Keywords

1 Overview

1.1 Objectives and Scope of This Chapter

The primary objective of this chapter is to draw together the diverse perspectives and narratives shared by the book’s authors who are leaders in their respective domains, and in so doing identify findings that can be instrumental in understanding the regional challenges and opportunities. There are very few publications that provide a consolidated picture of the Central and South Asian region; most literature focus on either subregion, thus missing some key learning opportunities. It is, therefore, critical that a comprehensive and synthetic overview of the book be provided in this chapter.

This chapter first and foremost focuses on the major regional processes that are of significance to the water, energy, food (WEF) nexus in Central and South Asian region: food insecurity, land degradation, energy insecurity, and gender inequities. These regional processes are closely inter-twined, a fact that becomes obvious as we unpack the operative and normative functioning of these processes. The chapter than collates the regional drivers behind these processes, which include climate change, urbanization, population growth, and more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. This listing of drivers of change is not surprising because the same have been observed in other regions of the world as well.

The chapter goes on to explores the regional opportunities to overcome the challenges embedded in the regional processes and their drivers, describing how the WEF nexus can provide a framing to solve problems. This segment of the chapter specifically analyzes the opportunities that pertain to regional trade, sharing of transboundary water resources, poverty reduction and inclusion, and development of shared early warning systems. The chapter concludes by attempting to forecast future scenarios that might unfold within the Central and South Asian region in the coming decades. These scenarios are influenced by the framing of global development objectives (in the form of United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, or the SDGs), the role of the international community, and a number of externalities that might influence the future of this region.

In terms of the presentation of information, the content of this chapter draws heavily and exclusively from the chapters within this book; whenever possible, the author or chapter being cited is referenced. If readers of this chapter wish to delve deeper into the specifics of a matter, they are directed to the corresponding chapters which provide the underlying data, a detailed data and information analysis, synthesis of prevailing scientific knowledge, and the cited sources for all pertinent information. To state the obvious, this chapter is not meant to be an exhaustive or all-inclusive summary of all the chapters; rather, it extracts ideas and information that support the overall narrative.

1.2 Regional Trends of Water Resources

The countries in the Central and South Asian region have vastly different environmental, social, economic, and political settings; although there is a significant commonality in history and trade. Akram et al. (Chap. 10) argue that the region now requires collective governance of its water, energy, and food resources to have greater overall impact in reaching development objectives.

This region presents a unique situation because it includes some of the least developed countries, and their economies are highly dependent on transboundary water resources. In particular, the availability of water resources has undergone a drastic change in the recent decades. For example, the annual water availability (surface water) per capita in India around 1950 was more than 5,000 m3/person and it is expected that by 2025 this figure will drop to 1,500 m3/person (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). Similarly, this indicator for Pakistan decreased from 5,260 m3/person in 1951 to 1,000 m3/person in 2016. By 2025, it is expected to drop further to 860 m3/person, which will mean Pakistan can be designated as a water scarce country. In Afghanistan, water availability per capita decreased from about 5,000 m3/person in 1962 to about 1,400 m3/person in 2014; this will further drop to 1,105 m3/person by 2025.

Rochholz et al. (Chap. 6) describe that water scarcity in Central Asian is going to be further exacerbated due to climate change. These changes in meltwater discharge will not only directly affect freshwater availability from large rivers, but also food availability, due to the strong dependency of agriculture on irrigation. The situation is somewhat different in South Asia, where countries receive significant amounts of rain through monsoon seasons, for which heavy rainfall events are forecasted to be of higher intensity and higher frequency. This situation in South Asian countries poses a much greater risk of flooding, which can be particularly dangerous in densely populated coastal areas (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Over the past decade, there has already been a higher frequency of extreme flood events and higher corresponding damages have been documented. Therefore, it becomes critical to deploy early-warning systems that are enabled with dissemination mechanisms and provide information on near-real time impacts of floods and droughts on food and energy provision (Zia, Chap. 5).

1.3 The Water–Energy Nexus

Notionally, the countries of Central and South Asia are rich in potential energy resources, whereas water scarcity prevails at different magnitudes. Therefore, it becomes critical that water and energy equation is balanced in a way that it directly contributes to their social, economic, and human development in a sustainable manner (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). A major intersection of the water and energy resources is in the form of hydropower generation, which is often couple with provisioning of drinking and irrigation water supplies.

