Future of Leadership

Abstract

The current pandemic and the accelerating future require a new type of leadership to emerge. The Young Global Leaders of the World Economic Forum (WEF) interviewed in this book envision an emerging era of humanity and empathy as we transition towards a more digital existence where global institutions will be significantly redesigned. Future leaders shall be role models, representing a new set of values that inspire new generations to lead with heart, compassion, emotional intelligence, care, education and kindness. Authentic leadership traits such as adaptability, collaboration, creativity, emotional intelligence, entrepreneurship, ethics, resilience, self-awareness and social awareness will be crucial for future-generation leaders. Eight traits responsible for the development of early leadership abilities of Young Global Leaders included evolutionary traits, early exposure to significant responsibility, high expectations, enabling environments, important crucible moments and the pursuit of passion. The concept of leadership is changing, and the right mix of authenticity and Machiavellianism is necessary to make an impact in an increasingly complex world.

FormalPara Interviewees

• David Aikman

• Wadia Ait Hamza

• Chris Behrenbruch

• Yobie Benjamin

• Marga Gual Soler

• Tristan Lecomte

• André Loesekrug-Pietri

• Martin Müller

• Seán Ó Héigeartaigh

• Lucian Tarnowski

• Mark Turrell

• Felicitas Von Peter

“It is easier to fight for one’s principles than to live up to them”.—Alfred Adler

Now, we lack true global leaders. An accelerating future will require a new type of leadership to appear. Below is a summary of the most interesting ideas in this domain, provided by our interviewees.

While current leadership styles are typically:

• Trying to figure out how to transform top-down hierarchical organizations and answer the question: how to lead in a period of change (like during the Covid-19 pandemic)?

• Relying on best practices and latest research in cognitive and social sciences trying to figure out how to influence and persuade others.

• Craving for innovation, while still being bugged down by the old routines.

Leadership styles likely to emerge in the future will:

• Rely on neuroscience to integrate mindfulness strategies enhancing performance and resilience

• Be more aware of methods of manipulation, ensuring that next-generation leaders are responsible, ethical and driven to do ‘good’

• Try to move their organizations towards flat organic structures and ‘connected autonomy’, improving their ability to scale (Table 1)

Table 1 Emerging leadership styles (Landesz, 2016)

Young Global Leaders (YGLs) of the World Economic Forum (WEF) interviewed for this book seem to converge towards a shared view regarding a new type of leadership to emerge. They envision an emerging era of humanity and empathy, as we transition towards a more digital existence where the role of global institutions will be significantly redesigned (Landesz, 2016):

• ‘Technology will become an enabler for people to use themselves more effectively, maximizing their potential … Reputation will be so much more important because everyone will be aware of it’. (Lucian Tarnowski)

• ‘Change requires leadership in complex systems’. (Mark Turrell)

• ‘Using technology and science to connect us with nature, instead of thinking that we can control it’. (Tristan Lecomte)

• ‘It’s just a matter of time before we can “download” ourselves fully into the digital domain and in doing so, pull the plug on our biological identities’. (Chris Behrenbruch)

The vast majority of YGLs envision the world as a better place with ‘equality, opportunities and humanity, requiring lower levels of Machiavellianism and higher levels of authentic leadership in future generations’. YGLs are to step up as role models, representing a new set of values to inspire next-generation leaders (Landesz, 2016).

According to research conducted by Landesz, YGLs identified mostly with the authentic leadership value ‘leading with heart’, which refers to compassion, emotional intelligence and learning, care, education and kindness. Interestingly, this was followed closely by the Machiavellian leadership value ‘self-love, money, power, and competition’, more specifically referring to decentralization, computational processing power, enhanced human mind, as well as empowered women.

YGLs shared their vision with Landesz about the skills needed to lead in an increasingly VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambigous) world. Most common visions include the increased importance of traits such as adaptability, collaboration, consciousness, creativity, embracing change, discipline, diversity, emotional intelligence, empathy, entrepreneurship, ethical, grounding oneself, in harmony with nature, having fun, honesty, humanism, meditation, mindfulness, networked thinking and learning, passion, reputation, resilience, respect, self-awareness, social awareness, multilingualism and tolerance. These attributes are similar to the elements described in recent leadership literature and foreshadow the importance of authentic leadership traits in future-generation leaders.

The concept of leadership is changing. Understanding an individual’s unique DNA of talent will become important. Dealing with emerging challenges will require new approaches and a different leadership style.

The world would be a far better, more humane place, if we were always authentic, modest, truthful and consistently concerned about the welfare of others instead of pursuing our own interests. However, such a world does not exist. Hence, Landesz asked what is the right mix of authenticity and Machiavellianism in a leader to be able to make an impact in an increasingly complex world?

