Abstract
This chapter provides definitions of what climate variability and change are and an overview of observed and projected changes in climate in tropical South America. We present a review of the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from the First Report launched in 1990 until the Sixth Report AR6 released in 2021. This review includes the evolution of models, projections and emission scenarios used by the IPCC since the 1990s. We also include a review of observed long term hydroclimate variability for some key regions in tropical South America that include biomes such as Pantanal, Amazon, the semiarid lands of Northeast Brazil and the Paraná-Plata river basin. For these regions, the focus is on extremes, such as droughts and floods. Temperature, rainfall and drought projections are assessed from the ensemble of global and regional model projections under global warming scenarios of 1.5 and 4.0 °C for various regions of South America. Finally, we also discuss some societal impacts of climate variability and change as well as knowledge gaps that need to be filled with new studies.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alho CJR, Mamede SB, Benites M et al (2019) Threats to the biodiversity of the Brazilian Pantanal due to land use and occupation. Ambiente & Sociedade. https://doi.org/10.1590/1809-4422asoc201701891vu2019L3AO
Almazroui M, Ashfaq M, Islam MN et al (2021) Assessment of CMIP6 performance and projected temperature and precipitation changes over South America. Earth Syst Environ 5:155–183. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00233-6
Alvala R, Cunha AP, Brito SS et al (2019) Drought monitoring in the Brazilian Semiarid region. An Acad Bras Ciênc. https://doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765201720170209
Ambrizzi T, Reboita MS, da Rocha RP et al (2019) The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1436:96–120. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13932
Andrelina B, Reboita MS (2021) Climatologia do Índice do Potencial de Gênese de Ciclones Tropicais nos Oceanos Adjacentes à América do Sul. An Inst Geociências. https://doi.org/10.11137/1982-3908_2021_44_39515
Aragão LEOC, Anderson LO, Fonseca MG et al (2018) 21st century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions. Nat Commun. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02771-y
Barichivich J, Gloor E, Peylin P et al (2018) Recent intensification of Amazon flooding extremes driven by strengthened Walker circulation. Sci Adv. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat8785
Bergier I, Assine ML, McGlue MM et al (2018) Amazon rainforest modulation of water security in the Pantanal wetland. Sci Total 619–620:1116–1125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.163
Brando PM, Balch JK, Nepstad DC et al (2014) Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions. PNAS 111(17):6347–6352. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1305499111
Brasil Neto RM, Santos CAG, Silva JFCB et al (2021) Evaluation of the TRMM product for monitoring drought over Paraíba State, northeastern Brazil: a trend analysis. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80026-5
Brito SSB, Cunha APMA, Cunningham CC et al (2018) Frequency, duration and severity of drought in the Semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Int J Climatol 38(2):517–529. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5225
Cai W, Borlace S, Lengaigne M et al (2014) Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 4:111–116. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2100
Cai W, Wang G, Santoso A et al (2015) Increased frequency of extreme La Niña events under greenhouse warming. Nat Clim Change 5:132–137. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2492
Cai W, McPhaden M, Grimm AM et al (2020) Climate impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on South America. Nat Rev Earth Environ 1:215–231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3
Chou SC, Lyra A, Mourão C et al (2014) Evaluation of the Eta simulations nested in three global climate models. Am J Clim Change 3:438–454. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2014.35039
Coppola E, Raffaele F, Giorgi F et al (2021) Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble. Clim Dyn 57:1293–1383. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05640-z
Cunha APMA, Zeri M, Deusdará Leal K et al (2019) Extreme drought events over Brazil from 2011 to 2019. Atmosphere. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10110642
Davidson EA, de Araújo AC, Artaxo P et al (2012) The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481:321–328. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10717
Doughty CE, Metcalfe DB, Girardin CAJ et al (2015) Drought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia. Nature 519:78–82. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14213