Overall, the potential for hydropower in the region is grossly underutilized. For example, the Central Asian region so far uses only about 10% of its existing cost-effective hydropower potential and the share of hydropower in the total electricity generation in the region is just over 21% (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). The energy insecurity is discussed in greater detail in Sect. 12.2.3. It is important to point out that the construction of reservoirs for hydropower generation allows improved regulation of river flows over several years and seasonally. Such approaches can become part of the regional water security and sharing of resources for human and agricultural consumption. Additionally, generation of relatively inexpensive hydropower can reduce the reliance on non-renewable energy sources; currently, oil, natural gas, and coal are being used intensively electricity generation (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4).

1.4 The Food–Water Nexus

Climate change impacts on food availability are closely tied to water availability (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6); this correlation is robust, even when accounting for uncertainties in model simulations for exact regional temperature and precipitation development. Overall, agricultural production and the food sector tend to be the most significant consumer of water in the Central and South Asian region. For example, agriculture accounts for more than 90% of total water withdrawals in Pakistan (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). Irrigated agriculture and, consequently, water resources have always played an important role in the economic development of Pakistan and are likely to continue to do so in the future. Agriculture accounts for around one quarter of the country’s GDP and employs 44% of the labour force. Similarly, agriculture is also a major water consumer for India and plays an important role in the socio-economic development of the country. The agriculture sector employs about half of the workforce and accounts for about 15% of India’s GDP (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). The correlation between water insecurity and its impacts on food insecurity is discussed in detail in Sect. 12.2.1.

2 Major Regional Processes in Central and South Asia

2.1 Food Insecurity

There are clear indications at the global scale that climate change impacts are adversely affecting the agronomic yield (Lal, Chap. 2; Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). This finding is also true for the Central and South Asian region; a situation that is further exacerbated by wastage of food—which amounts to 30–40% of grains and even more for fruits and vegetables. This food insecurity hits women particularly hard; it is linked to poverty and is a major reason that women and girls experience unequal food insecurity (Mawani, Chap. 8). It can, therefore, be argued that collective, regional action is critical to addressing the cross-cutting issue of food and nutritional insecurity. These actions must mitigate the risk of declining agronomic productivity and aggravating soil degradation driven by climate change and inappropriate management practices for soil, crop, and water resources (Lal, Chap. 2).

The statistics for food insecurity in Central and South Asian region show some interesting trends, with the Central Asian countries faring better. The number of under-nourished people in Central Asia was 6.5 million 2005 and reduced to 2 million in 2019, with a further decrease projected during this decade (Lal, Chap. 2). Comparatively, the number of food-insecure people in the South Asian region decreased from 328 million in 2005 to about 258 million in 2019; this number is projected to fall further to about 204 million by 2030 (Lal, Chap. 2). It can be concluded that there is a significant trend of reducing the absolute number of undernourished people and increasing agricultural productivity, which can be contrasted by significant reduction in cropland area over the same period of time.

Lal (Chap. 2) outlines a number of strategies than can be adopted to achieve better nutritional and food security in the South and Central Asian region. These include the following approaches: further improving agricultural productivity; enhancing food distribution mechanisms and networks; enhancing access to food; and strengthening public/private sector partnership. For city dwellers, urban agriculture can contribute positively to achieving food security of urban households and assist in developing new livelihoods; sky farming based on tall glass buildings and recycling of gray and black water are among related innovations. Further, there is a need for transformation to climate-resilient and negative emission farming techniques and reversing the widespread problem of soil and land degradation (further discussed in Sect. 12.2.2).

2.2 Land Degradation

Land degradation is closely related to soil quality and its degradation, and is a major challenge on the horizon for the Central and South Asian region. Some of the most prominent drivers of soil degradation relate to agricultural practices in the region and include decline of soil structure together with crusting and compaction, accelerated wind and water erosion, excessive water withdrawals causing water contamination, depletion of soil organic matter and plant nutrients by extractive practices, rapid salinization, waterlogging, and acidification of soil caused by flood irrigation (Lal, Chap. 2).

