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The Dynamics of Diabetes Prevalence, Morbidity, and Mortality

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Abstract

Diabetes mellitus has caught the attention of the world as a major public health problem due to the explosive increases in prevalence that have occurred, affecting virtually all regions of the world and, within regions, affecting all age and demographic subgroups and across the full range of socioeconomic status (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), Lancet 387:1513–30, 2016; Zimmet et al., Nature, 414:782–7, 2001; https://www.diabetesatlas.org/). The estimated global prevalence for 2021 is 536 million, with 10.8% of men and 10.2% of women affected. The highest regional prevalence was registered in the Middle Eastern and North African region (18.1%), while the lowest was in the African region (5.3%). The countries with the highest prevalence were Pakistan (30.8%), French Polynesia (25.2%), and Kuwait (24.9%) (https://www.diabetesatlas.org/). This growth has included both type 1 and type 2 diabetes, although between 90 and 95% of the cases and the predominant increase in prevalence have been driven by type 2 cases (Menke et al., Epidemiology, 24:773–4, 2013). Dozens of individual-level genetic and environmental factors have been prospectively associated with type 2 diabetes, but the increases in prevalence in most societies have likely been driven by a smaller set of trends, including the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, declining levels of physical activity, poor-quality carbohydrate in our diets, sugary drinks, increased fast food and portion sizes, aging and a longer lifespan, and increasingly diverse socioeconomics (Ley et al., Diabetes in America, 2018; Gregg, Diabetes Care, 40:1289–97, 2017). There is also increasing recognition of heterogeneity in diabetes types, even within the classic categories of type 2 and type 1 diabetes, that likely have different patterns of risk factors that may further vary by region and context (Tuomi et al., Lancet, 383:1084–94, 2014).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Medicine, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Danilo de Paula & Paula Bracco

  2. Faculty of Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK

    Edward W. Gregg

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  1. Danilo de Paula
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  2. Paula Bracco
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  3. Edward W. Gregg
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Correspondence to Edward W. Gregg .

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  1. Mexico City, Mexico

    Joel Rodriguez-Saldana

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de Paula, D., Bracco, P., Gregg, E.W. (2023). The Dynamics of Diabetes Prevalence, Morbidity, and Mortality. In: Rodriguez-Saldana, J. (eds) The Diabetes Textbook. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25519-9_2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25519-9_2

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