Engle NL, Lemos MC (2010) Unpacking governance: building adaptive capacity to climate change of river basins in Brazil. Global Environ Change 20:4–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.07.001
Espinoza JC, Ronchail J, Marengo JA et al (2019) Contrasting North-South changes in Amazon wet-day and dry day frequency and related atmospheric features (1981–2017). Clim Dyn 52:5413–5430. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4462-2
Fischer EM, Knutti R (2016) Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models. Nat Clim Change 6:986–991. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110
Foltz GR, Brandt P, Richter I et al (2019) The tropical Atlantic observing system. Front Mar Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00206
Gatti LV, Basso LS, Miller JB et al (2021) Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature 595:388–393. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6
Giorgi F, Gutowski WJ (2015) Regional dynamical downscaling and the CORDEX initiative. Annu Rev Environ Resour 40:467–490. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102014-021217
Giorgi F, Coppola E, Jacob D et al (2021) The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I initiative: description and highlight results from the initial analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0119.1
Gloor M, Brienen RJW, Galbraith D et al (2013) Intensification of the Amazon hydrological cycle over the last two decades. Geophys Res Lett 40:1729–1733. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50377
Goosse H, Kay JE, Armour KC et al (2018) Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions. Nat Commun. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0
Hartmann L (2015) Global physical climatology, 2nd edn. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Henson R (2011) The rough guide to climate change. Dorling Kindersley, UK
IPCC (1990) Climate change 1990: first assessment report. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (1995) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2021) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Iturbide M, Fernández J, Gutiérrez JM et al (2021) Repository supporting the implementation of FAIR principles in the IPCC-WG1 Atlas. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3691645
Ivory SJ, McGlue MM, Spera S et al (2019) Vegetation, rainfall, and pulsing hydrology in the Pantanal, the world’s largest tropical wetland. Environ Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4ffe
de Jesus EM, da Rocha RP, Crespo NM et al (2021) Future climate trends of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic basin in an ensemble of global and regional projections. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05958-8
Langerwisch F, Rost S, Gerten D et al (2013) Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin. Hydrol Syst Sci 17:2247–2262. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2247-2013
Langerwisch F, Walz A, Rammig A et al (2016) Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics. Earth Syst Dyn 7:953–968. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016
Lázaro WL, Oliveira-Júnior ES, Silva CJ et al (2020) Climate change reflected in one of the largest wetlands in the world: an overview of the Northern Pantanal water regime. Acta Limnol Bras. https://doi.org/10.1590/S2179-975X7619
Leggett J, Pepper WJ, Swart RJ et al (1992) Emissions scenarios for the IPCC: an update. In: Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SK (eds) WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1992—the supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment, pp 75–95
Li C, Zwiers F, Zhang X et al (2021) Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models. J Clim 34:3441–3460. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1
Llopart M, Coppola E, Giorgi F et al (2014) Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins. Clim Change 125:111–125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1140-1
Llopart M, Reboita M, Coppola et al (2018) Land use change over the Amazon forest and its impact on the local climate. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020149
López-Franca N, Zaninelli P, Carril A et al (2016) Changes in temperature extremes for 21st century scenarios over South America derived from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models. Clim Res 68:151–167. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01393
Magalhães AR (2016) Life and drought in Brazil. In: De Nys E, Engle NL, Magalhães AR (eds) Drought in Brazil—proactive management and policy. CRC Press, Boca Raton, pp 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315367415
Manabe S, Bryan K (1969) Climate calculations with a combined ocean-atmosphere model. J Atmos Sci 26:786–789. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026%3c0786:CCWACO%3e2.0.CO;2
