Keywords

1 Introduction

The impact of climate change on human society is widely experienced particularly in rural areas where livelihoods are mainly climate sensitive (Pörtner et al., 2022). An increased body of research on climate change risks and vulnerability has shown the tendency to influence adversely on livelihood resources and strategies that are associated with the well-being of individuals, households or communities (Sengupta & Samanta, 2022; Adger, 2010). Livelihood resources that include natural (land and water), human (health, skills, education), social (relationships, networks, institutional support), physical (household assets and housing), and financial (income, savings, remittances) are expected to alter significantly (Guragain & Doneys, 2022; Hallegatte et al., 2011). Meanwhile, livelihood strategies that account for the ability to respond or adjust to (climate) stresses are mainly limited in rural settings (Sargani et al., 2022; Adger, 2010). For instance, the ability to cope or adapt depends on social, economic, and human capital and technical capacities to diversify (agricultural) income, increase knowledge and awareness, and access to government support.

In this regard, it is important to understand how climate extreme events impact livelihood resources and in turn, consider migration as a livelihood strategy to achieve better or sustain the well-being of families (Shahzad et al., 2019; Singh & Nair, 2014; Pagnani et al., 2021). Furthermore, viewing migration in the context of climate change via social and financial remittances is also important for understanding the adaptation potential of rural areas. For example, do remittances help to improve the well-being of migrants’ families left-behind through increased feelings of safety, more savings, better housing, better social networks, skills and so on, thus reducing their vulnerability to climate change? The availability of services in rural areas such as education and health needs to be taken into consideration, given they are an important reason why people migrate (Fischer et al., 2021; Deshingkar, 2006). Further, how can migration help to improve the well-being of rural households to overcome environmental and climate change risks and vulnerabilities?

There is a large gap in the migration literature in Pakistan regarding the understanding of climate change and migration interactions, as well as the role of migration as a response strategy, particularly in internal migratory movements. Addressing this gap is important because migration in Pakistan has so far mainly been studied as an economic phenomenon, where the focus has been on the economic reasons for migration, individual characteristics of migrants, and the effects of remittances on people and the economy (Salik et al., 2020; Gazdar, 2003). Such studies have used human capital models and employed macro-level data to understand individual-level human capital (such as education or health), the role of remittances in asset accumulation, savings and consumption behaviours, and impacts on poverty dynamics and income inequalities of the sending regions.

A handful of studies have examined the links between migration and climate change (Mueller et al., 2014; Saeed et al., 2016; Qaisrani et al., 2018). For instance, Mueller et al. (2014) provide a household-level analysis of the impact of climate variables on-farm production and incomes with rural out-migration rates in Pakistan. However, the study does not provide any information on social and economic situations during and after the climate-induced migration and how male out-migration could affect the well-being of migrants’ families left-behind in the context of climate change. Against this background, this study will focus on the understanding of potential associations between climate extreme events and migration with to migration decisions, processes, and outcomes in Pakistan.

The chapter consists of six sections including the introduction. The second section represents a short literature review on climate change and migration relationships. The third and fourth section present methods and study area descriptions, and the fifth section provides discussion. The last section furnishes conclusion.

2 Migration and Climate Change Relationship – Literature Review

Evidence of environmental and climate change factors influencing migration decisions and outcomes is widely acknowledged (Black et al., 2013; McLeman & Smit, 2006; Murphy, 2015; Kelley et al., 2015; Gray & Wise, 2016). The most quoted environmental and climate change ‘push’ factors that likely stimulate migration include droughts and floods, land degradation, loss of ecosystem services, climate extremes (such as heavy rainfall variability and temperature fluctuations) and sea-level rise (Afifi, 2011; Mueller et al., 2014).

However, the complexity and unpredictability of climate-induced migration are also highlighted because of the heterogeneity in individual and collective responses of society to climate change (Klaiber, 2014; Adger et al., 2015). The occurrence of climate change events is reported as characterized by slow-onset and fast-onset changes and associated with different migratory behaviours. Slow-onset climate changes relate to the gradual loss of agricultural productivity and ecosystem services through spatial shifts in cropping zones, increased crop water requirement, and degradation of soil and land fertility (Black et al., 2013). Fast-onset climate events such as floods, extreme rainfall variability and heatwaves, may reduce sudden access to livelihood resources, crop failure, damage to life and property (Black et al., 2013). As a result, many climate change stresses are linked to livelihoods resource degradation and to harm the well-being of an individual or a society (Adger, 2010).

