowed growth. Research published by the Copenhagen Consensus reveals that more than half the cost to developing countries comes from their own policies. This would concurrently mean that unilateral action could result in half the potential benefits, not having to wait for others to act.

Bloomberg Economics forecast that a remarkable period of stability, from the end of World War II through to the early twenty-first century, is coming to a halt. Economic influence and power is transitioning from West to East, ‘from advanced economies to emerging markets, from free markets to state controls and from established democracies to authoritarian and populist rulers’. We can already witness this shift happening (Orlik and Van Roye, 2020).

Of course, these projections could be easily derailed by such complex events of global impact as the Covid-19 crisis with major consequences to the global economy. Armed conflicts, natural disasters and financial collapse can have a similar impact. Policy decisions on globalization and climate change can have global repercussions as well.

China’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to slow down to around 3% by the 2040s, resulting from an aging workforce and slowing development. India will likely develop at a faster pace given its younger population and significant gap to make up for. We will likely see more tensions between China and India as they continue to position themselves as the main centres of gravity in Asia.

Based on Bloomberg Economics’ GDP forecasts and the Heritage Foundation’s classification system, the share of global output from ‘free’ or ‘mostly free’ economies is to slide from 57% in 2000 to 33% in 2050. The share from economies classed as ‘mostly unfree’—with a high degree of state ownership and control—is set to rise from 12% to 43% (Orlik and Van Roye, 2020).

Looking back, the end of the Cold War—referred to as the end of history by Fukuyama (1992)—was just a turn of chapters. We are seeing an unorderly transition of the balance of power from West to East, from free markets to the state and from democracies to authoritarianism and populism. For governments, businesses and innovators, history is far from over. It is just getting wind up.

According to Lindsey Galloway (2020) in a BBC article, in 30 years current superpowers such as the USA, Japan and Germany will be overtaken by emerging nations as the world’s largest economies. The top ten economies in 2050 listed by PWC’s ‘The World in 2050 report’ (2015) will be (1) China, (2) India, (3) USA, (4) Indonesia, (5) Brazil, (6) Russia, (7) Mexico, (8) Japan, (9) Germany, and (10) UK.

2 Global Alliances and Conflict

The World Economic Forum predicts a shift in the balance of power. Among its expert networks the Global Future Council is the world’s foremost multistakeholder and interdisciplinary knowledge network dedicating to promoting innovative thinking to shape a more resilient, inclusive and sustainable future. It is likely that we are witnessing the world entering another period of major historical shift.

War always has a heavy economic and human toll. According to the Copenhagen Consensus Centre, the twentieth-century military cost about 5% of GDP per year. Yet, since the Korean war peak of 7%, global costs have declined steadily through 3.4% in 1980 to about 1.7% now. Even for a pessimistic outlook till 2050, this might only go up to about 1.8%—and with a more optimistic outlook, it could decline further to 1.6%. Have the heavy military costs of the twentieth century been turned into a permanent peace dividend?

3 Normative and Ideological Environment

We can observe a tech-driven cultural mindset shift emerging in the 2020s, driven by a completely new value system represented by Millenials, based on circular economy and an increased emphasis on artificial intelligence. Nations, governments and institutions not meeting expectations are increasingly bypassed by megacities, private corporations, NGOs and citizen groups, in a major transition of political power. Networks of pooled interests are emerging, aiming to address pressing global issues by introducing innovative, pragmatic and affordable crowd-sourced solutions. These flexible new structures form the backbone of an emerging global order. The masses increasingly believe in these new structures as they deliver in ways that nations failed to do.

Stephen Walt (2015), international relations professor at Harvard University, writes the following in a Foreign Policy article titled ‘What Will 2050 Look Like?’:

‘If one is trying to envision the world of 2050, it is the technological frontier where our crystal ball is cloudiest. And let’s not forget the “black swans”: those seemingly random natural or man-made events that could shift the course of world politics in unexpected directions. A mass pandemic, a nuclear terrorist incident, an even bigger financial panic, or a catastrophic drought might have profound effects in many places, alter global discourse in key ways, and make many of our other forecasts look silly. And by their very nature, such events are hard to anticipate even if we know what their baseline probabilities might be’.

If we want to work towards creating a better future, we need to promote a transition that is less competitive and more cooperative at a global level. This would require a suppression of our short-term self-interest mindset in favour of longer-term human and environmental priorities. Current events and our evolutionary urge to survive and adapt will hopefully help steer the current transition in a positive direction.

4 Input from Interviewees

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera

Foreign policy specialist; founding director general of the Institute of National Security Studies, Sri Lanka

I expect a universal declaration against terrorism.

