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The Real Estate Investment Market: The Current State and Why Advances Are Needed

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Advanced REIT Portfolio Optimization

Abstract

Even more than the Great Recession, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely tested the assumptions on which many real estate models are based. This chapter vividly illustrates this through quotes from financial news publications. These news articles address the potentially irreversible changes in financial and social systems that impact real estate investing, providing the motivation for the central topics addressed in this book: portfolio optimization, backtesting, risk management, option pricing to enable hedging strategies, and the incorporation of ESG considerations into real estate investing. Critically, these topics are presented under a unified rational finance framework, solely in the context of the real estate investment market, using model portfolios of REIT-based assets.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news/office/overall-manhattan-office-leasing-volume-hit-its-lowest-point-this-century-in-2020-107283?utm_source=push

  2. 2.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/city-apartment-reits-await-the-return-to-the-office-11609851601?st=6ckq1zhh1479m n7&reflink=article_gmail_share

  3. 3.

    https://www.globest.com/2021/01/12/the-metrics-you-should-be-watching-in-2021/?slreturn=20210128174522

  4. 4.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-forces-co-working-firms-to-recast-their-business-model-11612875600

  5. 5.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/zillow-stock-soars-to-new-highs-as-residential-real-estate-moves-online-516130 65333?st=17x6d4eako3tw0t

  6. 6.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/market-news/article-premarket-world-shares-climb-ahead-of-yellen-speech-earnings-in-focus/

  7. 7.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/should-i-become-a-landlord-11611237640

  8. 8.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-top-real-estate-fund-managers-are-preparing-for-a-post-covid-world-51613 993400

  9. 9.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/hotel-sellers-use-car-sales-model-to-finance-lodging-deals-11614076202

  10. 10.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/doj-attorneys-to-appeal-cdc-eviction-moratorium-ruling-2021-2

  11. 11.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-home-prices-drop-increase-predictions-forecast-2021-5

  12. 12.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-on-commercial-real-estate-undeterred-by-empty-offices-and-hotel-rooms-11621330204?st=9qguj7qtf2f8qv4&reflink=article_gmail_share

  13. 13.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-reit-plans-to-appoint-katie-keenan-as-ceo-11621424701?st=iaz6zfqdhj07 wny&reflink=article_gmail_share

  14. 14.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/house-prices-are-soaring-rents-are-flat-what-does-it-mean-for-inflation-516215 25998?st=8ih1bt5c6uwis7h

  15. 15.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-home-prices-push-to-record-high-slowing-pace-of-purchases-11621605953?st= j4ffe5ful1nc4ke&reflink=article_gmail_share

  16. 16.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bet-on-a-rental-resurgence-as-housing-boom-ages-heres-how-51621624502?st= m8bog0utm3p5krk

  17. 17.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-25/u-s-bankruptcy-tracker-real-estate-breaks-chapter-11-lull

  18. 18.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-tight-housing-market-thousands-of-homes-are-reserved-for-certain-buyers-11622 021400

  19. 19.

    U.S. Internal Revenue Code (IRC) sections 856(a), 856(c), and 856(h).

  20. 20.

    See, for example, Guerard et al. (2013) for a comparison of optimization under mean variance and optimization under CVaR in portfolios that utilize a general stock-selection model.

  21. 21.

    See, for example, https://etfdb.com/esg-investing/environmental-issues/green-building/#etfs__esg&sort_name=sather_esg_fields.value&sort_order=desc&page=1

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Lindquist, W.B., Rachev, S.T., Hu, Y., Shirvani, A. (2022). The Real Estate Investment Market: The Current State and Why Advances Are Needed. In: Advanced REIT Portfolio Optimization. Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, vol 30. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15286-3_1

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