Migration is a process shaped by both (migrant’s) agency and structure (social and institutional actors) that form a space for making decisions to migrate and improve well-being, according to the changing socio-economic, environmental and political conditions (de Haas, 2010). Concerning climate change, several empirical studies note that the most common response of vulnerable people is to migrate elsewhere (Black et al., 2013; Warner & Afifi, 2014). People may move temporarily or permanently to adapt or recover from climate change events or impacts (Black et al., 2013; Warner & Afifi, 2014). For instance, Mueller et al. (2014) find in rural Pakistan that an increase in winter temperature (heat stress) gradually affects farm and non-farm incomes, which is associated with long-term male out-migration to cities and towns.

However, given the complexity of migration and environmental or climate change interactions, scholars warn against drawing any deterministic or linear relationship between climate and environmental factors and migration (Faist & Scade, 2013; Black et al., 2011). More specifically, slow-onset climate changes rarely act alone to drive migration (Neumann & Hilderink, 2015). Rather, a multi-causality approach is required to understand the migration and environment links, because migration is a complex phenomenon encompassing non-environmental aspects such as social, economic, political, cultural and demographic factors (Black et al., 2011).

In this regard, there has been only limited progress in understanding how environmental and non-environmental drivers of migration interact (Bardsley & Hugo, 2010). This becomes more important when migration is broadly considered a risk management strategy (de Haas, 2010) and a lack of understanding of these interacting factors may hinder well-being and development efforts. Moreover, it is important to better understand how migration decisions are made under different types of environmental stresses, as well as the role of family and migration networks and the provision of funds to manage migration costs. This also requires a contextual understanding of how the decline in well-being (including poverty, inequality, and economic opportunities) can influence migration decisions and outcomes through the potential to cope or adapt to the impacts of climate change.

3 Data Collection

The study was carried out in Muzaffarabad District in Punjab and Tharparkar District in Sindh province during October and November 2019. The selection of villages (the sending rural areas) was made based on its exposures to climate vulnerabilities such as floods and droughts. Whereas the selection of urban centres (the destination areas) was based on the discussion with the rural respondent (of selected villages) that highlights the most common destination areas of rural migrants or displaced populations.

A total of 10 semi-structured were conducted, five each from rural and urban areas. In Muzaffargarh, three semi-structured interviews were conducted with migrant households located in urban areas and three from rural areas including one non-migrant. In the case of Tharparkar (Methi), a total of four semi-structured interviews were conducted, two each from rural and urban areas, with the sample also including two from female household members. Questions in the interview are mainly focused on basic household characteristics (such as age, gender, education, occupation, etc.) social and economic capital, impacts and outcomes of climate extreme events, causes of migration, changes in livelihoods and access to basic facilities at destination compared to origin areas, migration duration and social or migrant network support.

Furthermore, a total of 9 focus groups discussion (FGDs) were conducted to identify the role of migration and climate, gendered impacts and vulnerabilities, situation of left-behind family members in the sending areas as well as migrant families in the destination areas. In Muzaffargarh, four FGDs were conducted two each for rural and urban areas. Whereas five FGDs were conducted in Tharparkar, including one urban (female migrant household members), and four in rural areas (including two each for non-migrant and migrant male and female household members.

The interviews and FGDs were conducted in local languages i.e., Punjabi, Sariki and Sindhi, which were then translated and transcribed into the English language for the analysis. The data was then coded for identifying themes using NVivo 12 software.