The world will go through a difficult time in the next decades, because of terrorism and the increasing role of non-state actors. Global institutions will need to be redesigned to tackle the issue of terrorism and the role of non-state actors. There will be a point in the future where we will all be fighting terrorism together because it disturbs world peace. Another world war, states fighting other states is less likely, but overall tension and chaos may increase in the next two decades due to non-state actors.

Humanity will come to a threshold whereby we would not be able to tolerate our situation any more, leading to the redesign of the United Nations (UN) and other global institutions, enabling them to intervene. Joseph Nye’s ‘positive sum game’ is more likely to become a reality, instead of a ‘zero sum game’.

More digital inventions, computational thinking and skills will be part of every discipline and absorbed by everyone. Sri Lanka is well located to become a major trade hub in South Asia. Chinese are helping develop Sri Lanka as a trade hub of the future. Two hundred years ago Sri Lanka was a trade hub; hence, this is like going back to the future.

New tech will have a dramatic impact on international relations. I am optimistic about the impact of nanotech and quantum computing on development. Populations will undergo lots of changes, no more rural, and growing standards of living. In Sri Lanka from a population of 21 million, 18 million has a mobile phone and over 90% literacy rate. This will further increase; thus, Sri Lanka could grow into a developed nation in about 30 years.

There will be less power at the centre, with devolution towards the people. I don’t see the rise of one country, but everyone at the same time. The Security Council will be enlarged, priority being the peace of the world.

Gina Badenoch

Social entrepreneur and photographer; founder, Ojos Que Sienten AC and Capaxia, UK

I don’t believe in a world war in the next 50 years.

Nature is paying back. We are a bit late, and sadly I believe that we will see worst. What I love about London is that it is very diverse. And when the Olympics happened, it is how I picture the world in the future. There was diversity in all the senses, people with disabilities, without disabilities, of all nationalities.

I see huge potential for Mexico’s development. Unfortunately, there is a huge amount of corruption going on. The top third billionaire lives in Mexico, while there are so many poor people. There is big inequality with many people lacking education and opportunities. I hope that a better education system will shoot the country up in the future.

Eli Beer

Social innovator and first responder; founder of United Hatzalah of Israel

We will have a lot of wars going on in the next 50 years.

I am very pessimistic about geopolitics. We will have a lot of wars going on in the next 50 years. Religious radicals will enforce many wars. Terrorism will continue for another 200 years or so. It will take so long because young generation especially in middle east learn to be radicals for a cause. One hundred years of hatred and another 100 years to clean up the hatred.

People today make money of being leaders of hatred and will take time until people will be sick and tired of it. History repeats itself. In 200 years there will be a renaissance and people will realize that they will have to find a way to live together, but before that millions of people will die.

Chris Behrenbruch

Biomedical engineer; co-founder and CEO of Telix Pharmaceuticals

Nuclear terrorism will be a certainty. This, combined with mass urbanization, will change the way we look at borders and frontiers—the protectionist policies and legal frameworks of the world’s existing megacities will further grow and expand to the point where the world’s politics will be dominated by city states. This will have the effect of hyperlocalizing environmental, economic and racial issues—in the long term it will create better global governance and decentralize power in countries like the USA. In the short–medium term it will cause major conflict.

Rajeeb Dey

Founder and chief executive officer, Learnerbly.

Which nation will be the first to colonize outer space?

Tariq Krim

Writer, tech entrepreneur and inventor; founder Slow Web Initiative

For the last 40 years, goal of technology has escaped externalities. We didn’t care about consequences in the real world. Now the global internet will be profoundly shaped by geopolitics and is at risk of splintering into regional subnetworks.

Tristan Lecomte

Chief executive officer, Pur Projet

We are not the happiest now. Those who are richest are not the happiest, but rather those who are closest to nature (see happiness world surveys). We need to act or risk being more and more unhappy. For instance, China has a lot of these big cities with factories where people go working every day, totally unhappy and depressed.

Bob Macmahon

International affairs journalist, managing editor, Foreign Affairs Magazine, Council on Foreign Relations

The United States will not be the unipolar power it used to be, as it does not want to be the dominant world power any longer. USA defence establishment does not want to spend as much budget as until now in the future. The world will be organized based on coalitions of the powerful. The Security Council will be expanded to tackle together issues like global governance of Internet, climate change, etc. Space may be governed by international norms. The United Nations will include not only nation states. The ability of global leadership in terms of coordination and resilience against national disasters (virus like covid, or asteroid event) will evolve continuously.

Martin Müller

Executive director, Science Anticipator, Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA)

Three key drivers of the future will be (i) information technologies and the underlying usage of data, (ii) access to next generation resources and who controls them and (iii) geopolitics with new alignments emerging, affecting every other driver.

