Why the NASA Approach Will Likely Fail to Send Humans to Mars for Many Decades to Come

Abstract

Mars missions are fundamentally different from lunar missions. Use of the Moon would provide some risk reduction for Mars, but not in proportion to the investment required. ISRU on the Moon is vastly different than ISRU on Mars. Despite previous work, the feasibility and cost of human missions to Mars remains murky. DRM-1 and DRM-3 pointed the way toward Mars missions in the 1990s. DRA-5 emerged around 2009 providing a broad analysis of several mission options, but only a summary was published. As of 2014–2015, NASA adopted the Evolvable Mars Campaign. The general approach involved developing “evolutionary capabilities” but it seems likely that the EMC was just another NASA boondoggle based on vague and ephemeral notions using glossy viewgraphs, lacking detailed engineering calculations. It will end up being scrapped for good reasons, as NASA moves on to its next long-range plan. In the 2019–2022 period, a top-down edict from NASA management refocused on short- stay nuclear powered missions. This is likely to murky the picture further. The critical advanced technologies needed to enable human missions to Mars include reliable ECLSS and long-term life support systems, large-scale aerocapture and aeroassisted entry, descent and landing, long-term cryogenic propellant storage in space and on Mars, methane-oxygen propulsion systems, nuclear reactor for surface power, radiation protection, mitigation of reduced gravity, and ISRU and/or nuclear thermal propulsion.