Each of these processes can be addressed through system-wide and comprehensive management approaches (Lal, Chap. 2). Sustainable intensification involves strategies which enhance crop yield but reduce its negative environmental impacts. Similarly, the concept of eco-intensification focuses on enhancing efficient inputs and producing more from less. Some recommended management practices must also be supported in conjunction with intensification approaches: these include restoration of the soil organic matter content, rainwater harvesting, efficient use of water, and integrated soil fertility management. Further, such policies must discourage soil-destructive approaches such as in-field burning of crop residues, scalping of topsoil for brick making, using flood-based irrigation, puddling of soil followed by inundation of rice paddies, and overusing fertilizers.

Lal (Chap. 2) also identifies some emerging technological solutions that can effectively counter land degradation in Central and South Asia. Innovative solutions based on nanotechnology are readily available but will require development of corresponding structures for their implementation. For example, colloidal nano-silica can be used to enhance soil water storage and improve soil structure. Using zeolites as amendments can improve soil structure, enhance soil water storage, and improve fertilizer use efficiency (Lal, Chap. 2).

2.3 Energy Insecurity

Rahimzoda (Chap. 4) describes that the fossil fuel resources in Central and South Asian regions are unevenly distributed. Most countries in the region do not have significant oil and gas resources; for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, their coal resources are located in high mountain areas, which makes their extraction difficult and expensive. This situation points to: (a) a present dependency on imported fossil fuels, (b) a high level of energy insecurity because of fluctuations in the international fossil fuels market, and (c) numerous opportunities for introducing renewable energy sources. The most prominent among the renewable energy sources is hydropower—with available water resources and convenient geographical conditions (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4).

Presently, Central and South Asia countries are widely applying hydropower for energy production and regulation of river flow (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). However, such hydropower generation units are faced with some challenges. For example, changes in Central Asia’s river flow throughout the year poses difficulties for solving conflicts about water sharing between agriculture and hydropower generation, while increasing the risk of flooding. Similar risks are posed for the South Asian countries as well, plus the additional risk of prolonged heatwaves and droughts (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6).

Throughout the region, the use of hydropower in comparison to its potential for energy generation remains low (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). For example, Pakistan’s hydropower potential is 60,000 MW, but only about 9,700 MW has been developed so far; this hydropower generation accounts for about a quarter of Pakistan’s power generation needs with a vast majority still being produced via thermal power generation. In Afghanistan, the hydropower generation at 254 MW accounts for about half of the installed generation capacity, whereas the total peak demand in 2032 is projected to be about 3,500 MW. The hydropower potential is estimated at 148,700 MW; the country ranks 5th in the world in this regard. Hydropower generation in India accounts for about 10% of its overall energy generation.

2.4 Gender Inequities

The Central and South Asian constitute about a quarter of the global population, with women comprising half of the population. Women are stakeholders both as consumers and producers, besides being active agents of change (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). It is, therefore, essential to examine and ensure greater participation of women in policy planning and implementation around the nexus of water, energy, and food security. Their limited adaptive capacities and restricted access to resources arise from prevailing socio-economic inequalities, patriarchal culture, and gender stereotypes, which are manifested through differences in property rights, lack of employment, and unequal access to information and resources (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7; Mawani, Chap. 8). The constrained roles and undervalued positioning of women in resource governance and production, are hindrances to achieving gender equality in society.

These persevering inequities have meant that women in this region are disproportionately impacted by climate change, and these impacts show up in terms of heightened food insecurity (Mawani, Chap. 8). For example, the gendered impacts of these climate change manifestations on rural South Asian women include increased pressure to provide food for the family, consuming decreased quantities of food as well as eating poorer quality food in relation to men, increased domestic responsibilities, and greater health impacts (Mawani, Chap. 8).

Water stewardship is a key factor in the current gender-based inequities: Women and girls spend an estimated 200 million hours a day collecting water (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). In Asia, on a daily basis, women and children walk an average of 6 km to access water, which often times is not safe for human consumption. The economic cost of women’s unpaid work as water collectors is enormous, with the figure for India alone equivalent to a national loss of income of about $160 million (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7).

In many developing countries, women spend over an hour each day collecting fuel wood and water, and nearly four hours are spent cooking (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). Indoor air pollution from using combustible fuels for household energy caused 4.3 million deaths in 2012, with women and girls accounting for six out of every ten deaths. The proportion of rural households in Central and Southern Asia relying on solid fuels is as high as 89% (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7).

