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Notes
- 1.
This chapter was elaborated for this collective book. It is based on ongoing and previous research, that has been partly published (Sonnleitner 2020). Methodologically, it relies on case studies, on the pre-electoral survey performed by Berumen and Ipsos in June 2018 and on spatial analysis at the level of the 32 states and the 300 federal legislative districts. The survey is available at: https://www.ine.mx/voto-y-elecciones/encuestas-electorales/elecciones-federales-ordinarias-2017-2018-estudios-entregados/berumen-2/ (last consulted: May 20, 2019). For statistical analysis we use the official results published by the electoral authorities available at: http://www.ine.mx/voto-y-elecciones/resultados-electorales/ (last consulted: July 17, 2021). Enhancements for this chapter are available online and include maps of the emerging Mexican electoral geography, additional figures and analysis on volatility and vote transfers.
- 2.
Juntos Haremos Historia was formed by MORENA, the Partido del Trabajo [Labor Party, PT] and the Partido Encuentro Social [Social Encounter Party, PES]. POR MÉXICO AL FRENTE comprised of the Partido de Acción Nacional [National Action Party, PAN], Movimiento Ciudadano [Citizen’s Movement, MC] and the Partido de la Revolución Democrática [Party of the Democratic Revolution, PRD]. TODOS POR MÉXICO consisted of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional [Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI], the Partido Verde Ecologista de México [Green Party of Mexico, PVEM] and the Nueva Alianza [New Alliance, PANAL].
- 3.
In the media, it is commonly said that AMLO won the presidential election “with 53% of the vote”. As summarized in Table 1, he obtained 30 million votes in 2018, that is, 53.2% of the total votes and 54.8% of the valid votes cast. In this chapter we distinguish between the two and privilege the use of valid vote percentages, as is customary in academic electoral analysis.
- 4.
We add the averages of the PRI, the PAN and the PRD in the four federal legislative elections held between 1997 and 2006, during the peak of the transitional tri-partisan system. As very few Mexicans know the candidates competing for deputies, the results of these elections provide a good approximation of the structural strength of the parties. Since 2009 we consider the results both of parties and coalitions, in the elections for senators (“S”), federal deputies (“D”) and the presidency (“P”). This allows us to visualize the magnitude of split-ticket voting between these different types of elections. We report the results recorded by each party separately (awarding them their share of votes for coalitions), as well as the sums obtained by the alliances (“-Al”), to observe the effects of coalition strategies.
- 5.
The shifting sociological composition of MORENA has been mainly studied through public opinion polls (Aguilar 2019; Moreno 2019; Buendía & Márquez 2019). In this chapter, we focus on its socio-territorial transformations, through election results aggregated at the level of the 32 States and the 300 federal districts.
- 6.
Electoral volatility and vote transfers are analyzed in further details in this chapter’s online enhancements.
- 7.
Map 8.1 was constructed using an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC). This method groups the territorial units minimizing the internal variance of the averages of each category, while maximizing their differentiation with respect to the rest of the categories. This makes it possible to cluster the most similar and the most different cases, situating the primary logics of their territorial distribution and borders (Minvielle & Souiah 2003: 61–82). For further analysis of Mexico’s new electoral geography, see the chapter’s enhancement online.
- 8.
According to the series of pre-election polls conducted by Alejandro Moreno (2019) for the “Universal” newspaper and by Jorge Buendía’s polling firm, AMLO’s advantage was less than ten points until February 2018, and only grew when Ricardo Anaya was publicly accused of money laundering by the Federal Attorney General’s Office on Februrary 21, 2018, reaching 18 points by the end of March (Buendía & Márquez 2019).
- 9.
https://www.ieepuebla.org.mx/ (last consulted June 14, 2022).
- 10.
https://www.ieebcs.org.mx/ (last consulted June 14, 2022).
- 11.
http://www.iec.org.mx/ (last consulted June 14, 2022).
- 12.
http://www.ieehidalgo.org.mx/ (last consulted June 14, 2022).
- 13.
Phrased as follows: “Do you or do you not agree that the pertinent actions be carried out in accordance with the constitutional and legal framework to undertake a process of clarification of the political decisions made in recent years by political actors, aimed at guaranteeing justice and the rights of potential victims?”.
- 14.
Phrased as follows: “Do you agree that the mandate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, should be revoked due to a loss of confidence or that he remains in the Presidency of the Republic until the end of his term?”.
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Sonnleitner, W. (2023). Mexico’s 2018 Tsunami-Alternation: Change and Continuities Following the Collapse of the Transitional Three-Party System. In: Dabène, O. (eds) Latin America’s Pendular Politics. Studies of the Americas. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26761-1_8
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