Varghese and Ferose (2014) identified eight traits responsible for the development of YGLs’ early leadership abilities:

• 1. Evolutionary traits that helped our predecessors, like fear more than confidence, a sense of insecurity more than security, and the awareness of those feelings, and struggle to cope. These traits aided YGLs in achieving early accomplishments.

• 2. Many who succeeded early were exposed to or trusted with significant responsibility by the age of 10 years, either by design or destiny, e.g. being sent to boarding school, feeling responsible for a sibling after parents divorced or moving from a village to a city for studies. Several YGLs assumed responsibility at an early age.

• 3. It is not uncommon for individuals to reach a certain level of success and freeze. This is the time for role models—parents, teachers—to help setting high expectations, building enabling environments and helping them break psychological roadblocks. Several YGLs were encouraged from an early age to find their ways through self-fulfilling prophesies.

• 4. All YGLs who succeeded early in life experienced important crucible moments in their lives, like meeting people impacting them deeply, allowing them to define who they are.

• 5. Several early success stories show the commonality of striving to stand out, a desire for freedom, flexibility and a creative space. This intense desire gives them the strength to assume more risks and to embark on their own journey.

• 6. The majority of YGLs had ‘no choice’ in making many of their key decisions. They were just lucky. Knowing oneself and taking advantage of smaller opportunities kept many YGLs on the ascent.

• 7. Interestingly, several successful YGLs are not motivated by a larger than life vision but driven by a general ambition to succeed. This ambitious greed for success seemed to be more accentuated than any other talent in the path to success. Many of them had no problem to give up on a failed mission to move on to the next.

• 8. Many YGLs who experienced early success seemed to be introverted, but learned to be extroverted for carrying out their duties. This allowed them to switch between drawing energy from the world and drawing energy from within.

Landesz (2016) compared the results of the Authentic Leadership Questionnaire (ALQ) against the Machiavellianism Test (MACH IV) (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1

Authentic leadership quadrant (Landesz, 2016)

The findings confirmed that a combination of low Mach—high ALQ scores are ideal for new age leaders, who are able to lead change in complex organizations, easily adapting to the new realities and promoting a caring style of leadership. This book goes a step further, offering a self-administered questionnaire to measure an individual’s Future Intelligence, or FQ (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2

Authentic leadership pyramid

According to Petrie (2014), senior faculty at the Centre for Creative Leadership, similarly to neural networks, organizations should become ‘smarter’ by connecting ‘more parts of their social system to each other and build a culture of shared leadership, achieve greater adaptability and collective capacity’. People should better understand their role within organizations and the nature of leadership which is reflected in the process of connecting people as a network, continuously clarifying ‘direction’, establishing ‘alignment’ and garnering ‘commitment’. Leadership is gradually moving from an individual to the group level, with various people’s contributions influencing the collective. Concurrently, the differentiation between leaders and followers becomes less accentuated, as everyone can be both.

George (2015: 255–256) posits that Machiavellianism is not a crucial leadership trait of the future and that future leaders must thrive to ‘serve people equitably contributing to their societies’. Leaders should thrive to transition away from a Machiavellian (controlling) leadership to a more authentic (caring) leadership style in order to better adapt to a VUCA world, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Developing global firms and leadership cadre (adapted by Landesz from George, 2016)

Succeeding in the new global context will require organizations to develop managers with high Future Intelligence or Future Quotient (FQ). FQ consists of seven elements, all of which are essential for global leaders (adapted by Landesz from George’s Global Intelligence, 2016; Heifetz, 2002 and Heifetz et al., 2009):

• 1. Adaptability

• 2. Awareness

• 3. Curiosity

• 4. Empathy

• 5. Alignment

• 6. Collaboration

• 7. Integration

According to Mark Turrell, leaders will be held more accountable in the future: ‘If they do weird things, they will be easier caught… this may bring more humanity in leaders and encourage more honest conversations’. This will potentially limit the playing field for authoritarian dictators and put more pressure on leaders to create real value for their people.

1 Input from Interviewees

David Aikman

Co-founder and chief executive officer of ESG DAO

Leadership in 2050 and beyond will be more southern, more eastern, more empathetic, more holistic and more sustainable. We see the trends already with the younger generations who are rejecting the current system of leadership. They seek a more distributed form of leadership, favouring collective empowerment over the ‘cult of the CEO’ through structures like DAOs and Coops. They reject the ‘hustle culture’ and an economic system which is based on exploitation and extraction of value. They seek value- and mission-driven companies and organizations to work for. They embrace diversity, of all forms, with sincerity. They are interconnected in ways that my generation could never imagine, shifting fluidly between online and offline, between the digital and physical worlds… I am filled with hope when I see young leaders and aspiring leaders from this generation.

Wadia Ait Hamza

Head of the Forum of Young Global Leaders, World Economic Forum

Technology has made our world more connected than ever before and will continue to revolutionize the way we communicate and interact as a global society. As we explore the frontiers of this hybrid human experience, it is essential that we remember to emphasize the human in human interaction. In order to build a connected world where all members of our society are valued as essential stakeholders in our collective future, trust must form the foundation of our collective dialogue, empowering all of humanity to have a voice in our global conversation.

