Abstract
This chapter discusses the historical and socio-material processes of migration, globalization, and population in order to explore what challenges societies faced in this regard and how these interacted with the discursive frameworks of the 1980s. The analysis systematically moves its focus from global levels to Europe and then to Eastern Europe. First, I demonstrate on the basis of statistical modeling that migration levels were heightened by demographic changes and cumulative and spatial processes, combined with the cycle of economic opening-up, which mechanisms were extremely strong on the European continent and within it, in Eastern Europe. The chapter also shows the special historical conjunctions in Europe and in Eastern Europe (economic marginalization and the collapse of embedded socialist systems), identifies the varieties of migratory capitalisms present from the 1990s onwards, and explores the mechanisms behind the extreme reaction of some Eastern European states within an overall global and a European historical context. I argue that instead of palpable explanations, changes in material conditions are behind the rise of antagonizing historical and political blocs concerning migration.
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Notes
- 1.
While writing this book, I collaborated with Zoltán Csányi in the preparation of the multivariate analysis database and statistical model. However, the analysis I provide in this book is much more extensive, longer, and more complex, and thus, only some parts correspond to the joint study we published in Hungarian (Melegh & Csányi, 2021).
- 2.
In Hobsbawm’s words: “The most dramatic and far-reaching social change of the second half of this [20th] century and the one which cuts us off forever from the world of the past is the death of the peasantry” (Hobsbawm, 1995, p. 289).
- 3.
It should be noted that, in an implicit or explicit way, almost all migration theories see income inequalities as one of the main drivers of migration (de Haas, 2010a, p. 14). Instead of income inequalities, criticism refers to people’s perceptions about income as a determinant of individual migratory decisions. Melegh et al. (2013, 2016) and Thornton (2012) suggest that people are generally aware of the developmental differences between countries and there is a great deal of consensus around these differences. Therefore, individual perceptions are not included in this study.
- 4.
Sanderson and Kentor (2008) found that capital inflows to the primary sector have an effect, while the opposite effect is found for the secondary sector. It should be noted that in the case of Eastern Europe, where a large socialist industrial sector collapsed, the effect may be reversed. This will be demonstrated later. It is also important to note that the migration balance is the dependent variable here and this may imply that foreign capital inflows increase immigration and thus “disturb” the migration balance.
- 5.
These diagrams were also presented at the EPC conference in Budapest, June 2014, by Heinz Fassmann, Attila Melegh, Ramon Bauer, Elisabeth Musil, and Kathrin Gruber under the title “Migration cycles and transitions in South-East Europe: from emigration to immigration countries?” This discussion is, however, entirely my own interpretation.
- 6.
Within the framework of the SEEMIG project that took place between 2012 and 2014, we analyzed the historical migration and statistical systems of eight southeastern European countries (Slovakia, Romania, Austria, Italy, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Hungary, and Serbia).
- 7.
I am aware that changes in the stock are interconnected with demographic processes in the given diaspora, and that an aging population can decrease even without outmigration (e.g., involving groups of elderly who live in Hungary but were originally born in Slovakia). However, changes that considerably exceed the regional average in five years’ time, in all probability signal significant immigration or outmigration.
- 8.
The data are quite inconsistent. For Europe, the dataset usually covers the whole stock born abroad, while in the case of other countries the UNHCR’s data on refugees were mechanically added to the dataset that includes people born abroad and foreign citizens. However, these data are still sufficient to track the main trends in terms of proportions.
- 9.
By 2019, the proportion had reached 11%.
- 10.
Economic history has long been concerned with changes in demographic and economic weight (Bairoch, 1982, 1997, 2000; Bairoch & Kozul-Wright, 1995). József Böröcz pointed out in connection with global transformations that it is crucial to conduct a sociological analysis of the share of GDP. He demonstrated for the EU and the former socialist bloc the decline and the problem of preserving economic weight, but he did not link it to migration data (Böröcz, 2009). Böröcz used Maddison’s data, calculated from the 1990 Geary-Khamis USD. The data I present above are different.
- 11.
In 2014, Burhan Qurbani made an instructive fiction film entitled Wir sind jung. Wir sind stark, which illustrates the socio-psychological mechanism of aggression that can arise from competitive subordination (Qurbani, 2015).
- 12.
World Bank Development Indicators, GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$) (World Bank, 2021a).
- 13.
World Bank Development Indicators, Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) (modelled ILO estimate) (World Bank, 2021b).
- 14.
The SEEMIG project that I led investigated emigration from Serbia and Hungary under the leadership of Zsuzsa Blaskó between 2012 and 2014 with new methodology connected to labor force surveys. Emigrants were those persons reported by non-emigrant household members as living abroad habitually. About the project results, see Blaskó (2014), Blaskó and Gödri (2014), and Melegh et al. (2014).
- 15.
I am indebted to the Population Statistics Unit of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (Marcell Kovács and others) for their help compiling the database. The results were first published in Melegh and Papp (2018).
- 16.
No FDI data are available for Serbia between 1990 and 2007 so this country was left out of the analysis.
- 17.
No data are available for Albania, but according to the Albanian Statistical Office, a total of 14,162 foreigners were living in the country in 2018. A population of this size certainly does not pose a challenge or represent competition to native residents (Instat, 2020).
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Melegh, A. (2023). Historical Material Structures and Processes. In: The Migration Turn and Eastern Europe. Marx, Engels, and Marxisms. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14294-9_3
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