Olivier Oullier

Professor of behavioural and brain sciences; co-founder and chairman of Inclusive Brains

Ultimately, global institutions might end up running countries as opposed to the opposite. The mayors of big cities will have increasing power over centralized governments.

Next, wars will be very different using robots, drones and cyber warfare. Even today one could theoretically destroy a city sitting giving orders remotely to drones without any human soldiers being required. How this will change in 30 to 50 years is unpredictable.

The power of leaderless revolutions to bring down regimes is a reality. But we have not seen yet any such revolution being followed by a leaderless creation of new and improved regimes. Leaders are still needed … so far.

David Rodin

Moral and political philosopher; founder and CEO of Principia Advisory

We have commemorated the 100 years anniversary of the first World War not too long ago, and I see much parallel between today and that time.

Global governance structures are under increasing strain, set up 60 years ago. Despite multiple reform efforts not much change. The UN will not disappear but diminish in relevance. There will be an increase in spreading the EU model, basic idea of interrelated sovereigns or super sovereign structures. Process of enlargement shall continue and act as an example for other regions (Asian, African states, Russian trade initiative, etc.).

Tobby Simon

Founder and president of Synergia Foundation

World will be fragmented and fractured in 30 years. Competition for economic resources; deceases will increase in complexity; new strains will emerge. In an interconnected world everyone will be more affected; countries would close their border. Cybersecurity challenges are also becoming more prevalent. India will become more resilient; standard of living will increase and will be among the top 5 in the world. Country will acquire more character.

All continents will reengineer themselves. For instance, Europe will still remain among top 5 regions in the world. I don’t see global war, but 4–5 man-made disasters; conflicts will be of economic nature, e.g. South China Sea. Australia will be the largest producer of natural gas in the world. Middle East power balance will majorly change.

Ian Solomon

Professor of practice of public policy; dean, Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy

New ways will need to be invented to organize ourselves. Leaders will have to step up and adapt, shape, create value in the changing context. I am optimistic but a bit overwhelmed.

The USA will be still important. It will still be most probably a major and most powerful state, but how it will interact with technological, trade and other interest blocks and alliances will be very different than today. Facebook versus Myspace versus outer space.

Geography will still be important but less than today, or in other ways. We will still see armies. How to build national identity in the future, building support for social movements? How will mobs use new tools? USA versus China may not be so relevant anymore, but rather what about workers and so on. USA values of innovation, tolerance will still be important, and institutions will need to be developed to maintain USA’ competitive edge.

Mark Turrell

Strategist, educator and entrepreneur; founder and CEO of Orasci

Good and bad people can equally emerge, while bad people are usually more motivated.

China will evidently rise, similar to USA, growing in influence and military power without wanting to participate in any war. Chinese military is also expanding to protect their trade interests (for the moment).

I am relatively positive, optimistic about the next 30 years. Wars of the future will be on the Internet, on voicing and sharing opinions and data. Enough traffic and demand flowing through the Internet that this is inevitable—no turning back. Systems are more unstable, prone for revolutions. Nationalistic rhetoric lets governments turn people’s rights off. Everyone can be (is) a terrorist these days… .

Arnaud Ventura

Financial inclusion specialist; co-founder and vice president of Positive Planet Group

The current barriers will progressively dislocate, transforming our world into an open world. In the next 30 years, France, as well as most of Europe, will continue their move to become one of the oldest continents, in terms of average population age, on Earth, moving definitively from an industrial economy towards an economy of leisure and tourism. France will not be able to pretend anymore to be one of the world’s leading powers, and as Argentina in the beginning of the twentieth century will move from being one of the world’s great powers to being a charming country with an interesting culture.

One of the main events that will change the world in the next 30 years, or possibly the next century, is the collapse of our borders. My grandchildren will certainly live in a world where our current definition of nation and citizenship does not apply anymore, because of major innovations in travel and energy, most citizens will be in connection not only thanks to telecommunication means but also through physical means. The current barriers will progressively dislocate, transforming our world into an open world.

Mark Vlasic

Professor, lawyer, Hollywood producer and former international war crimes prosecutor; principal, Madison Law and Strategy Group; and senior fellow and adjunct professor of Law, Georgetown University

Expect a lot more complexity and unlikely alliances in a resource-stretched world.

Lisa Witter

Executive, serial entrepreneur, writer and public speaker; co-founder and executive chair of Apolitical

The world will completely change. Privatization versus public good will be important, e.g., who will own the air—a government or a company?

The world will be less power-centred. USA and EU will still be significant; Latin America will improve; Africa needs catchup. There will be less conflicts, less resource dependency, less religious disputes. People will be more satisfied.