4 Study Areas

As mentioned above, Muzaffargarh and Tharparkar were selected for this study based on their key social, economic, political, and environmental trends and challenges. Muzaffargarh is located in the south of Punjab province at the confluence of two main rivers i.e., the Indus and Chenab Rivers. Its location between the two rivers is associated with high flood risks causing multiple livelihood challenges to the population (Jamshed et al., 2020). Agriculture is a mainstay of rural Muzaffargarh is not only impacted by floods but also by other climatic factors such as heavy rainfall, hailstorm and droughts. Such climatic threats imply serious risks to agricultural productivity as well as increased vulnerability to the already poverty-ridden rural population. Although large-scale industry has been established in Muzaffargarh including thermal and coal power plants and oil refinery, however, due to a low human capital base, such development fails to generate alternative livelihoods for the local population (Naveed et al., 2017). The only options available to them to opt for daily wage jobs as a laborer in the informal sector elsewhere in the district or country to avoid the consequences of floods to farming, income losses and displacement. This occupational shift is more common among small landholding farmers and the landless rural populations (Jamshed et al., 2020). Such circumstances lead to temporary or permanent migration in the district which enables them to adapt to shocks from floods for reducing poverty and hunger, recover from physical and economic loss (such as the reconstruction of houses or livestock, etc.) and enhance family income through remittances (Imran et al. 2018; Jamal & Ashraf, 2011).

The district Tharparkar is situated in the south of Sindh province. The topography of the district is dominated by three important features: (1) cultivable fertile plain areas mostly irrigated by canals surface water, (2) hilly areas which have sweet groundwater that is mainly utilise for crop production, and (3) desert areas making up major part of the district, where livelihood mainly depend on livestock rearing (Akhtar & Jariko, 2018). Drought is the main climate hazard in the area, which become more frequent in the recent past (Siddiqui & Safi, 2019). Tharparkar district is the most socially deprived and ranked lowest among all district of Sindh province (Bengali et al., 2003; Channa et al., 2020; Qurat-ul-Ann & Mirza, 2021). It shows a high development lag of the district in terms of economic opportunities, education, housing quality and housing services (Bengali et al., 2003). Social inequality in Tharparkar is based on (old Hindu dominated) caste and the feudal system has declined over time (Hasan, 2010). During the war with India in 1971, the serfdom system was disrupted due to the migration of most of the Hindu upper-caste to India. The situation created more freedom (of mobility) for the lower (Hindu) artisan caste (Hasan, 2010). This enables them to migrate to urban areas such as Mithi, where they can earn based on their skills and develops social and human capital for their children and have access to better health and housing facilities (Hasan, 2010; Qurat-ul-Ann & Mirza, 2021).

5 Results and Discussion

5.1 Climate Extremes Events – Who Migrates and Why

The analysis shows that people are on the move due to several reasons and in different ways. The most common reason for migration is the loss of livelihoods due to natural calamities i.e., frequent floods and droughts which are common in the study areas. Moving with the whole family or sending male members to urban areas is the one way to deal with such adversaries. The most common economic losses that lead to displacement and migration in Muzaffargarh district are livestock loss, damage to businesses (shops, poultry sheds, kiosks, etc.) that were swept away in floods and loss of jobs and labour in the farms which destroyed due to floods, whereas cultivation was abandoned in Tharparkar districts due to intense and frequent droughts.

This was exacerbated by the government’s lack of preparedness and early warning. When floods occurred, people were unable to access roads; houses, fields, and schools were destroyed; livestock were lost; drinking water became contaminated; and it was difficult to move the disabled and elderly to safety. According to Rukhsana,Footnote 1 a women participant of FGDs from the Muzaffargarh district’s Ajab Arian area:

…All our houses were sunk (due to flood) and we (whole family including children) were taken out (from the village) through a truck. In ‘Taabay’ (the elevated place where most of the rescue camps were mostly established) we were sitting…our (women’s) honour was not safe there…there was no arrangement for ‘purdah’. how many days one can stay? So, we stayed there for fifteen days. Meanwhile, my husband got labour work in a mill, and we move (permanently) to ‘Rasoolabad’ (suburbs of Muzaffargarh city).