Food insecurity is a major element of the gendered inequities in Central and South Asia. Ironically, a large fraction of women in this region are engaged in the agricultural sector, with an increasing feminization of this sector (Mawani, Chap. 8). In South Asia, 69% of women are engaged in agriculture; this proportion ranges from 28% in Sri Lanka to a far higher 74% in Nepal, with more than 50% in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Bhutan (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). Conversely, Asia reports the highest gender-gap in terms of land holding by women. Female land ownership is 16.3% in Sri Lanka, 4.6% in Bangladesh, 12.4% in Kyrgyzstan, 8.1% in Nepal and 11.7% in India (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). Bhutan is the only country in where 70% of farmland is owned by women. Women participate in agriculture as unpaid or low paid seasonal labourers, without much recognition as agents of production and are therefore often left out of social protection systems (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7). Pregnancy and lactation further increase the impact of food insecurity on women, particularly among women who do not have an income (Mawani, Chap. 8).

Mawani (Chap. 8) argues that there are some clear pathways for improving gendered food and water security in this region, which would entail providing better access to education for girls, and targeted interventions relating to women’s livelihoods. Similarly, comprehensive sexuality education and family planning among men, boys, girls, and women, coupled with increasing awareness of the disproportionate burdens girls and women face are important in reducing water and food insecurity faced by women (Mawani, Chap. 8).

3 Drivers of Regional Processes in Central and South Asia

3.1 Climate Change

It is important to recognize that Central Asia with an area of about 4.0 million km2 and South Asia with about 6.9 million km2 cover about 7.3% of the Earth's terrestrial surface (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). The Central Asia region comprises different climate regimes, varying from arid deserts to mountain ranges with high precipitation rates; there is a strong influence of the Pamir and the Tien Shan Mountain ranges on the available water resources in Amu Darya and Syr Darya (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). The South Asian region has greater ecosystem diversity and comprises tropical and subtropical moist and dry broadleaf forests; tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas, and shrublands; deserts and xeric shrublands; and mangroves (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6).

For many regions of South and Central Asia, current climate change is marked by an increase in mean surface air temperature (i.e., 1.1–1.8 °C in South Asia and 0.7 °C in Central Asia). These temperature changes have been accompanied by more frequent warm days, while the numbers of cold days have decreased consistently (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Precipitation frequency and intensity in South Asia, especially in the tropical countries has changed towards more heavy rainfall events with decreased frequency of light rain events and extension of dry periods. Early season melting of snow and glaciers in high mountain areas of Asia affects the potential of the large rivers of South and Southeast Asia, such as Brahmaputra, Yellow, Yangtze, Indus, and Mekong, in particular to buffer water resources for drier seasons (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). The largest freshwater source of the arid Central Asia area, the Aral Sea, is likely to continue to shrink under decreasing inflow of tributary rivers, already endangered by increased water evaporation and precipitation changes.

Climate change forecasts indicate a robust temperature increase for the ocean surface, indicating a strong vulnerability of the ocean. This implies that the regional sea level rise for coastal countries in South Asia is likely to exceed the global mean (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Observations already indicate a yearly sea level rise of about 1.0 mm in the Bay of Bengal. While regional differences exist, sea level will rise at all coasts across South Asia and pose threats for human life, especially in densely populated areas. For example, computations show that a 1 m sea level rise would displace 7.1 million people in India (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Additional threats in coastal areas are salt-water intrusions into rivers and river-flooding under rising sea levels.

Rochholz et al. (Chap. 6) also offer a commentary on the state efforts in the Central and South Asian region to combat climate change, which primarily focus on mitigation and to a lesser extent on mitigation. The national adaptation plans outline the political strategies adopted, while outlining the existing difficulties that prohibit nationwide efforts towards implementation of these adaptation plans. The prohibiting factors include the lack of widespread financial support and lack of integration of adaptation into climate change policies (in addition to mitigation) or the lack of clear institutional structures to initiate and supervise adaptation projects.

