Abstract
The victory of Alberto Fernández in the presidential elections inaugurated the fifth cycle of political alternation in Argentina since the transition to democracy in 1983. While the 2015 elections were marked by the unprecedented arrival in power of a centre-right political force, four years later, and for the first time in thirty-six years of democratic stability, an incumbent president failed his re-election project and a non-Peronist force had to give up power.
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Notes
- 1.
- 2.
We do not forget López Obrador’s victory in Mexico in 2018. However, the historical cycle in this country was different from the regional tendency as Mexico was not part of the cases included in the so-called “left turn”.
- 3.
Only for the examination of the degree of alternation and its temporality. For the study of the ideological dimension, the analysis will focus on presidential elections.
- 4.
Our database is composed of the Manifesto Project’s analysis of electoral platforms and an audio-visual corpus of the electoral campaign.
- 5.
According to the indicators presented in the introduction of this collective work.
- 6.
A description of the Argentine political regime is presented in the web site the OPALC attached to this work.
- 7.
Other institutional factors have also to be taken into account, such as the type of electoral system.
- 8.
In 2015 presidential elections and the 2017 legislative elections, the electoral front led by President Macri “Cambiemos included PRO, the Civic Coalition and the Radical Civic Union.
- 9.
Under the hegemony of Kirchnerism, the Peronism lost in the 2009 and 2013 (mid-term elections) and in the 2015 (presidential elections).
- 10.
Macri’s positive image stood at 52, 8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 (Rouvier & Asociados, April 2019).
- 11.
To a detail of a fiscal deficit evolution, see Graphic 1 on the Appendix (OPALC Web Site).
- 12.
The agreement was the largest loan in the IMF's history, amounting to $57.1 billion.
- 13.
To a detail of GDP evolution, see Graphic 2 on the Appendix (OPALC Web Site).
- 14.
To a detail of the augmentation of poverty and indigence, see graphic 3 on the Appendix (OPALC Web Site).
- 15.
National Poll, 1.844 cases, Pollster Circuitos, Clarín, April 2019.
- 16.
Rouvier &. Asociados, national report, April 2019, p. 5.
- 17.
CFK had 33.4% of voting intentions in April, ahead of Mauricio Macri who had 24.9% (Rouvier &. Asociados, national report, April 2019).
- 18.
The phrase belongs to Alberto Fernández (source: Perfil, 7/2/2018).
- 19.
CFK had an important and consolidated negative image that was always above 50% between the end of her mandate, where it reached 57.2%, and April 2019, where it reached 57% (Rouvier & Asociados, National Newsletter, April 2019).
- 20.
This division was public presented as a “rift” that recovers and re-signifies the game of founding oppositions of the Argentine political regime, principally the decisive antagonism between Peronism and anti-Peronism. Without reaching the extremes of other eras, Argentina's political space was structured around two opposing sides in a battleground in which intolerance nullified any possibility of coexistence and plural expression. This strategy of power was used by Kirchnerism and Macrism to create intense minorities of loyal supporters limiting their hegemonic capacity.
- 21.
Infobae, 28/6/2018.
- 22.
Le Monde Diplomatique, June 2018.
- 23.
Mainly the two currents of the Central de los Trabajadores Argentinos (CTA) and the Confederación General de Trabajo (CGT).
- 24.
At the national level, this front brings together the Propuesta Republicana (PRO), the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), the Coalición Cívica and local parties’ representations.
- 25.
Source selection of public speeches, Audio-visual Corpus, Electoral Campaign, 2019. A detail of the Corpus composition is presented on the Appendix (OPALC Web Site).
- 26.
Electoral Program, FdT, p. 3.
- 27.
To detail of P.A.S.O results see Table 1 on the Appendix (Web site OPALC).
- 28.
A detail of the results of this electoral cycle is presented on the Appendix Graphic 4 (OPALC Web Site).
- 29.
For a detail, see map 1 on the Appendix (OPALC Web Site).
- 30.
For a detail of the vote of FdT and JC in the difference province, see Table 2 in the Annexes.
- 31.
The Province of Buenos Aires has 13,185,036 voters, 37% of the total number of eligible voters nationwide.
- 32.
In the first four provinces, we can find the most dynamic and socio-economically rich agricultural areas.
- 33.
Without claiming to be exhaustive, we can illustrate this by considering that in the municipalities with this voter profile, for example, in the City of Buenos Aires (municipalities 13, 14 and 6) and in the “Conurbano Bonaerense” (municipalities of San Isidro and Vicente López) the formula presided over by Fernández obtained 81,169 more votes than the Frente para la Victoria (FPV) achieved in the 2015 presidential elections. Source: Table 3 (Appendix OPALC Web Site).
- 34.
Being greater than 3 according to the indicators presented in the introduction to this collective work.
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Rodríguez, D. (2023). Polarization, Depolarization, and (Re)polarization: The 2019 Electoral Process and a New Alternation in Argentine Democracy. In: Dabène, O. (eds) Latin America’s Pendular Politics. Studies of the Americas. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26761-1_7
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