Most of the participants of focus group discussions in rural areas mentioned the impact of extreme climatic events on crop and livestock production. Mostly, the relationship is direct such as floods destroyed businesses, property and people that lead to different types of mobility patterns like displacement, and temporary or permanent migration. Such type of relationships is mentioned in climate-migration literature as fast-onset climate impacts on mobility pattern (see Cattaneo et al., 2019). Whereas, in some cases, the relationship is indirect that mainly due to slow-onset climate impacts which lead to a loss in (agriculture) productivity and profitability and turn lead to increase indebtedness of farmer and ultimately they have no other options to abandon agriculture and migrate elsewhere. Such a situation is less evident in Mazafargarh but prevalent in Mithi, Tharparkar, where frequent droughts causing acute water shortages for agriculture, livestock, and livelihoods. Kareem, (50), a farmer from Darelo Paro in Islamkot, Mithi said:

…During the famine I lost my farm job, and my animals were starving. Livestock fodder was scarce, and it was expensive to bring some from the barrage area (irrigated areas where canal water is available for cultivation). This situation affected my children’s education also.

Most of the migrant household member highlights that poor health and lack of health facilities, pursuing better education for children in urban areas, food insecurity, debt and poverty, and lack of infrastructure were also major reasons for their migration. Climate extremes also impact indirectly on public services delivery functions (such as water supply, education, and health facilities) as well as caused to decline in social relationships and support mechanisms in the study areas. This caused people to migrate elsewhere for better livelihood perspectives. Mubashir (36), one of the male participants of FGDs from Mithi, Tharparkar mentioned:

We migrated from the village due to unavailability of job or work, (drinking) water, hospital and education facilities that mainly affected due to drought. No one supports us, even relatives. Here (in destination areas) our children are getting an education and have good employment opportunities.

We find that climate-induced migration is largely common among landless farm labour in rural areas. The outcome of climate events i.e., floods or drought is the migration (as well as displacement) of rural small businesses and farm labour (see Mueller et al., 2014; Janjua, 2009). Climate events may displace landowner and landless in a similar manner but return to origin (rural) areas aftermath of floods or droughts are found more among landowners compared to landless and non-farm households. In most cases, migration (among landless farm labour and non-farm households) is initially carried out by one or more male family members, which is followed by whole family members once migrant member(s) are able to secure employment at the destination and manage finances for the whole family migration.

Moreover, our analysis also revealed that increasing food insecurity situation and debt-burden trigger migration due to frequent flood or drought conditions in the study areas. Rural landless and sharecroppers are most vulnerable during these conditions. The declining crop yields, farm incomes and abandoned agricultural lands under water-stressed conditions caused reduced farm labour requirements and wages. This not only increases food insecurity but also the financial resources of the rural poor in the study areas. Such circumstances compel rural landless and sharecroppers to take loans from landlords. However, when these households decided to migrate elsewhere in search of alternative livelihoods, they have to repay the loans to the landlords. Mostly, under these situations, the migrant families agreed on bonded contracts in which the landlord at the destination area pay-off family’s debt in return for hiring them for discounted wages. This situation further adds to the socio-economic vulnerabilities of migrant families. Rahim (35), a farmer from Darelo Paro village in Islamkot, Mithi described as:

We do not apply fertilisers to barren or water-stressed land because there is no guarantee that the seed will grow after fertilising this land.” Most farmers owe about PKR100,000 (USD 900) to the landowners on whose land they work. The only option under these stressful conditions is to abandon the land. Our landowner, on the other hand, stated that if we do not work on his land, we must return his money. So, we went to another landowner to borrow of PKR 150,000 (USD1350) to repay the first landowner.

5.2 Climate-Induced Displacement and Migration Typologies

In terms of migration typologies, the analysis reveals that rural-urban internal migration predominates in the study areas. People migrate from flood or drought-affected rural areas to other secure rural areas or urban centres. In Muzaffargarh, migration is, however, followed by displacement of the rural population due to floods. One or more members of the household migrated to cities or nearby towns to earn livelihoods and struggle to manage to finance for whole family migration. In this regard, the outcome of displacement and migration is largely based on migrants’ social and human capital, which defines the typology of migration i.e., either it is temporary, permanent or circular migration.

Also, migration is carried out by one or more members of the household. Whereas the close family member (such as parents, wife, and children) stayed in the (rural) origin areas. These left-behind family members mainly receive financial remittances that crucially support the daily living expenses and provide a safety net during time of hardship or climate hazards. The ‘migrant’ in this case has the intention to return home when enough financial resources are capitalized that are envisaged by the family for future well-being or situations when the migrant was not able to earn any longer due to old-age or loss of a job at the destination.