3.2 Urbanization

Rapid urbanization and increases in the average income in the Central and South Asian region have resulted in the growing use of energy and consumption that exceeds basic needs, even causing food-, water-, and energy-wastage (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1). For most of the largest and fastest growing urban centres in the region the supply of food, energy, and water resources is dependent on rural areas and often on transboundary trade. It is argued that the larger the scale of urbanization, the larger its environmental footprint can be found for the surrounding area; such enhanced ecological footprints can cause an increase in natural habitat loss via encroachment of agricultural ecosystems into natural places.

Air quality degradation has emerged as a major side-effect of urbanization, which is exacerbated further by the burning of agricultural by-products, in addition to vehicular emissions and dust (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1). For example, New Delhi counts as one of the most air-polluted cities in the world. The water-demand of urban places is frequently supplied by water resources further away from the cities, such as dams, rivers, and aquifers, causing significant and ecologically noticeable pressure on the water-source.

Adeel and Böer (Chap. 1) argue that it is very important to implement measures that aim at increasing the efficiency of urbanization and land use, including via good infrastructure planning that supports efficient use of energy, water, and food, considering waste reduction, forest conservation and restoration, as well as evidence-based ecosystem management.

3.3 Population Growth

Rochholz et al. (Chap. 6) point out that there are considerable differences in the demographic and socio-economic character between Central Asia and South Asia. Central Asia is sparsely populated (18.4 person/km2) with primarily small differences between countries, for example, Kazakhstan (6.8 person/km2) and Uzbekistan (75 person/km2). In contrast, South Asia is one of the most densely populated regions worldwide, with a population density of about 278.9 person/km2; where countries such as India, Bangladesh, and the Maldives face a particularly high population pressure (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). In addition, large socio-economic inequalities, not only between countries but also within individual countries, affect the vulnerability and adaptive capacities to projected climate change.

Further, Rahimzoda (Chap. 4) points out that population growth in the region will likely continue in the future. It is expected that the population of Central Asian countries will reach 83.8 million by 2030 and 100.25 million by 2050. In the same timeframe, Afghanistan is expected to reach 48.1 and 64.7 million; Pakistan 262.96 and 338.01 million; India, 1.50 and 1.64 billion, respectively. According to these estimates, India will surpass China in terms of population by 2027 (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4).

3.4 The COVID-19 Pandemic and Related Health Crises

The COVID-19 pandemic started in China in November 2019 and caused the step-by-step partial or complete lock-down of countries around the world. It has caused global havoc and the Central and South Asian region has not been immune to its impacts on the economy, public health, and social structures (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1). The United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank have projected that COVID-19 will increase both income and multidimensional poverty, as well as exclusion and inequality (Tiwari, Chap. 9). It can be argued that the COVID-19 pandemic threatens many of the development gains already achieved. With a prolonged crisis it is likely that children from vulnerable households will be out of school and/or become undernourished due to lack of adequate nutrition. This could push those households into multidimensional poverty (Tiwari, Chap. 9).

Mawani (Chap. 8) argues that the COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted women generally, and some groups of women more specifically. It exacerbated some long-standing inequalities within households in consumption of nutritious food, and the higher incidence of malnutrition and poor health associated with these patterns. There is also evidence of increase in violence against women across South Asia, with over 37% women reporting having experienced intimate partner violence (Mawani, Chap. 8). The uneven impacts of pandemics on women stem from enduring patterns of economic and food insecurity, precarious employment, gendered violence, unpaid care work, and poor access to healthcare.

4 Major Opportunities in Central and South Asia

4.1 Regional Trade Corridors and Geopolitical Considerations

Energy-based trading has great potential in the Central and South Asian region, where a number of energy corridors have been discussed, primarily meant to export oil and natural gas from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to rest of the of the world (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1). A typical example of such a corridor is the gas pipeline project called the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, although this project has been marred because of the uncertainties surrounding natural gas supply in Turkmenistan, the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, and the escalating political tensions between India and Pakistan (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1).

The CASA-1000 project, that intends to connect the Central and South Asian countries with a 1,300 MW high-voltage power transmission line, is another energy sector initiative. Through CASA-1000 the surplus electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will be transmitted to energy-demanding Pakistan and Afghanistan during the summer (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4); this project was initiated by the World Bank and is currently being implemented.