Chris Behrenbruch

Biomedical engineer; co-founder and CEO of Telix Pharmaceuticals

It’s just a matter of time before we can ‘download’ ourselves fully into the digital domain and in doing so, pull the plug on our biological identities.

Yobie Benjamin

Entrepreneur, futurist and speaker

I believe we will find a much more egalitarian world by 2050 where women, men and machine will be treated equally by all. National boundaries will disappear and travel will be open. Prosperity will be possible because by then the world will be energy independent and running on fusion, nuclear, solar and wind.

Marga Gual Soler

Head of Science Diplomacy Capacity Building, GESDA

The leaders of the future will embody three remarkable characteristics. First, they will possess a profound planetary consciousness, recognizing the interconnectedness of all life on Earth. While deeply honoring their countries, histories, cultures, languages, and traditions, they will rise above boundaries to embrace the idea of a shared human civilization. They will finally comprehend that our very existence as a species hinges on the delicate balance of this planet we call home. To safeguard our future, they will understand that collaboration and solidarity are the only way forward, as the challenges we face transcend borders and silos, and can only be overcome through joint efforts and multilateral action. They will embrace our common humanity as the only foundation upon which enduring solutions can be built. Second, future leaders will reject ignorance, science denialism and the distortion of truth, upholding facts and evidence as guiding beacons in decision-making. They will abandon linear thinking and adopt the power of exponential thought, realizing the profound impact of rapid change on our world. The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic serves as a poignant reminder of the need for anticipation, the ability to discern weak signals, and act preemptively to shape potential futures. Third, breaking free from silo thinking and echo chambers, the leaders of the future will become polymaths in their own right. They will seek diverse knowledge and skills, connecting seemingly unrelated disciplines to foster innovation and progress, and dismantling barriers to collaboration and mutual understanding. Looking ahead to the year 2050, a visionary shift in leadership becomes apparent in this book. I hope the 2024 UN Summit of the Future begins to chart this path. See you there!

Tristan Lecomte

Chief executive officer, Pur Projet

Using technology and science to connect us with nature, instead of thinking that we can control it.

André Loeskrug-Pietri

Chairman and scientific director, Joint European Distruptive Initiative (JEDI)

Science and technology will be increasingly central to all facets of human life in the twenty-first century. It depends on us to make it a force for good and equity. Let us always anticipate and shape the future and not be shaped by it.

Martin Müller

Executive director, Science Anticipator, GEneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator (GESDA)

How technology will reshape the nature of leadership? We have witnessed huge technological disruptions in recent years. Future leaders should develop the ability to harness future technologies, share information and exploit the power relationships. Power is more and more distributed, as well as increasingly competitive. New technologies have the potential to democratize the way people have access to and use power. So, I think future leaders will need to understand these technologies and how best they can be used.

Seán Ó Héigeartaigh

Programme director, AI: Futures and Responsibility Programme at the Centre for the Future of Intelligence, University of Cambridge

We are likely to see advances in artificial intelligence in the coming decades that will reshape the world we live in, revolutionizing scientific progress and changing the nature of work. We are beginning to see this already, with the progress DeepMind’s AI systems have made in the key scientific problem of protein folding, for example. We are also, unfortunately, seeing the potential for AI to be used for military or surveillance purposes, or to be used in ways that further disenfranchise the most disempowered in society. Concerns have been raised that further in the future it may be extremely difficult to ensure that advanced AI systems remain under meaningful human control. Such a loss of control could pose catastrophic consequences. Ensuring that these developments go well—ensuring that the benefits are distributed across society, that risks are avoided, and that existing inequalities are not perpetuated—will be the challenge for our time, requiring insights and cooperation across disciplines and across society. It is a tremendously exciting time to be alive.

Lucian Tarnowski

Hindsight futurist; founding curator of United Planet Game

Technology will become an enabler for people to use themselves more effectively, maximizing their potential. Reputation will be so much more important because everyone will be aware of it.

Mark Turrell

Strategist, educator and entrepreneur; founder and CEO of Orasci

Change requires leadership in complex systems. Leaders will be much more accountable in the future. If they do weird things, they will be easier caught. Ultimately, this may bring more humanity in leaders and encourage more honest conversations.

Felicitas Von Peter

Managing partner, Active Philanthropy

Will leaders in 2050 look differently than today? Undoubtedly. My hope is that the leaders of 2050 will lead in collaboration, integrate perspectives from all sectors of society and judge their decisions by their impacts on the planet, as well as its inhabitants. Profitability will be defined holistically and take into account the perspective of future generations—and their ability to live a fulfilling, healthy life in harmony with nature. And if you think this is naive, ask yourself whether this isn’t a kind of leadership to strive for?