We also find a stepwise migration pattern in study areas. People who have enough financial and social support to move to adjacent local towns once they are displaced by floods or droughts. Due to frequent or megafloods, these adjacent areas are also vulnerable to floods. In these circumstances, families once displaced and migrated again move to more secure places which in most cases large cities. Hasnain (35), a migrant from Tibi Hussainabad in Muzaffargarh said:

…In 1992 we migrated to Rawaywala due to floods and moved again after the 2010 mega flood, migrating to Rasoolabad (a town near Muzaffargarh city). We then migrated to Sheikhupura (a large city near Lahore) after the 2014 flood…

In case of Tharparkar district, migration is primarily by rural-to-rural within or across the district. People migrate from flood-affected rural areas to other secure rural areas primarily because of their social networks and the support available to them, which is primarily based on kinship and close tribal relationships. Permanent migration from rural areas across Tharparkar to Mithi town and other urban centres such as Karachi, on the other hand, is increasing. The migration of landless farmers to other rural areas is difficult in terms of financing their journey, which is often done with their entire family and livestock. Migrant families’ mobility is frequently restricted by landlords with whom they have contracts to work on their farms.

We find that most of the migration is internal and permanent. People have no intention to return to the area of origin once they are established in (urban) destination areas. In Tharparkar, although migrants are well-settled in destination areas they do connect to their (rural) areas of origin. The connectivity is for either sowing of crops, business or managing social ties to their fellow left-behind villagers and relatives.

5.3 Climate-Induced Migration Outcomes – Threat or Opportunity?

Understanding migration outcomes in terms of increasing economic and social opportunities for migrants and their left-behind families as well as exploring remittances flows and usage are also necessary. Our findings suggest that migration has significantly improved the income of migrant families in destination areas. Although in some cases, migrant families mentioned difficulty in meeting daily household expenditures, however, showed agreement that their incomes are much better and, in some cases, it is four times multiplied compared to origin areas. Few migrant families are successful in establishing a small business or improving business connections for generating funds and sometimes get better jobs in multi-nationals, and access to microfinance and other government support programs such as the Benazir Income Support Program. In this way, migration helps to diversify income sources that enable them to educate their children and build better and secure houses in destination areas.

In terms of the level of satisfaction of access to basic services such as health care, water supply, shelter, privacy, sanitation, and food are mixed for migrants in destination (urban) areas. In the case of health care facilities, the worst situation is mentioned by migrant and their families at the destination as well as at origin areas. In urban areas, migrants faced issues of lack of access to proper health care due to the poor condition of the public hospital (more patients per doctor) and the unaffordability of private hospitals. Whereas, in rural areas, health care is either non-existent or inadequate as migrants’ left-behind family members also report a similar lack of satisfaction with health services as a migrant member(s) at the destination.

Our finding suggests that the flow of remittances to a left-behind family member is less evident during the initial period of migration. Migrant members are not able to send remittances due to a prolonged period of unemployment, low income, and high expenditure in destination areas. Which causes left-behind family members to face health and income risks. Our findings also pointed out that migrant members took loans to manage migration costs, so remittances are also used for such repayments, this significantly shrinks the economic well-being of left-behind family members. The left-behind family members also feel migrant absence and passed through psychological traumas.

Migrant member or households in destination areas show their satisfaction with regard to housing conditions. Social network support from friends and family causes people to feel better-off regarding housing as they mostly share relative’s houses (by paying rent) or relief camps which are monitored and managed by government institutions such as police and armed forces.

We find that the majority of respondents mentioned that they could not get any support either from the government or any other organization. The most pressing needs were food, drinking water, medicine and shelter which were mainly managed by utilizing their savings or selling valuables such as ornaments and livestock. The shelter provided by the government is mostly a small tent or a room in government buildings such as schools and Masjids. Sometimes migrants also get supported by family and friends on the relief camps and are offered rooms in their houses and support them to start a small business or to get a job/labour on daily wages.

Another important factor for migrants is the lack of trust between the local population and migrants. It makes it difficult for migrants to find a place to live or a room to rent. Furthermore, even if a migrant wishes to start a business in the destination area, it is extremely difficult to gain the trust of local suppliers in order to obtain goods on credit.