In terms of general regional trading opportunities, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) offers a platform for infrastructure and economic development, which can in turn facilitate regional trade (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1). Because of China’s immediate proximity to the Central and South Asian region, the BRI has interlinkages to essentially all the countries in that region. Given the scale of China’s economic investments, the potential impacts on the developing and intermediate economies in the Central and South Asian region can be very significant. An ongoing analysis of the BRI’s influence on the WEF nexus is therefore critical.

4.2 Sharing of Transboundary Water Resources

An analysis of the status of renewable freshwater resources in the Central and South Asia region suggests that the annual renewable water resources stand at 1,173 m3 per capita, which indicates that the region does not have sufficient water resources—that is, less than 1,700 m3 per capita, a universal threshold value for water scarcity (Qadir, Chap. 3). The water resources are further expected to decrease to 991 m3 per capita by 2030 and 853 m3 per capita by 2050.

It can, therefore, be argued that securing water resources and ensuring equitable management of water resources in the Central and South Asian region urgently requires transnational efforts (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Such efforts must include exchange of hydrological data, forecasting and flood management, joint research, control and monitoring of water resources, development and implementation of joint multi-purpose projects, and allocation and management of water resources (Rahimzoda, Chap. 4). While five different countries, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan depend on the water resources of Syr Darya, four countries are involved in water management of the Indus and Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basins: Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan (Qadir, Chap. 3). However, such sharing of water resources is not without its challenges. Current efforts in Central Asia to manage water-resource demands in the Syr Darya basin reveal disputes between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and will become more complicated with decreasing water resources under climate change (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6).

In view of looming water scarcity, recycling and reusing ‘used water’ become more crucial in water-scarce areas (Qadir, Chap. 3). Currently, 32.8 billion m3 of municipal wastewater are produced annually across the Central and South Asia region. Of this volume, 10.2 billion m3 of wastewater are collected, i.e., 31% of the wastewater produced (Qadir, Chap. 3). The release of such large quantities of untreated wastewater carries health and environmental impacts. Importantly, however, there is a missed opportunity of not capturing and reusing the valuable resources—water, nutrients, and energy—embedded in wastewater. The scope of harnessing the potential of unconventional water resources varies in the region and depends on the water needs for purposes and associated policy and institutional support, human resources, and scale of investments required.

Qadir (Chap. 3) argues that there is a need for a radical rethinking of the public policy agenda by prioritizing water conservation, water recycling, and reuse; ensuring sustainable water resources augmentation; and supporting productivity enhancement of available land and water resources, particularly those underperforming. Skilled professionals, supportive institutions, and strengthening institutional collaborations are the key to support the implementation of such policy actions.

4.3 Poverty Reduction and Inclusion

It is important to point out that poverty is a complex, multidimensional phenomenon that encompasses both income and non-income deprivations (Tiwari, Chap. 9). That means various non-income deprivations can also affect people’s well-being; these include inadequate education, lack of health care, low-quality housing, lack of water, sanitation, and energy, or working in a hazardous environment. Extreme poverty and vulnerability remain a stark reality in the Central and South Asian region (Tiwari, Chap. 9). With modest economic growth, the two sub-regions have made progress on poverty reduction and human development, but remain highly vulnerable.

A key measure of achievement against poverty reduction is the Human Development Index (HDI), which presents a cumulative picture of achievements in three key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, access to knowledge and a decent standard of living (Tiwari, Chap. 9). The 2020 Human Development Report presents the HDI ranking, which varies widely across the 13 countries of Central and South Asia. In terms of this HDI ranking, the Central and South Asian region spans a large spectrum: Kazakhstan stands at the 51st, with Afghanistan at the 169th position out of 189 countries and territories. Overall, Kazakhstan lies in the Very High Human Development Group, and all other countries have high or medium levels of development, excluding Afghanistan. Overall, the Central Asian countries have a higher level of human development, whereas the South Asian countries are making faster progress in poverty reduction (Tiwari, Chap. 9).

Promoting inclusion requires a holistic approach addressing multiple inequalities and exclusions. Tiwari (Chap. 9) argues that progressively achieving and sustaining income growth of the bottom 40% of the population at a rate higher than the national average will help address exclusion. Empowering the poor and deprived also requires building other forms of human capabilities like food and nutrition, education, housing, and other services including energy and water. Similarly, developing social protections is an important instrument to reduce poverty, inequality, and exclusion (Tiwari, Chap. 9).

