Abstract
This chapter models the likely epidemiological dissemination of the Plague of Cyprian, which we believe occurred largely through sea and riverine travel. Shorter duration overland travel also likely played a role. We begin to examine the modeled dynamics of urban outbreaks through interrogation of modern epidemiology’s basic reproduction number (R0). From there, we move to examine the likely epidemiological roles played by two ubiquitous third century urban imperial institutions, the Roman baths and the Greco-Roman medical system.
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Orsag, M., McKinney, A.E., Reeder, D.M. (2023). Guardrail Modeling: Geographical Dissemination Pathways and the Urban Epidemiological Setting. In: Interdisciplinary Insights from the Plague of Cyprian. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26094-0_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26094-0_7
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