For instance, Ali Shah (35), who had permanently migrated to Muzaffargarh city, said:

In the 2010 floods, my tea hotel was completely destroyed, and I had no other way to support my family. I moved to Muzaffargarh city to earn an income, but I am now facing a lot of challenges finding suitable accommodation, setting up a business and earning some money to sustain my business and household expenditure.

Furthermore, we find that migrant households experienced lack of access to water, particularly for drinking in Tharparkar district. The lack of accessibility of water affects migrant families both at the destination and in the origin areas. People mostly drank bottled water, which is expensive and difficult to obtain. Women are particularly affected by climate-induced migration. For a migrant woman fleeing floods or drought, health is the most pressing concern. During the migration process, pregnant migrant women face a variety of mental and physical health issues. Migrant pregnant women are not only vulnerable while Women also share the consequence of unsuccessful migration movements and standby their family. Sakina, a women respondent of FGDs, Mithi, Tharparkar described as: ‘I worked in the field to harvest cowpea, and millet, which led to the loss of my 6 months’ pregnancy’.

6 Conclusion

Climate change impact on human society is evidently increasing with each passing year. The impact is particularly severe in rural areas of Pakistan, where about 132 million population is dependent upon climate-sensitive livelihoods. The well-being of households and communities is deeply linked to the sustainability of livelihood resources and strategies. We have shown that climate change as one of the important factors behind declining livelihood resources and strategies, particularly within rural community, which has a direct co-relation to people migrating in search of livelihood opportunities to other rural areas, cities, or provinces. In this regard, migration may potentially provide an alternate source of livelihood or survival strategy for the vulnerable population. Alternatively, we have also highlight climate-induced migration may increase many challenges for the poor, resourceless migrating families that exacerbates food insecurity, social oppression, and indebtedness. Climate-induced migration is an unpleasant phenomenon for women impacting their health, increasing their work burden and mental stresses.

We have shown that displaced rural communities were least prepared to cope with frequent floods and severe droughts. In origin areas, people lack training and knowledge of risks and have no information regarding the expected loss of life and livelihood assets. People have limited adaptive and response capabilities to face multiple challenges posed by climate change to their lives, livelihoods, and property. Moreover, institutional preparedness and capabilities are inadequate to counter the challenges posed by extreme climate events and their immediate and long-term impacts. Such circumstances compel vulnerable communities to migrate permanently under different migration patterns such as rural-to-rural, rural-to-urban, urban-to-urban, international, and seasonal migration.

In this regard, climate-induced migration poses many challenges for the (landless) poor, resourceless migrating families like food insecurity, social oppression, and indebtedness, particularly affecting women impacting their health, increasing their work burden and mental stress. Our evidence suggests that if proper public support is available then significant improvement in climate migrant families’ socio-economic conditions may occur over time. Migrant families can establish small businesses, improve business connections for generating finances, have better opportunities to get private and government jobs through improved access to microfinance and other government support programmes.

Our results highlight different climate-induced displacement and migration issues among stakeholder concerned, particularly, Ministry of Climate Change of Pakistan and can contribute ongoing process of national and provincial climate change adaptation planning. Some key recommendations include: (1) develop the risk assessment and monitoring capacities of provincial and local administration to identify location-specific climate change adaptation priorities; (2) focus on (internal) migration planning and management, considering the potential social and economic challenges and opportunities for the migrants and their families in areas of origin and destination; and (3) implement a migrants registration system across different administrative boundaries by the government to gain insights regarding internal migration flows and patterns for informed policy decisions and implementation. This would also help improve federal to local level institutional support for aid distribution and resettlement.

We recognise, however, that migration is a highly complex phenomenon. There are still significant uncertainties that this study cannot address, such as how climate change interacts with various social, economic, political, and demographic migration factors, not only defining broad migration patterns but also affecting the well-being of migrants and their families on a societal scale. Furthermore, it is critical to understand why some people (from the same social and economic class) do not migrate while others do during extreme weather events – a better understanding can provide an in-situ adaptation potential of rural populations in origin areas. Similarly, how vulnerable communities might experience migration outcomes coupled with climatic and non-climatic extremes such as COVID-19 pandemic.