4.4 Shared Early Warning Systems

In the Central and South Asian region heavy weather events have significantly increased in frequency, duration, and strength in the past decades, highlighting the need for reliable climate predictions for the near and distant future (Zia, Chap. 5; Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). There remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the projection of the changing frequencies and intensities of these events at multiple scales (Zia, Chap. 5). This uncertainty about changes in extreme events hinders local- to regional-scale efforts points to the need for adequately incorporating the risk from extreme events in the decision-making processes of critical actors engaged in the production and consumption of food, energy, and water.

In general, early warning systems are established to mitigate hazards and can act on a multitude of temporal and spatial scales (Zia, Chap. 5). The temporal scales of lead times can potentially range from minutes in the case of earthquakes and tsunamis, to hours in the event of river flooding, and often months in the case of drought. This broad range of temporal scales—from hours to decades—must be incorporated into any early warning systems that deal with WEF nexus (Zia, Chap. 5). Zia (Chap. 5) further posits that deployment and continual improvement of such early warning systems may enhance stakeholder understanding of nexus interactions, couplings, and processes, further facilitating the understanding of social and ecological risks. Short- to medium-term forecasts can be used by policy makers, managers, and citizens, whereas long-term forecasts are more suited to strategic investments and related decision making. As Asim (Chap. 5) states, given the novelty of Nexus-EWS as an emergent concept, a variety of fragmented early warning systems are deployed at various scales, community to sub-national to national to transboundary systems. These fragmented EWS do not necessarily account for the nexus, rather the EWS are operational in separate domains, e.g., flood early warning systems, drought early warning systems, and famine early warning systems. In 2010, NASA and US-AID SERVIR program was expanded to Hindu Kush Himalaya, covering most of the mountainous terrain in the Central and South Asia.

It is important to reduce the level of fragmentation often encountered in various domains—notably the divergence between flood early warning systems, drought early warning systems, and famine early warning systems (Zia, Chap. 5). Effective design and deployment such integrated early warning systems in Central and South Asian region faces considerable scientific and technological challenges. The most significant challenge, by far, is the lack of cooperation between a number of countries in data sharing; narrow geopolitical and compartmentalized policy goals that tend towards securitization of water, energy, and food resources hamper scientific and technological cooperation (Zia, Chap. 5). Utilization of open-sourced satellite data can play a role in reducing the fragmentation of early warning systems. This outcome can be achieved if the traditional securitization approaches are relaxed towards greater flexibility in scientific and technological cooperation in transboundary river basins (Zia, Chap. 5).

5 Future Directions

5.1 Using the SDG Framework

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adapted by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015 present the global roadmap for addressing economic, social, and environmental challenges facing the world. The various SDG targets and indicators have a bearing on the WEF nexus, and require interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral efforts (Adeel and Böer, Chap. 1; Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Akram et al. (Chap. 10) posit that a WEF nexus framework provides a holistic approach for addressing the disconnect between the three sectors and address multiple SDG targets.

At present, the implementation of SDG targets remains generally deficient in the Central and South Asian region (Rochholz et al., Chap. 6). Analysis based on national reporting indicates that Central Asian countries implemented the SDGs better than South Asian countries (average country rank 75 compared to 102). For example, Kyrgyzstan performed best in the region, ranking 52nd out of 166 countries rated. Overall, the regions’ commitment to take effective climate action (SDG 13) and achieve the land degradation neutrality (SDG 15) do not appear to be on track to achieve the respective targets by 2030 (Lal, Chap. 2). Similarly, stronger investments in agriculture and related transformational changes in policies are needed to achieve SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) (Lal, Chap. 2). Equally, SDG 5 (Gender Equality) is a touchstone and crucial for the sustainable transition and transformation to achieve other SDGs, particularly those linked with water, energy, and food security (Pandey and Midha, Chap. 7).

Akram et al. (Chap. 10) have identified the major roadblocks in implementation of the SDG targets related to the WEF nexus. These roadblocks include: the limited availability of reliable data which weakens evidence-based decision-making; lack of awareness of the benefits of using the nexus approach by relevant stakeholders; negative externalities due to low or no pricing of water and energy use in the Central and South Asian region; and, inadequate coordination between relevant stakeholders because they perceive the transaction costs of coordination to be higher than their benefits.