Marengo JA, Torres RR, Alves LM (2017) Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future. Theor Appl Climatol 129:1189–1200. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1840-8
Marengo JA, Alves LM, Soares WR et al (2013) Two contrasting severe seasonal extremes in tropical South America in 2012: flood in Amazonia and drought in Northeast Brazil. J Clim 26:9137–9154. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00642.1
Marengo JA, Souza CM, Thonicke K et al (2018) Changes in climate and land use over the Amazon region: current and future variability and trends. Front Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00228
Marengo JA, Cunha APMA, Nobre CA et al (2020) Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 °C. Nat Hazards 103:2589–2611. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3
Marengo JA, Camarinha PI, Alves LM et al (2021a) Extreme rainfall and hydro-geo-meteorological disaster risk in 1.5, 2.0, and 4.0°C global warming scenarios: an analysis for Brazil. Front Clim. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.610433
Marengo JA, Cunha AP, Cuartas LA et al (2021b) Extreme drought in the Brazilian Pantanal in 2019–2020: characterization, causes, and impacts. Front Water. https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.639204
Marengo JA, Galdos MV, Challinor A et al (2021c) Drought in Northeast Brazil: a review of agricultural and policy adaptation options for food security. Clim Resilience Sustain. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.17
Marrafon VH, Reboita MS, da Rocha RP et al (2022) Classificação dos tipos de ciclones sobre o Oceano Atlântico Sul em projeções com o RegCM4 E MCGs. Rev Bras Climatol. https://doi.org/10.55761/abclima.v30i18.14603
McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, CA, 17–22 Jan 1993
McPhaden MJ, Santoso A, Cai W (2020) Introduction to El Niño Southern oscillation in a changing climate. In: McPhaden MJ, Santoso A, Cai (eds) El Niño southern oscillation in a changing climate. Wiley, New York, pp 3–20
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Naumann G, Podesta G, Marengo J et al (2021) The 2019–2021 extreme drought episode in La Plata Basin. European Union, Luxembourg. https://doi.org/10.2760/773
Nobre CA, Sampaio G, Borma LS et al (2016) Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. PNAS 113:10759–10768. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1605516113
Paca VHM, Espinoza-Dávalos GE, Moreira DM et al (2020) Variability of trends in precipitation across the Amazon River basin determined from the CHIRPS precipitation product and from station records. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051244
Pfahl S, O’Gorman PA, Fischer EM (2017) Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation. Nat Clim Change 7:423–427. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3287
Pinho PF, Marengo JA, Smith MS (2015) Complex socio-ecological dynamics driven by extreme events in the Amazon. Reg Environ Change 15:643–655. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0659-z
Pivello VR, Vieira I, Christianini AV et al (2021) Understanding Brazil’s catastrophic fires: causes, consequences and policy needed to prevent future tragedies. Perspect Ecol Conserv 19:233–255. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pecon.2021.06.005
Reboita MS, da Rocha RP, Dias CG et al (2014) Climate projections for South America: RegCM3 driven by HadCM3 and ECHAM5. Adv Meteorol. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/376738
Reboita MS, Ambrizzi T, Silva BA et al (2019) The South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone: present and future climate. Front Earth Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00008
Reboita MS, Ambrizzi T, Crespo NM et al (2021a) Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America climate. Ann N Y Acad Sci 1504:116–153. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14592
Reboita MS, Crespo NM, Dutra LMM et al (2021b) Iba: the first pure tropical cyclogenesis over the Western South Atlantic Ocean. J Geophys Res: Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033431
Reboita MS, Crespo NM, Torres JA et al (2021c) Future changes in winter explosive cyclones over the Southern Hemisphere domains from the CORDEX-CORE ensemble. Clim Dyn 57:3303–3322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05867-w
Reboita MS, Kuki CAC, Marrafon VH et al (2021d) South America climate change revealed through climate indices projected by GCMs and Eta-RCM ensembles. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05867-w
Reboita MS, Reale M, da Rocha RP et al (2021e) Future changes in the wintertime cyclonic activity over the CORDEX-CORE southern hemisphere domains in a multi-model approach. Clim Dyn 57:1533–1549. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05317-z
Reichstein M, Bahn M, Ciais P et al (2013) Climate extremes and the carbon cycle. Nature 500:287–295. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350
