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Climate Variability and Change in Tropical South America

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Tropical Marine Environments of Brazil


This chapter provides definitions of what climate variability and change are and an overview of observed and projected changes in climate in tropical South America. We present a review of the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the First Report launched in 1990 until the Sixth Report AR6 released in 2021. This review includes the evolution of models, projections and emission scenarios used by the IPCC since the 1990s. We also include a review of observed long term hydroclimate variability for some key regions in tropical South America that include biomes such as Pantanal, Amazon, the semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil and the Paraná-Plata river basin. For these regions, the focus is on extremes, such as droughts and floods. Temperature, rainfall and drought projections are assessed from the ensemble of global and regional model projections under global warming scenarios of 1.5 and 4.0 °C for various regions of South America. Finally, we also discuss some societal impacts of climate variability and change as well as knowledge gaps that need to be filled with new studies.

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This research was funded by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq, grant number 465501/2014-1; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) grant numbers 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6; the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES), grant number 88887.136402/2017-00; and CNPq grant 301397/2019-8 for José A. Marengo and Tercio Ambrizzi. It was partially funded by the Project Rede Pantanal from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations of Brazil (FINEP grant 01.20.0201.00). Tercio Ambrizzi also had partial support from CNPq 301397/2019-8. Michelle Reboita was funded by CNPq grants 306488/2020-5 and 420262/2018-0.

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Correspondence to Jose Antônio Marengo .

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Marengo, J.A. et al. (2023). Climate Variability and Change in Tropical South America. In: Dominguez, J.M.L., Kikuchi, R.K.P.d., Filho, M.C.d.A., Schwamborn, R., Vital, H. (eds) Tropical Marine Environments of Brazil. The Latin American Studies Book Series. Springer, Cham.

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