Mobilizing adequate finances for successful SDG implementation also remains a major challenge (Akram et al., Chap. 10). The finances required for the implementation of SDGs fall in the range of USD 5–7 trillion per year, including USD 3.9 trillion per year for basic infrastructure in developing countries. Analysis by Akram et al. (Chap. 10) shows an annual gap in investments of about $2.5 trillion to meet the SDGs objectives, a major portion of which needs to go towards water, energy, and food security and can be translated into future financial savings. Importantly, the investment requirement of this scale is not feasible under constrained public spending or Official Development Assistance (ODA). Private financing needs to be triggered to fill the financial gap, and Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) have the potential to attract these additional resources (Akram et al., Chap. 10).

To overcome these challenges, Akram et al. (Chap. 10) proposes that a more comprehensive and integrated strategic planning for operationalizing synergies and minimizing trade-offs in the WEF nexus is needed. Doing so will help the Central and South Asian region achieve some significant co-benefits. Therefore, this requires strengthening institutional coordination for mainstreaming SDGs within countries. There is also a need for regional collaboration and developing approaches and policies than can overcome any political inertia and lack of trust between countries.

5.2 Potential for Cooperation or Conflict Prevention?

Lone (Chap. 11) describes that human security involves the management of five key resources: land, energy, food, water, and minerals, and a zero-sum approach to these resources can result in international conflicts. The need for regional cooperation is underlined because of some geopolitical factors that give the region strategic significance, including the involvement of three nuclear powers (China, India, and Pakistan). The distribution of water, energy, and food resources necessary for the countries in the region to function properly are not distributed along the lines of international boundaries. This situation points to a clear need to address these issues coherently as potential flashpoints exist in the Central and South Asian region (Lone, Chap. 11).

The WEF nexus approach generally advocates cooperation over shared resources at domestic, regional, and international levels, particularly because there is significant positive correlation between security of these resources and political stability (Lone, Chap. 11). The combination of increasing demand and increasing scarcity, climate change, urbanization trends, poverty, societal inequities, and the transboundary nature of key resources show the need for a coherent and cooperative approach to achieve regional peace and stability (Lone, Chap. 11).

Akram et al. (Chap. 10) argue that if Central and South Asian countries choose to cooperate and manage their transboundary resources in the framework of the WEF nexus, it will result in the economic benefit to all the nations sharing these resources. There is also growing evidence that the river basins that constitute the most contentious aspect of the resource nexus can be managed to provide maximum economic benefits for all nations in the region. Progress can be made by studying existing policy frameworks and making recommendations based on the nexus approach framed through the SDGs to achieve peace, stability, and sustainable development (Lone, Chap. 11). Multi-stakeholder platforms, established through regional cooperation mechanisms, can be used to link scientific expertise to policy and societal understanding, and the development of public sector (including public institutions, politicians, and legislators) alongside the private sector and civil society and, where relevant, agencies dispensing foreign aid (Lone, Chap. 11).

5.3 Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Outlook for the Coming decades

The diversity of perspectives and approaches encapsulated in this book paint a picture that straddles hope and optimism on the one hand, and adverse trends on the other hand can lead to pessimistic conclusions about the state of water, energy, and food resources in the Central and South Asian region. It is indeed challenging to reach definitive conclusions about this topic. The diversity of processes and the underlying drivers have been discussed in this chapter, in view of the contributions made by individual chapters. A number of externalities, such as the geopolitical considerations described by Adeel and Böer (Chap. 1), also play a significant role and will continue to torque any outcomes related to the nexus.

Collectively viewing the trends, it is reasonable to argue that there are some solid reasons for optimism. Those reasons are briefly summarized as follows. First, the economic and political benefits for a shared and holistic management of water, energy, and food resources far outweigh any costs—real or perceived—accrued by following a securitized approach. Second, recent events—such as the COVID-19 pandemic, or the withdrawal of United States’ forces from Afghanistan, or the Ukraine–Russia conflict—have shown that historical geopolitical consideration can be set aside to achieve outcomes of common interest. Third, the political leadership in the region has shown that it can come together to take bold action of challenges that are perceived to be a common threat. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a $46 billion initiative as part of the larger Belt and Road Initiative, is an example of such decision making. CASA-1000 energy-sharing initiative is yet another example.