Schöngart J, Junk WJ (2020) Clima e hidrologia nas várzeas da Amazônia Central. In: Junk WJ, Piedade MTF, Wittmann F et al (eds) Várzeas Amazônicas Desafios para um Manejo Sustentável, pp 44–65
Science Panel for the Amazon 2021. Executive Summary of the Amazon Assessment Report 202. United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, USA
Seneviratne SI, Zhang X, Adnan A et al (2021) Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In: Masson-Delmotte BZ, Zhai VP, Pirani A (eds) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/. Accessed 14 Dec 2022
Shepherd TG (2014) Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections. Nat Geosci 7:703–708. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2253
Shukla PR, Skea J, Calvo Buendia E et al (2019) Climate change and land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/. Accessed 14 Dec 2022
Sun Q, Zwiers F, Zhang X et al (2020) A comparison of intra-annual and long-term trend scaling of extreme precipitation with temperature in a large-ensemble regional climate simulation. J Clim 33:9233–9245. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0920.1
Teichmann C, Jacob D, Remedio AR et al (2021) Assessing mean climate change signals in the global CORDEX-CORE ensemble. Clim Dyn 57:1269–1292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05494-x
Teodoro TA, Reboita MS, Llopart M et al (2021) Climate change impacts on the South American Monsoon System and its surface-atmosphere processes through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE projections. Earth Syst Environ 5:825–847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00265-y
Trenberth KE (2020) ENSO in the global climate system. In: McPhaden MJ, Santoso A, Cai (eds) El Niño southern oscillation in a changing climate. Wiley, New York, pp 21–37
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, Shepherd TG (2015) Attribution of climate extreme events. Nat Clim Change 5:725–730. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657
Trenberth KE, Branstator GW, Karoly D et al (1998) Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures. J Geophys Res—Oceans 103:14291–14324. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01444
Vendruscolo J, Perez Marin AM, Santos Felix E et al (2021) Monitoring desertification in semiarid Brazil: using the Desertification Degree Index (DDI). Land Degrad Dev 32:684–698. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.3740
Van Vuuren DP, Stehfest E, Den Elzen MGJ, et al (2011) RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature change below 2°C. Clim Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3
Vieira RMSP, Sestini MF, Tomasella J et al (2020) Characterizing spatio-temporal patterns of social vulnerability to droughts, degradation and desertification in the Brazilian northeast. Environ Sustain Indic. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2019.100016
Wang C, Deser C, Yu JY et al (2017) El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): a review. In: Glynn PW, Manzello DP, Enochs IC (eds) Coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific. Springer, Amsterdam, pp 85–106
Wang XY, Li X, Zhu J et al (2018) The strengthening of Amazonian precipitation during the wet season driven by tropical sea surface temperature forcing. Environ Res Lett 13:94015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aadbb9
Zhang W, Jiang F, Stuecker MF et al (2021) Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño. Nat Commun. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23411-6
Acknowledgements
This research was funded by the National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 under CNPq, grant number 465501/2014-1; Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) grant numbers 2014/50848-9 and 2017/09659-6; the National Coordination for High Level Education and Training (CAPES), grant number 88887.136402/2017-00; and CNPq grant 301397/2019-8 for José A. Marengo and Tercio Ambrizzi. It was partially funded by the Project Rede Pantanal from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovations of Brazil (FINEP grant 01.20.0201.00). Tercio Ambrizzi also had partial support from CNPq 301397/2019-8. Michelle Reboita was funded by CNPq grants 306488/2020-5 and 420262/2018-0.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Marengo, J.A. et al. (2023). Climate Variability and Change in Tropical South America. In: Dominguez, J.M.L., Kikuchi, R.K.P.d., Filho, M.C.d.A., Schwamborn, R., Vital, H. (eds) Tropical Marine Environments of Brazil. The Latin American Studies Book Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21329-8_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21329-8_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-21328-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-21329-8
eBook Packages: Biomedical and Life SciencesBiomedical and Life Sciences (R0)