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Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Vaccination Against Chickenpox Based on the Results of Simulation Modeling

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High-Performance Computing Systems and Technologies in Scientific Research, Automation of Control and Production (HPCST 2022)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1733))

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Abstract

Chickenpox is one of the most widespread diseases in the world. Since the domestic vaccine has not been developed at present, and the purchase of an imported vaccine for routine vaccination is an expensive investment of the state, there is a need to assess the epidemiological and socio-economic effectiveness of vaccination based on the results of simulation modeling. This article describes the implementation of a simulation model of the spread of chickenpox in the population as a system for managing and strategic planning of vaccination against the Varicella Zoster virus. An algorithm for computer simulation of the spread of chicken pox with the features of various types of vaccination is given. A comparative analysis of the results obtained in the process of constructing the model with real medical data was carried out. The software implementation of the model was carried out in the high-level programming language Python. To determine the parameters of the simulation model, statistical data on the incidence of chickenpox in the Altai Territory for 2008–2018 were used. Such a system of vaccine prevention management allows, without long-term medical examinations and expensive procedures, to identify and, in particular, determine the best strategy for vaccination in a fairly short period of time. As a result of modeling, it was possible to identify the most optimal strategy for vaccination against the varicella-zoster virus in the Altai Territory, build graphs of the dynamics of the spread of the virus, reflecting the number of cases during one of the types of vaccination and without such procedures. It allowed one to evaluate the epidemiological and socio-economic efficiency of vaccination programs against chickenpox for children in the Altai Territory. Thus, computer technologies and computer modeling, a comprehensive computational study of the dynamics of the development of various diseases can help medical workers determine the optimal strategy in the treatment of diseases, as well as predict its consequences.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported in the framework of “Priority-2030” Program by Altai State University.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Altai State University, Lenin Avenue 61, 656049, Barnaul, Russia

    Anton V. Kulshin, Denis Yu. Kozlov & Lyubov A. Khvorova

  2. Altai State Medical University, Papanintsev Street 126, 656031, Barnaul, Russia

    Ekaterina A. Peredelskaya & Tatyana V. Safyanova

Authors
  1. Anton V. Kulshin
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  2. Denis Yu. Kozlov
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  3. Ekaterina A. Peredelskaya
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  4. Lyubov A. Khvorova
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  5. Tatyana V. Safyanova
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Lyubov A. Khvorova .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Altai State University, Barnaul, Russia

    Vladimir Jordan

  2. MIREA - Russian Technological University, Moscow, Russia

    Ilya Tarasov

  3. Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia

    Ella Shurina

  4. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia

    Nikolay Filimonov

  5. Tomsk State University of Control Systems and Radio-Electronics, Tomsk, Russia

    Vladimir Faerman

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Kulshin, A.V., Kozlov, D.Y., Peredelskaya, E.A., Khvorova, L.A., Safyanova, T.V. (2023). Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Vaccination Against Chickenpox Based on the Results of Simulation Modeling. In: Jordan, V., Tarasov, I., Shurina, E., Filimonov, N., Faerman, V. (eds) High-Performance Computing Systems and Technologies in Scientific Research, Automation of Control and Production. HPCST 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1733. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-23744-7_14

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-23744-7_14

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-23743-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-23744-7

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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